MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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12:30PM Update
Rita continues to weaken early this afternoon, with the pressure in the storm having risen to 913mb. The storm is well into the middle of a concentric eyewall cycle, as advertised last night, and should complete that cycle later today as a weaker system. The track forecast takes the system to near the TX/LA border, though drastic shifts west or east are unfortunately possible depending upon the evolution of the pattern. The potential for 25" of rain after the storm moves inland is being advertised by the as well. More to come later.
7 AM Update
Hurricane has maintained its intensity overnight but now has dropped to 170MPH winds this morning, The pressure has risen above 900 again, and the storm has found a more northern component to the motion, so tracks have shifted right, to the right side of the Bay near Galveston. And may shift again, either way.
Regardless anywhere along that part of the coast in the cone needs to prepare.
Intensity wise with the new track, it stays over the warmer currents for longer, but more shear is forecast in the future, so some weeakening is expected before landfall, but when and where are important with that.
The track has trended north and east of late, and it will be interesting to see if this continues or even reverses.
11PM Update
Hurricane remains the 3rd strongest storm ever recorded in the Atlantic basin by pressure.
The pressure now sits at 897mb (26.49 in), with maximum sustained winds of 150kt/170-175mph. It is still moving generally westward, with a hint of a northerly component.
Slight additional strengthening is forecast within the next 12 hours before slow weakening to landfall as a intense category 4 or 5 storm along the central Texas coastline.
It is currently forecast to landfall just west of Galveston. Hurricane Watches may be upgraded to warnings tomorrow morning for portions of the hurricane watch area.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Check out the blogs below, Clark Evans has more, including information of potential impacts along the coastline from New Orleans to Corpus Christi and inland to northern Texas.
Event-Related Links
Emergency Management:
Texas Division of Emergency Management
Links to Texas County Emergency Management
Radars
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Houston/Galveston, TX Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi, TX Long Range Radar
Brownsville, TX Long Range Radar
Lake Charles, LA Long Range Radar
New Orelans, LA Long Range Radar
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Corpus Christi, TX, Houston/Galveston, Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Brownsville, TX
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Video/Audio
Local Media/Television
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston
Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio
Newspapers
Houston Chronicle
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, is doing his live audio show as approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is in Galveston, Texas. see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports n the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX not affiliated with the real
Reply and let us know of other links.
Rita
Animated model plots of
Google Map plot of
Floater satellite loops (With forecast track overlay):
Rita Floater Visible Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Shortwave Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Loop
Rita Water Vapor Loop
Philippe
Animated model plots of Philippe
Edited by Clark (Thu Sep 22 2005 12:31 PM)
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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This is UNBELIEVEABLE!!!!! 897mb???? WOW!!!!! God help the people in 's path. It's not going to be good. 
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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I just authored a post in the other thread that I'll leave up to the mods to transfer if they deem it worthy.
I hope all the Texans in the audience in the cone, are already finalizing their preparations before the nearest hotels are in Kansas  (I remember Jeanne evacuees from FL staying in North Carolina - no room for them in the inns)
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dwlobo
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 21
Loc: Palmetto, FL
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Just got off the phone with my sister. She lives in Houston. They're real nervous. I told her to get out.
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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People need to leave this one. NO JOKE. Get out of town.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Convergence
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
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I don't want to sound pedantic but that picture is labelled 997 mb 
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oil trader
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
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Quote:
People need to leave this one. NO JOKE. Get out of town.
This is a kind of nightmare. All those worst case scenarios were overwhelmed by reality. I am just asking at this point to those erudite people in this forum if there is anything could happen to have some type of relieved ending or we are definitively condemned to expect an inevitable tragedy.
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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SUCH LOW PRESSURE ,WILL IT MAKE IT LOWER?
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Is it me or does the storm look to be slowing and also jogged alot to the south the last few frames.....Now unlike the "its going north people early today" im only asking if anyone see's the same thing i do in the IF LOOP?
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Steeler Fan
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 13
Loc: Sarasota, FL
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Sir Cane, what is the source of the pressure info. you are getting from? Truly scary stuff. Does that not make this the lowest recorded pressure for an Altantic Basin hurricane yet?
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"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." - Aristotle
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The official advisory has the pressure at 897mb. This is an estimate because it has been a few hours since a plane was in the storm.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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With progged to make landfall at CAT 3 or above. I don't see anything that would change that.
With One Exception. A right turn into the Western Coast of Louisiana or East Coast of Tecas.
I'm not wishing on anyone. Just basing that statement on the topography and the sparse population in those areas.
Topography is similar to the Coastal Plains and Wetlands east of New Orleans. With more trees.
That turn and a huge drop in windspeed are the only safe zones. And they probably won't occur.
If You Live in ANY of the Evacuation Zones in SE Texas. Please evacuate as soon as possible.
This, in my opinion includes the areas of Chambers County outside the Evacuation Zone.
Anahuac, High Island, Port Bolivar and points East to Include Cameron and probably Cameron Parish, Louisiana.
A storm surge of proportions would likely level everything inland to a Half mile. leveled places in Hancock County some 2 km inland. That's 1.2 miles.
Please leave as soon as you can.
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Most intense in the atlantic basin was 1935 labor day 892MB. is probably the most intense for the GOM.
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Twistergal
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Loc: Great Plains
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I'd say any and all evacuees from (and ) are more than welcome here in Kansas, but geez, the way Mother Nature has been treating us lately, we'd probably get struck by a series of F5's once those poor folks showed up here! Never thought I'd ever think such a thought, but living in "Tornado Alley" doesn't seem like such a bad thing compared to what the folks down along the coast have to face each year.
Just wanted to add, I've been one of those "anonymous lurkers" here for awhile and a tornado storm chaser for a number of years. This site is extremely informative and I thank everyone for the good reads, especially to those of us who are land-locked and haven't been through hurricanes before. Tornadoes will always be more than enough for me!
Thank y'all again and may God (or any other higher power, if you believe in such) protect us all.
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Toto, we're still in Kansas!
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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sorry...Gilbert 888 I think...I know its #1
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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garrison
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
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Ive been following this board more than I'd admit to my wife this season. Would you folks agree with me that the 2 primary influences which could weaken are and GOM temps? Why is it that I've seen several depictions of GOM water temps over the past few days and all of them look different. Can anyone tell me which one is most accurate and why? thanks
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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dude and another 12 hours in the GOM loop WILL BE THE STRONGEST !
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Just looking at the recon, and at flight level there is at least a 40 degree (F) difference between the inside and outside of the eyewall...wow
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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ok not everyone has me on ignore(well i dont think) but last few hrs i see a south jog anyone else see this?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
ok not everyone has me on ignore(well i dont think) but last few hrs i see a south jog anyone else see this?
Yep...you are seeing correctly...
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Thu Sep 22 2005 12:10 AM)
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