Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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a) It is right now weakening or strengthening? neither
b) What is more likely? Landfall at Cat 2 or Cat 4, or maybe still Cat 3 - Cat III
c) Track is NW or NNW? becoming more NNW
d) Landfall closer to Port Arthur or Lake Charles? probably Cameron, but it doesn't matter since both Port Arthur and Lake Charles and many other locations (see the Main Page Article) will receive strong hurricane force winds
e) Why electricity power is still up in all places? Many locations are already without power - including most of Port Arthur
f) What is that that after landfall the system can not go anywhere and perhaps return offshore through the same inverse line? See the Discussion bulletin, but to be brief, will become trapped between high pressure systems to her east and west.
ED
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oil trader
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
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Thanks for your answer, but I am flat I am not trading in a face of human tragedy. I did the same during . Aditionally if you follow my posts from Wednesday you can see that I was contantly predicticting a softer landfall.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 24 2005 12:03 AM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Agreed.
While recon does show a trend of weakening which is basically negligible at this point, the wv sat images taken 15 min before and 15 min after the recon still show a very significant increase in convection in the core, which is just offshore.
Pressure is solidly in the Cat 4 range and the temp diff at the eyewall is still 6 deg. The limited Cat system has to officially stay at a 3 because it is based on the max sustained surface winds, but the strength of this storm still has potential beyond a Cat 3, of course in terms of surge, and I would assume in terms of localized wind gusts as well.
Starting about 30 to 60 minutes ago this powerful central area of convection was at the coast between Galveston and Intracoastal City, with what looks like the deepest area of convection about to hit right at the TX/LA state line. The convection is still very strong even over portion that extends the first 5 miles inland, probably because of the low marshy elevation.
Just pulled this from Jeff Master's Wunderground blog as it is applicable and does explain the increase in convection:
"Radar shows some very intense echoes in the northern eyewall smashing into the coast, and infrared satellite imagery confirms the presence of extremely cold cloud tops in the northern eyewall. It appears that the interaction of the eyewall with land is producing extra surface convergence of winds that is forcing up some strong updrafts, creating very high thunderstorm tops."
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Sep 24 2005 12:20 AM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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not ready for a nap yet  and oil trader can't pm you i did try early today but you got them blocked.
All in all this storm is strong but alot and i mean alot better case then what could have been and what was forcasted days ago.
But again still a strong storm i want to see what they claim the winds were at lanfall.
Fox news just said they now finally see the west jog i stated awhile ago.Takes them awhile.Now it needs to just get inland so it can finally lose its power.
Edited by ralphfl (Sat Sep 24 2005 12:28 AM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Pressure drops the last hour: Beaumont 3.8 mb (to 984.5 mb), Lake Charles 3.5 mb (to 986.0 mb). Beaumont reported sustained winds of 49 with gusts to 63 mph in the last hour.
The NW eyewall in particular looks very intense at the moment. While the eyewall is not closed, those parts of it that are producing intense convection will be able to produce the very strong cat 3 winds listed in the advisory.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Repost:
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 (edited~danielw)
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOVERING NEAR 930 MB THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAD STILL BEEN 120-125 KT.
WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SLIDELL LOUISIANA...LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA...AND HOUSTON TEXAS STILL DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT IS JUST A FEW HOURS FROM REACHING THE COASTLINE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.
THE EYEWALL REMAINS INTACT AND INTENSE... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 20 N MI... SURROUNDED BY DENSE AND WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BANDING.
VELOCITIES FROM THE RADARS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF MUCH AND SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 105 KT.
RITA REMAINS A FORMIDABLE MAJOR HURRICANE... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IT HAS OVER WATER... SO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.
*******
Dropsonde released into the western Eyewall. At 0413Z indicating "Wind, last 150m (492ft) of the drop, from 300 degrees ( NW ) at 84kts"-97 mph.
This isn't the max wind. Just the Eyewall Max wind.
And this is on the western side of the center.~danielw
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I'm seeing 971mb at Calcasieu Pass, LA (it's almost due north of the eye now).
(Source: that tide link I gave before)
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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
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Looks the surge is starting to come in around Calcasieu Pass, LA
Big jump on the last update to over 5' above normal and the winds are still coming from ENE not onshore yet
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8768094+Calcasieu+Pass,+LA
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Using this loop. It looks to be a near due North heading now.
That would put Cameron and Holly Beach in the landfall zone.
The Composite Reflectivity shows the full eyewall.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p37cr/si.klch.shtml
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 24 2005 12:49 AM)
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Question for the mets and mods....
