nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/230542.shtml
New Advisory is out..
Good news
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher
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Marg--I understand you are busy--just thought given your previous posts (very adept and full of technical info) that you might have some observations at your finger tips. It is okay to ask even stupid questions in this forum?
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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Is it me or did NO short Range NWS radar just go out?
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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We will be leaving shortly. Just wanted to thank everyone on the forum for the information I get here.
We all know if you live on the coast long enough eventually you'll be visited by a hurricane. Talk to ya'll later.
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Take care, Karen... 
--------------------
Allison
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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katfive I answered it when I had a chance...go back and review the posts you'll see it, #56786.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
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I f I look on the infrared loop, I would say, that there are a lot of positiv signs last two hours. Cloud top temperatures are generally raising. The eye looks not that concentric anymore. It´s very ragged. A lot of wobbling. Dryer air seems to be entrained from the west. So, it seems to me that has some serious "diggestiv" problems.
It also seems to track somewhere near the TX/LA-border, what shouldn´t be the worst, compared to other possibilities.
So, I would hope, that this would continue and that we`ll have a weaker at landfall than expected.
Edited by Raymond (Fri Sep 23 2005 07:58 AM)
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Susan in Jupiter, FL
Verified CFHC User
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I haven't been able to access the NO or Lake Charles radar, either.
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Susan in Jupiter, FL Survived:
Andrew, Irene, Charley, Francis,
Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Wilma
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water, another potential site comes up. This snippet is from the outlook.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA...AND A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
The low looks like it spun off of Philippe. All we can do is watch and see.
One note about and the tropical systems of late, there have been so many "wow, what a storm" type of systems that it is getting hard to say that anymore.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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wind wise she might be weaker but expect a significant storm surge, lessons learned from Isadore (Biloxi 03), 04 and last but not least .... should bring with her a strong Cat 4 or even 5 storm surge.... worse case would be to hit directly at a right angle, which she probably won't do, but might be close
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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927mb, but she's over the warm eddy:
349
URNT12 KNHC 231036
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/10:07:30Z
B. 26 deg 53 min N
091 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2468 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 233 deg 114 kt
G. 139 deg 019 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 14 C/ 3052 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 2118A OB 13
MAX FL WIND 126 KT NE QUAD 08:25:00 Z
SOUTH 20 PERCENT OF EYE WALL BULGING OUTWARD 8NM; REST CIRCULAR.
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jr928
Weather Guru
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sat does show her beginning to look very ragged and falling off of her tight spin. won't help surge any but should keep winds from being so wide and devastating as was . only hope she continues this for the rest of the day.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Yeah, I'm seeing that with the IR, but it also looks like she's growing in size and that's part of why she's looking ragged. She also looks to have ingested a small amount of dry air which is working its way in.
I think she's going to weaken only becuase her wind field is spreading. She should stay a Cat 4 or strong Cat 3 until landfall. I don't think she'll regain Cat 5 anymore.
--RC
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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also signs of some dry air on the IR floater loop... see what affect if any this might have down the road.... she could wind down to a Cat 2 and the surge will still be catastrophic for SW LA....if it hits at the LA/TX line, coastal flooding occurring wide spread throughout coastal MS.... right now reports are 3-4 feet above normal in Hancock county and evacuations are ongoing....
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
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Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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Yep. Some dry air is getting in. That's great. Also she might hit north of galveston/houston which is also great. The bad part is Louisiana could get more surge and wind. It's very possible that Houston will get what gave me here in Ft. lauderdale. If that is all they get wind wise that would be great. I hope the computer models are wrong with her stalling or looping to. The Houston traffic is amazing on the news but you know what they say prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Hopefully is the end of the season. I'm done!
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I just checked the strom position in relation to the eddy - it's over the eastern edge of the warm eddy now, and the strong burst of convection on the band west of the core is directly over the warm eddy. I think we are starting to see the effects of this warm water, but dry air is inhibiting development of the system right now.
Models are very worrisome for track, with almost every one of them stalling it over Texas somewhere. We're looking at the potential for major flooding.
Wind field is ENORMOUS! http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt02.gif
---
On a different tropical note, the overnight TWD has 3 waves out in the Atlantic, two of which appear to have the possibility to become invests in the near future.
--RC
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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that makes two of us... I think I done for a long long time.... when I get my little FEMA trailer on the beach I don't even want a depression to come to Biloxi as it will be in my front yard about 50 feet from hwy 90, and another 100 yards from the GOM...
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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
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Random Chaos did say:Quote:
927mb, but she's over the warm eddy:
349
URNT12 KNHC 231036
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
...
H. 927 mb
I. 14 C/ 3052 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
...
SOUTH 20 PERCENT OF EYE WALL BULGING OUTWARD 8NM; REST CIRCULAR.
Yeah, the eyewall's now closed and she's got the warm water, both of which should help with strengthening. However, there's only a 3 degree temperature difference and she's not circular, so I suspect we might see a little more weakening before she starts to strengthen. At the least, I would think she's going to take a little time to strengthen, and we're not going to see anything explosive.
Chris
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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We can really see the steering currents that will push it into eastern TX now:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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(yet another post...)
For those of you wondering what kind of rain to expect, here is the 60 hour rainfall ending 72 hours from now (GFS 06Z):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p60_072l.gif
remember that yellow is 9+ inches...and with some forcasters saying 25-30 inches possible, you could have some areas that are a LOT more than 9 inches.
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