Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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In the latest recon (00:10Z), the is having a tiny bit of an effect. As the inner eyewall breaks down, the eye is filling with humid slightly cooler air, and consequently the pressure has risen just a bit, however the temp diff and max flt winds remain the same, or very close. The outer eyewall continues to contract and the inner eyewall remnants to expand (from CO16-35 to CO17-32).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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wxman007, did you or anyone see Accuweather on Fox today? I was at lunch and could only see it from a distance and could not hear it. I got the impression that there was a thought from them that could loop back into the Gulf post stall?? Any thoughts there, anything to support the possibility, or is that not what was said at all. I only base that off the location they had @ on Monday and the positions of the Highs?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
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Good news!
They just had a guy from the army Core of engineers on CNN and said levees could hold up to 9 inches of rainfall in NO.
Thats great!
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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I just read Joe's tropical weather outlook. He's forecasting another close in development next week from his judgement of the tropics. He's been pretty good about the close-in stuff so I wouldn't be suprised if it were to happen.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Movement has been basically due west over the last 2 hours now, as indicated by both the satellite loops and recon fixes.
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Texascoast
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 7
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Quote:
Do you think that Wobble to the left had to do with hitting the edge of that eddy? Just some food for thought. What do you think of that?
I cant belive that no one could give me a respons for my question. 
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The 18Z suggests a loop back into the Gulf, but it has been all over the place with after it makes landfall. The 12Z run sent the remains SW into Mexico.
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
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Cane, you have a link?
Thanks
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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733
URNT12 KNHC 230045
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/00:27:50Z
B. 26 deg 00 min N
089 deg 57 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 114 kt
G. 130 deg 021 nm
H. EXTRAP 916 mb
I. 16 C/ 2439 m
J. 20 C/ 2436 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SW
M. CO18-35
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A 01 OB 20
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NE QUAD 23:21:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
OUTER EYEWALL APPEARED CLOSED
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
Good news!
They just had a guy from the army Core of engineers on CNN and said levees could hold up to 9 inches of rainfall in NO.
Thats great!
The best news is that if the corps says it'll hold 9 inches, it'll probably hold 11. God bless those corps dudes but they sure are a conservative bunch. 
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
Cane, you have a link?
Thanks
Here is the link:
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.as...=jb_free_column
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Argh - miscontrued..
As far as the "snap shot" statement, I apologize if that some how insinuated anything to you.. In fact, I was merely stating it as a means to agree with me, as in: "people" shouldn't do that. And, yes, in general terms.
As far as specifically regarding models, I was speaking in terms of the operational models: , ECM, , GGEM, UKMET and the only barotropic model that avails to me, the , which is actually parameterized off the initialization.
Granted, I did not factor in the ensemble clusters of the respective camps.
I believe if you spoke with just about anyone in the field that studies the models daily, weather for professionally or novice, they would concur that there was a left track bias in everyone of these listed above, up until almost the day before finally came onto shore.
As far as the governing synoptics are concern. There has been a "generalized" l/w axis situated near 120W and a well teleconnected flat ridge over central plains that occasionally bulges N and ENEwards in coverage. This pattern orientation is one that has quite frankly prevailed most of the summer and still, is way place up here in the NE are having some unusually warm days so late in the year. Anyway, not to digress...point being, the "generalized" guidance must answer to these global based influencers... Details come down to mesoscale events, storm relative indices of all different kinds, etc.. Fact of the matter is, I really only meant to comment on the fact that since the pattern at large is predominantly one way, it is reasonable - albeit risky - to assume that these hurricanes coming into that arena may behave similarly.
Any thoughts?
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modeleste
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 10
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Quote:
Movement has been basically due west over the last 2 hours now, as indicated by both the satellite loops and recon fixes.
Yep-- first time for such a change in direction trend in the last day and 1/2. Could mean something. Something good for NO.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Texascoast, it is unlikely that a major storm like would be affected (track-wise) by such small-scale variations in heat content of the Gulf. The track has seemed to coincide with the gradient in heat content on that one image, though.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA.
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 75.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 104.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 20.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 7.5 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): WSW ( 253 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 27.65 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.38 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.0 °F
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Yes, I'm seeing that.... Hmmm. I'm almost inclined thinking that local convective processes working in tandem with EWRC events are the culprit, too.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Larry King just said Max Mayfield to join coming up
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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I. 16 C/ 2439 m
J. 20 C/ 2436 m
looks like she's starving for warm water. I bet this will change quite a bit over the next 12 hours.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Tas, the next buoy in line from that one...probably the most important one is sitting on a dock someplace waiting to be reconnected to its mooring line sometime in April 2006.(thanks !) So enjoy what you're seeing because the next buoy readings you're gonna see are at the mouths of rivers/ports.
It seems like any station thats on an oil platform is completely nonfunctional. Dunno if thats post or just bastard oil companies who don't service scientific gear.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I know got the message back from that, was left with that one, there are many that are offline
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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