Looking at the radar loop, there is a large "void" of reflectivity to the S/SE of the center, and a band has now wrapped back around this large area (about 60 miles?). Could this be the beginning of an ?
Nevermind... I looked at the loop again and answered my own question... 
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Allison
Edited by Allison (Sat Sep 24 2005 01:09 AM)
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LSUHurricane
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 6
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Hey fellas. Ive still got power and im in Baton Rouge right now. In the past hour the winds have really started ripping to about 50-55 mph. Currently, and since this morning, Ive collected about 5 inches in the rain gauge. I still cant believe that we have power quite honestly. The transformers are popping all over the neighborhood. I'm praying for elderly grandparents house right now that is in Sulphur, LA . They are staying at my house right now.
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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very nice radar <a href="pichttp://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/radarplus/pro/local.asp?user=66000100549&radar=KLCH&choices=radarproduct%3DV0%26surface%3DWSPD%26thunds%3Dtrue%26radarframes%3D20<g=false&defaultflag=1" target="_blank">pichttp://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/radarplus/pro/local.asp?user=66000100549&radar=KLCH&choices=radarproduct%3DV0%26surface%3DWSPD%26thunds%3Dtrue%26radarframes%3D20<g=false&defaultflag=1</a>
That's a subscription link and will not allow access~danielw
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 24 2005 01:02 AM)
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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When will the news media ever learn. I was watching all the news channels and they are doing the same thing they did with . Oh this is not as bad as we thought it would be. The eye of the hurricane and the 20 Foot Storm Surges have yet to approach the gulf. We are still about 3 hours from the storm coming on shore where the worst of the storm surges will be felt and the the intense and damaging winds. While it would great if they are right, they always seem to make the same mistakes over and over again. Do not get me wrong I appreciate their coverage, just wish they would learn to take a wait and see attitude.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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000
URNT12 KNHC 240453
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/04:31:50Z
B. 29 deg 07 min N
093 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2533 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 201 deg 107 kt
G. 130 deg 043 nm
H. 934 mb
I. 10 C/ 3050 m
J. 17 C/ 3038 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN ESE
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A OB 08
MAX FL WIND 117 KT NE QUAD 02:50:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 126 / 26NM
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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sorry DW 
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Hurricane Intermediate Advisory Number 26a
midnight CDT Sat Sep 24 2005
...Eye of major Hurricane wobbling toward landfall near the
Louisiana/Texas border...strong winds and heavy rains battering
southern Louisiana and southeastern Texas...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Sargent Texas to Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have
already been completed.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl
River... including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain... and from south of Sargent Texas to Port Aransas
Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At midnight CDT...0500z...the center of Hurricane was located
near latitude 29.2 north... longitude 93.5 west or about 40 miles
south-southeast of Sabine Pass along the Gulf Coast at the
Texas/Louisiana border.
Rita is moving toward the northwest near 11 mph. This general
motion is expected to continue until landfall. A gradual
turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Saturday.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 240453
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/04:31:50Z
B. 29 deg 07 min N
093 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2533 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 201 deg 107 kt
G. 130 deg 043 nm
H. 934 mb
I. 10 C/ 3050 m
J. 17 C/ 3038 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN ESE
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A OB 08
MAX FL WIND 117 KT NE QUAD 02:50:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 126 / 26NM
URNT11 KNHC 240456
97779 04434 71296 94049 30500 06091 10109 /3804
RMK AF309 2518A OB 11
OUTBOUND NW OB
i like how they add extra remarks... "inbound or outbound".... makes it easier to know which way recon is heading.... i would assume that a p-3 is up for HRD landfall data...not sure but will check.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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It helps when you have two planes in close proximity also.
I haven't gotten any NOAA data. Lately.
But I haven't checked their site either.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Beaumont just reported a wind gust to 65 knots (74 mph). Their wind direction is still from the due north. Also, a ship report south of Beaumont on the coast indicated a wind gust to 78 knots (90 mph).
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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the is the last from NOAA3 i have...
URNT40 KWBC 240110
NOAA3 2318A
and nooa9 did ther last at
NOAA9 2418A OB 26
62626 SPL 2603N08497W 0141 WL150 13019 085 DLM WND 16009 013150 M
BL WND 13019 LAST REPORT TO KWBC
just got this
looks like another AF plane
URNT12 KNHC 240513
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/04:53:00Z
B. 29 deg 11 min N
093 deg 26 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 176 deg 113 kt
G. 084 deg 017 nm
H. EXTRAP 936 mb
I. 11 C/ 3652 m
J. 17 C/ 3658 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. E36/24/16
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 WX18A 02 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 113 KT E QUAD 04:48:10 Z
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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