jr928
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 101
|
|
everybody did this with , changed their minds over every wobble. you have to look at the days track and the models clustering usually is good indication. It will do the normal north turn as 90% of them do in this area and hit that la/tx border like is saying. Joe b just never backs off a position. He' s rarely accurate but when he is , he says it over and over.
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
Quote:
Exactly what is the possibility of this thing coming within 20-30 miles of Lafayette, Louisiana ? I have been "iffy" about the track to the Houston area. I just don't see it going there for some reason. I think it is going to hit Port Author or some where east of it. Im getting pretty worried about it coming to Lafayette. I don't wanna go to sleep tonight because I don't feel like waking up and having this thing on a more easternly track and back up to a Cat. 5; because thats what seems to happen to me everytime I lay my head down for 6-8 hours.
But where ever it hits.... god bless all.
well the last 2 hrs she has went almost due west.I dont wish it anywhere but really dont want to see it hit Gal Hou as this will only help the oil traders who are holding oil stocks.But i would wait on the 11pm update and see then see what they say.
|
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
|
|
Here is an interesting link to the TAOS wind model on the current landfall prediction by :
TAOS Model
Don't forget that it is just a model of the current track forecast. It will change.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
This is the nervous time, where everyone starts trying to figure exactly where a storm will go, tomorrow night we'll find out. But in any case it won't matter much, the area that gets hit and to the east of it will be pounded, the area south and west will be as too, just not so much with the extreme surge.
Angle of approach, forward motion, and position along with tide timing will be the major factors with . 's pressure is up a little bit, but I think it will hold around here, or weaken some more overnight.
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
It is becoming clear to me that peaked 24 hours ago and is in fact leveling off during the day this evening as a category 4. I think warm eddies or heat sink, it is too difficult to ascertain if these differences are having quantifiable impacts with regard to her structure very readily. Hurricanes over very warm water can have disrupted intensities in lieu of the mechanics of EWRCs. Moreover, where the water is "cool" we are still talking 81, 82-ish, which isn't exactly floated ice-bergs... We may be making too much out of this, particularly when said eyewall mechanics (events that top scientists readily admit they no very little about) have much more discernable affects by the hour.
In any case, I grew suspicious of cat-5 return, but not impossible...
|
Jonathan Franklin
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 11
Loc: Miami, Florida
|
|
I've enjoyed reading everyone's 2 cents here. Here's 2 more, the turn North may not come as soon, and it may still skirt slightly more West than current predictions.
May all who are in front of this find safety!
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
I've just spent about an hour trying to understand the different steering currents. I get it now.
OK there is undoubtably some stairstepping element to the movement along the ridge of high pressure, but the westward movement is because the high has started moving to the northeast, pivoting around the NW corner of Louisiana (I think in about 12 hours it'll be over Arkansas and Missouri), and has given ground on the west of , so now it is allowing more of a westward movement, but less northward movement.
The interesting thing is, please correct me if I'm wrong, that if stays very strong, the stronger she stays the more of a W movement will occur and the landfall point will go back to SW of Galveston.
Eventually she'll be curving around the SW side of the ridge and moving north along the western side of the ridge, to make landfall.
I'm not sure but it looks like the more she weakens, the more she can edge a little northward in this process?
Note: on the sat wv loop, you can see the convection forming mainly to the south, I am presuming over the eddy of the loop current. Notice in the more recent recons that the temps have gone up. I trhink the completion of the is going to go a lot faster, after some time over these warmer waters, with additional convection. The west movement will allow more time in those waters.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
TejasTiger
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 1
|
|
Hey folks, great site you have here.
I'm a newbie who---drumroll---made the failed attempt to evacuate from Houston (I'm in west-central Houston) to the east very early this morning (at that time, I thought I was safe in doing so), turned back due to lack of gas, and now am getting worried that this storm will move more west than north and plow over my city.
Anyways, I love all of your conjecture and info. I'm learning quite a bit in an abstract sense, but for all practical purposes youse guys are scaring the crap out of me with the discussion about the westward jog(s).
Ugh.
