typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
TPC discusssion
PHILIPPE REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IN FACT...BOTH SAB AND BEGAN
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC ON THE BROADER LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF PHILIPPE
Subtropical storm is developing sw of philippe from the upper low it should continue to become tropical in nature over the next 48 hours.
You know what is also interesting about that is that the operational versions of the global based models have no clue there is a subtropical low is there.... They do have a representation of what's left of shreaded Philippe, accelerating and obsorbing into N Atlantic features.... Hmmm, what's to happen with subtropical low - stay tuned... Also, impressive wave comes off Aftrica... Note, the waters between Africa and the Islands have not been processed much this year... It is getting late climate wise for Cape Verdi cyclones, but seeing as the waters are both anomalously warm and unprocessed, could be a signal that Dr. Gray is onto something...
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lunkerhunter
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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also, to elimnate the effect of daytime heating.
a drop of over 4 degrees from one night to the next.
10:50PM last night 85.1F
9:50PM tonight 81.0F
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lunkerhunter
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Nate, look at the bottom of that same discussion.
24HR VT 24/0000Z 28.4N 93.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 29.8N 94.2W 115 KT...INLAND
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'll leave the above Philippe posts up.
As they do have other information in them.
Please stay on Topic. Once is onshore we can discuss and follow Philippe. Thank You~danielw
Any further posts on Philippe will be graveyarded.
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javlin
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I don't think it would of save that many lives to be quite honest.Most of the lives were lost up the rivers and bayous.It was here that some places had 20-30 feet water overflowing the banks and taking whole families in some instances.I think no one and I mean no one saw this coming or they would of gotten out.I think that part of the problem was that everyone thought that cat 4 surge was coming not a cat 5 derived from a 175 mph storm at 902mb.Now wherever goes she will carry much the same wave with her.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
also, to elimnate the effect of daytime heating.
a drop of over 4 degrees from one night to the next.
10:50PM last night 85.1F
9:50PM tonight 81.0F
...hm, do you really think 'daytime heating' factors into a region that has been densely shrouded over by clouds, rain and wind?
Either way, getting a mass of water that large to change temperature by that much, that quickly, takes quite a taking ay?
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nate77
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Ok, when I worked in the weather field I use to have all this stuff.
But does anyone have a Knots to MPH scale?
Thanks
kts x 1.15=mph ~danielw
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 23 2005 03:42 AM)
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lunkerhunter
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I multiply by 1.15
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typhoon_tip
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I believe it is 1.146 mile to every knot
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KATFIVE
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Tip (a nice historical reference btw) or others, I've been out of the loop for a most of today and I have to say this thing gets more interesting all the time. As of early this morning, I expected a drop in intensity, and then I looked at the IR and the eye and the central pressure at 11pm.. This must be a "historical" freak. The eye looks only a little less perfect than last night. The pressure, given and cold water and dry air and milder waters, still looks very impressive. Anyone want to venture a theory explaining these various factors? Has this storm shown how statistically driven models necessarily falter when confronted by an "outlier?"
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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03:25 eyewall still ragged and open.
struggling to complete cycle.
dry air entering from the WNW?
link
good night!
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gman
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I noticed on the recent satellite loop that the eye took a distinct west (actually a tad south of west) jog right at the end. ANYONE ELSE NOTICE THIS? This movement did not look like a wobble. There had been some speculation that the high might actually strengthen and rebuild westward, thus moving landfall back toward Galveston / Freeport. But, if that jog has an actual south component to it, then one wonders where this storm will eventually make landfall.
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Tazmanian93
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Looks like in the last few frames that she is back on track to the forecast points?
--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
Tip (a nice historical reference btw) or others, I've been out of the loop for a most of today and I have to say this thing gets more interesting all the time. As of early this morning, I expected a drop in intensity, and then I looked at the IR and the eye and the central pressure at 11pm.. This must be a "historical" freak. The eye looks only a little less perfect than last night. The pressure, given and cold water and dry air and milder waters, still looks very impressive. Anyone want to venture a theory explaining these various factors? Has this storm shown how statistically driven models necessarily falter when confronted by an "outlier?"
...Not that it "should" carry much weight to say this but 's eye, IR appears to be "wobbling" (getting sick of that word) NW again.
...There is one difference here, however. The eye is still clearly defined, but has apparently shrunk.... Hmm, they did say in the 11pm that the inner eyewall was finally giving up and the outer eyewall was beginning to contract. Interesting if someone can verify these observations as related?? I'll tell yeah what, I apologize if I seem to be wavering over this but it will definitely be interesting to note the next vortex message for wind...
...As to your questions regarding anomalous behavior, I'm not sure about the cause, but I am sure about the method. When this EWRC began, the winds came down and the pressure has for all intents and purposes been fairly consistently low (notwithstanding these slight rises this evening). Essentially I pose the supposition that has never actually really weakened, rather, is taking an unusually long time to actually replace her rings. Any thoughts??
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danielw
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132kts MaxFlt Level Wind at 0330Z.
Location of max wind 26.4N/ 90.0W
That's roughly 152mph.
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 23 2005 03:49 AM)
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ozzystorm
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I am a novice(not even that) but was looking at some ir radar and was wondering what the system starting to rotate east of florida is? Could it be another tropical storm/hurricane forming. Also is it possible for to suck in energy/warm water from down south. i noticed there r some storm cells that seem to have migrated north of the southern gulf into in the latest satellite images.
would appreciate any one enlightening me.
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Random Chaos
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Quote:
Hmm, they did say in the 11pm that the inner eyewall was finally giving up and the outer eyewall was beginning to contract.
No, but the latest recon indicates it has:
081
URNT12 KNHC 230338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/03:24:50Z
B. 26 deg 10 min N
090 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2406 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 311 deg 107 kt
G. 219 deg 018 nm
H. 919 mb
I. 11 C/ 3050 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30 no mention of the inner eyewall here!
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2018A OB 17
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NW QUAD 01:50:40 Z
INNER EYEWALL REMNANT VERY RAGGED FROM E-W
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC
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Random Chaos
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I think everything you're seeing is either related to or Philippe. There are a few ordinary t-storms also, but all rotation is in relation to our two systems.
There was a convection zone somewhere off FL that was discussed for possible development earlier today, but dropped it when the convection died down. I never paid much attention to it becuase of . Almost everything in that region is being ripped into 's feeder bands, so nothing has a chance to survive if it starts to get going. The next concern points are still well out in the Atlantic, and, until and Philippe clear, will probably not be able to develop (except possibly the new wave off Africa).
Hope that answers your question 
--RC
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
I am a novice(not even that) but was looking at some ir radar and was wondering what the system starting to rotate east of florida is? Could it be another tropical storm/hurricane forming. Also is it possible for to suck in energy/warm water from down south. i noticed there r some storm cells that seem to have migrated north of the southern gulf into in the latest satellite images.
would appreciate any one enlightening me.
Ozzystorm,
After having followed both features in question for a number of days I am virtually certain that the subtropcal low spinning up E of Florida is a separate entity and has not (yet if ever) benefitted from the circulation field of , or the impact has had on the oceanic heat content where the subtropcal feature is..
Aside from the matter, there is still plenty of warm ocean E of Florida.
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Thunderbird12
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Looks like a NW motion had resumed in the last few satellite frames, of course now we are getting into the nightly satellite outage time. Also looked like the inner eyewall was finally giving up the ghost on the last few frames. Once again, we are faced with a system that could look a lot different on satellite when the eclipse period is over. Some erratic motion may still be possible until the new eye establishes itself.
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