BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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According to the 8PM advisory, 45 miles.
Bill
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Michael Shade
Unregistered
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Could it be that lili could turn into a five?????  only 10mph winds away. I also think that she is going to make land fall very close or right on top of New Orleans.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I really HOPE....REALLY, REALLY, REALLY hope I am wrong....but look at the general motion of the cloud canopy, and the direct of the blowoff...
I don't think it would be a direct NO hit, but it's gonna be closer than the Official track.
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Jason Kelley
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Lili remains very well organized, but as the 8 PM advisory said, the pressure has risen very, very slightly to 940 mb. What does this mean? Nothing. Unless something drastic occur overnight (i.e. Opal of 95), the 150 MPh wind gusts observed by buoys south of the Louisiana Coast will be coming ashore tomorrow afternoon. If there are some who live in Louisiana and haven't finished preparing, there is no use of doing so now. Better just evacuate to a shelter immediately. TS force winds are already approaching the Louisiana coast...the trouble is just beginning.
Once again, for all in Lili's path, I'll say good luck, stay safe, and most importantly, hang on to your ass!
Kevin
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anon(ShawnS)
Unregistered
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Don't laugh, but in the last few frames of the satellite loop I think I see an ever so slight westerly "jog" to the NW component of the movement of Lily. Doesn't mean anything, but I thought I would throw it in since everyone else was talking about the more northerly jog.
ShawnS
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KYLE
Unregistered
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so what does everyone think. i am not as worried here in pensacola anymore. Probably just a 20mph breeze. Maybe a shower thats about it. Feel sorry for the folks in Louisiana cause us folks on the Panhandle could be in this same situation an i know i wouldnt wanna be.
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rickinmobile
Unregistered
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Let's hope it has peaked....perhaps the eyewall will break down again...and rebuild stronger....if it tightens up...we got a cat 5.....this is not far from it....LOOK OUT>>>>>>>
this thing is gonna be bad.
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cappycat
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 16
Loc: Raceland, LA
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thank you. if it comes in at Morgan City we are in for some rough weather, but not inside of the 45 mi area. New Iberia would be even better!!! I still liked the Lake Charles track best though. sigh.
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bobby
Unregistered
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jason you say the storm could be going more east plue weather channel just said storm could be going more east plus someone said models are showing right turn what do you see and what does this mean thanks
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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and everyone else. Yeah, we're watching intently. I think TPC has got to nudge the track a bit to the right at the 10:00 advisory. Got the Benz (wife's - NOT MINE, I drive a 94 Honda which she gave me to replace my '88 Accord) gased up just in case, but we're planning on staying put for now. Surprisingly, everyone in the neighborhood who blew town for Georges is also hunkering down. So that would complicate any radical turns as there would literally be NO WAY to get even 1/3 of the people outta here. This isn't worst case scenario (Cat-5 moving up from SSE/SE just to the south of the city) that kills 100,000+ people, but you still have to respect it. I've got the kids life vests in just in case. It doesn't flood in my neighborhood, but obviously a levee breach ANYWHERE changes everything. So we're all set. I'm looking forward to tracking this with all you guys as long as I have power. I'm about 85% sure we'll lose power at some point, just don't know for how long. So I'll be back in as is possible.
Looks like this was Louisiana's year. Glad most of the storms (at least up unto now) have been wimpy because if this was our 4th or 5th direct hit, it would probably be the death knell!
L8R,
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Posted two days ago this thing would NOT hit Texas... I think I got that one in the bag... also stated that Lili would be within 100 miles of New Orleans to the west... that might come to fruition as well (maybe)... have notice the big swing to the NNW...
I have not done any preps at my house... NONE... why? because I have been relying solely on what I though was a confident forecast track... heck we don't even have a hurricane watch on the MS coast... I sure would hate to have to nail up plywood in gale force winds... shame on me... probably goning to be OK over here as long as we don't get any last minute surprises.. good thing Lili is a small compact storm...
On the sat pixs you can see the elongation of the system from north and south, usually an indication of where a system might eventually go.. it was NW to SE most of this afternoon, but now it a descernible N and S....
If A98E comes to fruition then the Big Easy might be the really Big Uneasy tonight and tomorrow...
all eyes will stay focus on the track for the next 6 -8 hours or so... will be critical
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Rick
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
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I think you're right. Much too close to N.O. for comfort.
OK...here we go with the drama of "live TV news"! 
I feel sorry for the poor reporters who got the short straw and have to go out in the weather to "get the story". (OK, that was great...now hold on to that stop sign and try to look......ummm....horizontal!) 
I'll never forget ol' Norris Dejon from a West Palm station. They sent him out to cover some storm (I forget which) and to dramatize how "windy" it was, he took off his windbreaker and let go of it expecting it to go down the block. It fell straight down on his shoes! 
Then you have the other extreme where the reporter can't even stay in the shot!  That jobs gotta zuck!
The WC guy Joe almost got run over earlier doing an interview in the street! 
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rickinmobile
Unregistered
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I have a feeling this storm wil cause the entire way they report these things to change. Problem is that there is still NO WAY to discern with any accuracy where they will go. ...and no one wants to evacuate the entire northern gulf coast.
but the delay in telling the public is wierd to me. People I am talking to are still thinking texas....WE ALL know what is happening...but the transfer of information is far too slow to help. The people need to transfer all of this info to a main site that the entire coast watches.....it could be a good thing...
everyone watches it....and changes occur immediately...and interviews...and discussions..
sooner or later..the big one comes....
nawlins.....takes it on the chin....
this is a bad thing ya'll. I mentioned a day ago New Orleans was a possibility...even east of that...and recieved flack and jokes...WHY?......if it is a possiblity....WHY ridicule it?..
Small hurricane with a buzz-saw solar system type look...
landfall at 140 MPH winds...maybe more...I HOPE IT DON"T GO east...sure hope for new orleans sake....
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Anyone know of a good radio/TV station to listen to a live feed during the storm?
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Did we not agree DAYS AGO that they were taking a BIG RISK not putting New Orleans under a hurricane watch?
I've got her at 27N, 90.6W. Come on baby, keep inching west for awile longer..........
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Looking at a couple different sat IR pixs (0015 Z) I estimate the center of Lili at approximately 26.95N and 90.5W..... this is consistent with a NNW motion (up .35 north over .20 west)... again could be a wobble, but seems to be wobbling a lot to the NNW...
Worse case scenario tonight would be for the change to the north track prior to 91.0 W... for N'awlens sake... not saying that is going to happen but sure would present itself as being very undesirable for Steve and the rest of the Crescent City folks...
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rickinmobile
Unregistered
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storm is back to perfectly round...9 mile wide eye...
this will be a 5
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Cappy,
My first question for you is...are you safe in Raceland? Looking at a map you sure are close to the coastal area. Tell us about your area...are you elevated above flood level? Boarded up?
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Can still see a NNW movement on LRL.
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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looking at the NO radar it's drfinetly moving N/NW heading towards the lake charles area
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