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
It's odd to see such a sharp and concentric presentation of an eye feature in the IR (not a coincident of cloud motion) presentation and than have the vortex message say INNER EYEWALL RAGGED AND OPEN S-E...
|
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
|
|
Do you have shutters on your home? If not and the storm does come to Gal/Houston..you should be concerned.
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
...Extremely dangerous category four Hurricane continues
west-northwestward toward the southwestern Louisiana and Upper
Texas coasts...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port O'Connor Texas to Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southeastern coast of
Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River
including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain....and
from south of Port O'Connor to Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Port
Mansfield to Brownsville Texas...and for the northeastern coast of
Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane was located near
latitude 26.2 north... longitude 90.3 west or about 350 miles...
560 km... southeast of Galveston Texas and about 310 miles... 495
km...southeast of Cameron Louisiana.
Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. On this track...the core of will be approaching the
southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts late Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher
gusts. is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are
expected during the next 24 hours.
Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 23 2005 02:53 AM)
|
Jonathan Franklin
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 11
Loc: Miami, Florida
|
|
I know most everyone has this storm steadying or weakening, but seems like there is the potential for it to get up a little more steam. Just too many irregularities with this one.
|
BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
|
|
Quote:
What area would be called a Non-Life Threatening area? Have they gone mad?
I believe his comments are in response to what has become a monumental traffic jam on the roads leading away from the Houston area. People are sitting in parking lot mode and running out of gas. The Houston mayor is attempting to get army help to airlift stocks of gasoline to strategic spots along the highway to refuel cars that are blocking the roadways. But the point is, it may be that anybody left in Houston simply can't leave now without risking being caught on the highways in the storm.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
It's odd to see such a sharp and concentric presentation of an eye feature in the IR (not a coincident of cloud motion) presentation and than have the vortex message say INNER EYEWALL RAGGED AND OPEN S-E...
The vortex was at 01:44 and the last IR frame I'm viewing is at 01:45. I would say the eyewall is open W-E, if at all... although I think it looks like it's just not as high cloudtops. Guess that's why they fly the planes.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
|
|
11pm closer to the TX/LA border:
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
drops 10 more and its down to a 3...........Track the same
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Quote:
Exactly what is the possibility of this thing coming within 20-30 miles of Lafayette, Louisiana ?
If you live south of I-10 in the Lafayette area, and for that matter...
South of I-10 From Lafayette/ Baton Rouge to the Houston area. Please leave as soon as you can.
Acadiana Will be in the NE Quadrant of .
Probability of 100 mph winds for 3 hours or more.
Depending on her forward speed.
Take your important papers with you. And throw the breakers to OFF at your power meter. If you don't feel comfortable doing that. Then turn eveything off at your inside breaker panel.
Andrew came close to flattening Acadiana in 1992. This storm will be at or above Andrew's windspeed at landfall...even without a direct hit.
The storm is forecast to stall, after moving inland.
The Atchafalaya River will certainly go to and possibly above flood stage.
Hindering rescue and recovery efforts.
Tidal surges near the coastline will wipe out roads and bridges (based on 's damage).
Further hindering rescue and recovery efforts.
Not to mention Power Co. crews.
If you are in an area that has water standing after a thunderstorm moves through. I would seriously-Get Out.
I haven't heard how the Corpus Christi area is. For the TX viewers it might be an option.
WWL Radio 870 has excellant coverage...always does.
You don't have to go to the Interstates to evacuate. Take the State Highways and go North. You can get on the Interstates later.
Alexandria, Shreveport, Monroe..even Vidalia and possibly Natchez.
Don't try Mississippi...All of the rooms south of Jackson are taken. And rescue and recovery crews from the MS Gulf Coast are being evacuated temporarily to safer locations inland.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
And the AL/MS border is now in the long-range cone!?!?!? Does the really think this thing could go southeast after landfall?????
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 23 2005 02:59 AM)
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Well look a the guidence, Hugh - almost every one of them is recurving toward the coast now!
Not pretty if it stalls over TX.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
This storm will be at or above Andrew's windspeed at landfall...even without a direct hit.
What was Andrew when it hit there? cause this storm can (most likely not) but can drop more yet.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
