CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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I wouldn't say little changes don't matter when a storm is Less than two days away from landfall. But yeah, I agree about the rest of your statement.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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O.K i need an answer, how far in altitude from the surface of the water to the first layer of banding with is.
Joe "B" just reported on FNC that he is still predicting a hit from to take place in GAL/HOU and up the 45 corridor
(For what it is worth)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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just got home looks like the track of wnw is holding unlike early when people were talking about N.O looks like a jog west.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
Just saw on CNN the latest sat and it looks like a hard left turn to the west...what in the world is going on?????
The mayor of Houston said for any residents of non-threatened areas to stay home and not evacuate.....
Wobble...wobble...she will probably do this until landfall...they all do! I think they pretty much have her pinned down to the area between Galveston/East Bay over to the Lake Charles/TX-LA State line area for landfall. Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, and everything in between will be in trouble come Sat. morning. The only good aspect of this landfall location is that most of the immediate coastal area is swampy until you get inland around the I-10 corridor. The bad part of this landfall area is that there are a large number of oil producing platforms/rigs along the coast. I would probably lean towards the western edge of this area.
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 55
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Quote:
Deep purples are now entrained into once again, an indication that the cloud tops are cooling at a rapid pace.
yes, and notice that 's sw zone is moving into the warm eddy....just pulling that heat up on its south side...very visible on the ir.
joe b. just showed a disturbance between two ridges moving away in the last few hours, and might be possibly an early indication that the high over tx is going to start pulling westward. not good news for houston.
rita has seemingly followed the warm eddy off the loop current....weird!
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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I wouldn't wait to fill up your cars. Do it now when you can afford it. Why, if by chance comes up into GAL/HOU,area, there are 26 oil-refinieries there. You do the math.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Outer eye is 3nm smaller than the last recon (10 posts back or so):
391
URNT12 KNHC 230159
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/01:44:40Z
B. 26 deg 03 min N
090 deg 07 min W
C. 700 mb 2381 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 227 deg 109 kt
G. 136 deg 017 nm
H. 917 mb
I. 12 C/ 3015 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO18-32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2018A OB 11
MAX FL WIND 123 KT NE QUAD 00:04:20 Z
INNER EYEWALL RAGGED AND OPEN S-E
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Greta and Fox News are going to have a Hurricane Hunter that just came out of on next segment
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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I am not sure of any recent papers/studies on the subject matter, but here what I learned in tropical meteorology:
There is a very brief time dependence requirement between a cyclones encountering of differentiating SSTs. The trick is, the forward motion of the hurricane can not be too fast or too slow. If too fast, the system has too much momentum stowed in the translational vector, such that the coupled lower boundary layer sea-surface interface does not have time to register.. That is why New England (every couple few decades) gets a good "Long Island Express", there is relative cold water S of Long Island; where as the N wall of the Gulf stream is about 38degrees N extending ENE out into the open Atlantic. What happens is the steering field is humming right along, the hurricane picks of translational speed and punches deep into hostile environment before it has time to weaken substantially.
Rite, by comparison, is moving quite a bit slower... the coupled lower boundary layer to sea-surface interface probably does have enough time to impose a track behavior nuance, because by very nature, the hurricane is making use of upper oceanic heat content. If for some reason the water is that substantially warmer to the W of 's track, it is possible that could impart a tug, or shift W...
But there's a problem with this... The thing is, there is a ridge currently over TX, particularly the N sections of the state...I'm not sure how could really garner much momentum in that direction given that as she nears, there is ever increasing conflict - perhaps this is where TPC is getting the shear from...
Speaking of shear... Deeply evolved tropical cyclones have the capacity to create a kind of protective shell about their circumvallate.. This is because they have deep layer subsidence associated, which tends to deflect lighter shear fields from encroaching....If the shear is going to get "that" strong than forget about it - the hurricane is no match. But in some in situ scenarios, the approach of a weak mid lvl shear is noted to have been shunted away by very powerful hurricane centered outward max fluxes.
