oil trader
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
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Quote:
... steering currents will be weak so it's hard to say where the storm will track from there (range of possibilities include almost every direction except for north and northwest. most likely it will begin to drift more to the south. the red and sabine river valleys are likely to face a significant flood threat during the coming week.
HF 0701z24september
Have you seen the last run of model with a short loop following the whole Texas coast aftermath?
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 24 2005 03:25 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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still seeing 938mb and 939mb in the eyewall...
expect last vortex was just dropped....
CNN is looking good right now... they have three of there best live right now
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'm still seeing reports of 108kts at flt level.
0651Z 29.6N 092.7W 108 KTS
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The satellite presentation is a moot point right now, but the latest IR image (0645Z) shows some extremely cold cloud tops, less than -80C in spots. That is some very intense convection on the north side of the eye.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/215.jpg
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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max is on...(cnn) like he's watching the networks and when he see something live... he likes to jump on...pretty cool.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 240715
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/07:03:20Z
B. 29 deg 38 min N
093 deg 39 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 184 deg 108 kt
G. 093 deg 047 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 9 C/ 3657 m
J. 19 C/ 3651 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE-W
M. C24
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A 02 OB 23
MAX FL WIND 111 KT SE QUAD 06:39:10 Z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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wherever they've moved evacuees i'd expect they're not in a flood zone. i'd expect that emergency planners are well prepared for inland flooding... hopefully they'll keep things shut down if severe flooding starts occurring later this upcoming week. can't have people running around like business as usual when a major flood event is underway...
speaking of flooding, large parts of cameron parish ought to be underwater at this point (aside from the large parts that are usually underwater in that tangle of bayous). orange, port arthur, and the outlying areas of lake charles are likely to see concentrated surge damage. for the folks who didn't leave cameron parish or the low parts of jefferson and orange counties in texas... i just hope they've got higher ground to escape to. after i'm sure that only the most stubborn or cuckoo are left. i mean come on, they just had a hurricane kill hundreds of people in their state less than a month ago...
HF 0721z24september
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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it looks like those two recon planes have their instrumentation calibrated just a little different... but whats a millibar or a couple of knots when you get down to it?
HF 0723z24september
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Each one of these storms, it always gets worse. I find out that I know people in the hardest hit regions, and that just brings it that much closer to home. Seriously, as a meteorologist, I feel both pride and regret in what I do. I feel pride in that I know what I know and can help others with that information; I feel regret in what these storms actually bring to an area. It's a quandry we all deal with at times.
Nevertheless, is making landfall. The winds never came back up, largely because it never really truly completed an eyewall cycle, jumping from one right into another. The inner southern eyewall is gone, leaving an outer southern eyewall that won't come in until sunrise. The storm is likely to sit in the ArkLaTex for some period of time, bringing lots of rain from areas between Little Rock, Paris, Ft. Smith, and even Jackson to Baton Rouge, Lafayette, and New Orleans. Things took a turn for the worse on the east side of NOLA this afternoon, and this certainly isn't going to help.
A few minor things worth watching out in the Atlantic tonight, but nothing of imminent concern. 's coming ashore, thankfully much weaker than expected, and once the storm is gone...good riddance.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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lost lake charles radar... winds should of been around 65kts or so at radar site...
KLCH radar
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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The station at Sabine is still reporting from the western eyewall...
82MPH sustained winds and 99MPH gusts as of 2:00 A.M...
also, radar shows NW movement currently... looks like she'll pass right over Sabine Lake.
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Allison
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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espect landfall by at any moment now... they lost KLCH radar... must use houston.... based on that radar.... center of eye coming ashore now....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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center of the eye should be coming onshore in the next few minutes between johnsons bayou and the sabine pass. central pressure is lower than last september by a couple of mb. structure of the storm and history make it compare quite well with in that sense. impact should be on par, but the worst is limited to the sparsely populated cameron parish coastline.. as somewhat of a buffer to lake charles and the cluster of towns around beaumont in texas.
HF 0740z24september
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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it's offical from ... just reported
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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LCH radar is back... it is probably having some transmission delays at times. Looks like the center is now onshore.
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
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Offical made landfall..
Near LA-TEXAS BORDER.
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
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Rick Sanchez of CNN is reporting that building are falling apart in Lake Charles.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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landfall pic i have
http://stormhunter7.tripod.com/landfallrita.png
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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later , say goodbye to GOM..... (for now?)
URNT12 KNHC 240740
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/07:25:20Z
B. 29 deg 40 min N
093 deg 41 min W
C. 700 mb 2555 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 186 deg 111 kt
G. 100 deg 016 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 16 C/ 3046 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2518A OB 21
MAX FL WIND 111 KT E QUAD 07:20:30 Z
EYE PRESENTATION ON RADAR DETERIORATING
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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Haven't checked the radar feed myself but CNN is reporting the Weather Service radar in Lake Charles is down and they can't communicate any longer with their reporter there.
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