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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What matters is how those little changes add up to an overall direction and trend, so in that context you are correct, the little changes do add up so together they mean something.
Bill
Donna, Cleo, Betsy, Andrew, (there were others but these are the unforgettable ones)
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oil trader
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
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With the new movement due west will allow to keep his forecast path intact for tonight. Tomorrow they will start to try to catch up the storm again but toward left. Final destination: Galvestone/Houston.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I wouldn't wait to fill up your cars. Do it now when you can afford it. Why, if by chance comes up into GAL/HOU,area, there are 26 oil-refinieries there. You do the math.
When the Governor of a state on the other side of the GOM tells its residents to conserve fuel... that's telling. Of course, his brother was the Governor of Texas once...
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-922bushgascrisis,0,7974047.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines
Six hours ago I was thinking that the Galveston/Houston area would be spared and that would hit the TX/LA border as a Cat 4. She's not cooperating in that regard. Looks on IR like she's well on her was to 165+ again... and back on track for Galveston. Yes, the water is not as hot closer to the coast, so the storm should weaken, but the surge is already being generated.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Given the "climate" of the posts lately, it couldn't hurt anything...
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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I don't think will change their track much at 11pm. Honestly though, If I was in Houston and have not evacuated and lived on the western side of the away from Galveston Bay I would probably stay home. I think it would be more dangerous to be out in the neverending track jam to Dallas and other locations inland.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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If you look at the infra-red shots, you will see the deepening purples now surrounding the storm. This is a solid indication that the cloud tops are cooling, and cooling rapidly. What does that mean, only one thing, it is getting it's act together, CAT 5 tonight into the morning while over this eddy.
Edited by The Force 2005 (Thu Sep 22 2005 10:24 PM)
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Sorry to get away from But we have a situation with Philippe. It appears,
As Philippe was moving north a couple days ago there was an upper low moving SW around
The top of Philippe It seemed then to be entraining moisture from Philippe and was beginning
Pop corn convection. The upper low has continued sw west as it is now near 25 north 61 west. It
Is Trying to work to the surface I would watch this feature as it could be left behind as the
Frontal zone takes the other part of Philippe out, and a high pressure builds into the north Atlantic
Over the weekend.
Also a tropical wave is approaching from the southeast which should aid with moisture.
It’s quite possible we could have another development In the Bahamas or Sw Atlantic by
Early next week. I’m thinking it could hang around and do an Ophelia or jeanne.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
If you look at the infra-red shots, you will see the deepening purples now surrounding the storm. This is a solid indication that the cloud tops are cooling, and cooling rapidly. What does that mean, only one thing, it is getting it's act together, CAT 5 tonight into the morning while over this eddy.
There is no deep purple currently, only red... and even that is less than it was two hours ago. The storm appears to be growing in size once again, though. Eye looks cloud filled at the surface. Definately mixed signals, but it could strengthen to cat 5 by the intermediate advisory if not sooner.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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eyewall is open and ragged.
linky
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Sportsfreak1989s
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Lafayette, Louisiana
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Exactly what is the possibility of this thing coming within 20-30 miles of Lafayette, Louisiana ? I have been "iffy" about the track to the Houston area. I just don't see it going there for some reason. I think it is going to hit Port Author or some where east of it. Im getting pretty worried about it coming to Lafayette. I don't wanna go to sleep tonight because I don't feel like waking up and having this thing on a more easternly track and back up to a Cat. 5; because thats what seems to happen to me everytime I lay my head down for 6-8 hours.
But where ever it hits.... god bless all.
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Impossible Is Nothing
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
eyewall is open and ragged.
linky
You can clearly make out the outer eye at almost double the radius to the inner eye that is now clearly open. I'm thinking it will finish the before it's fully over the eddy, and then it can grow again.
Here's the same graphic animated for 6 frames: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...amp;numframes=6
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