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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: Margie]
      #57272 - Sat Sep 24 2005 04:16 PM

well what was the offical winds at landfall? was it 120? or did they downgrade it before land? im glad there was not too much damage but God be with the ones who lost there homes and loved ones.

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oil trader
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: Clark]
      #57273 - Sat Sep 24 2005 04:29 PM

Fortunately Rita was not Katrina.

But just to make some comparison; would anyone be so kind to explain me the similarities and differences between Rita (2005) and Ivan (2004) about wind speed, track speed, possible damages aftermath and so on?


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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: ralphfl]
      #57274 - Sat Sep 24 2005 04:36 PM

CNN is interviewing officials in Abbeville who are describing the rescue of hundreds or "up to 1000" people from homes in marshy land to the south. The Mayor of Abbeville said, at one point, that the marshes normally extending to the Gulf "look like the Gulf of Mexico" and one person described a 2-story house being under water to its roofline.

I have not heard any reports from Cameron. Has anyone? Until all these smaller communities are accounted for, either by communication with locals or visits by rescuers, we won't know the real story of Rita in my opinion.


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #57276 - Sat Sep 24 2005 04:49 PM

Check the blogs at WWLTV.com and NOLA.com for local information. I think I recall seeing information re: Cameron but have read so much lately.
There is also a weather forum at WWLTV that is good.
Hope this helps.


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Dawn
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: St. Petersburg FL
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: Clark]
      #57277 - Sat Sep 24 2005 06:04 PM

There are models suggesting that Rita will move back in the Gulf if not picked up by the Cold Front - also saying that a piece may break off with the cold front some going north and the piece or entire system moving back in the Gulf.

Clark what is your take on this?

Would like any mod or met to give their take on this.

Thank You


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: Dawn]
      #57278 - Sat Sep 24 2005 06:43 PM

It's possible, but it's not what we're looking for right now. An area of lower pressure may head down there, but it is debateable as to whether or not it is Rita or just the tail end of a cold front projected to slide through the eastern US this week. Given the forcing behind it all, (re)development would be unlikely in the short term; it'd have to stick out there for awhile.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: Clark]
      #57279 - Sat Sep 24 2005 07:10 PM

Light sprinkle started about 5:25. Downpour 5 minutes later with sighted rotation at 5:40. Clearly visible and traveling west rotating to the north.

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: collegemom]
      #57280 - Sat Sep 24 2005 07:42 PM

It's been 50 minutes since the sirens stopped. Wow what rain we've had in the last hour. I took a single stem vase outside and put it on the picnic table as a gauge. The wind comes from the east then shifts from the west . It's gonna be a long night--I knew there was a reason I slept from 4pm Friday until 2 am this morning.

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: collegemom]
      #57281 - Sat Sep 24 2005 08:26 PM

no doubt. Stay dry, stay safe.

I'm heading back to Mississippi later in the week continuing to work some relief efforts. This time i'm bringing in a medical team that is preparing for long-term followup. Anyone here who knows of firm needs or groups that could use this team, send me a private message. The medical team's mission is to support those that may be "foregotten".

meanwhile, i'll be hoping the florida east coast stays clear for the rest of this season!

--------------------
Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Rita and cool front [Re: collegemom]
      #57282 - Sat Sep 24 2005 08:26 PM

Several of the MS and LA NWS Offices have mentioned this 'cool' front in their afternoon Area Forecast Discussions.
My understanding from reading the AFDs is that the front should push Rita's remnants toward the NE. Allowing for cool and drier air to take hold. I saw temps into the 50s and 60s, later in the week, for the Jackson,MS forecast area.
I like Clark's explanation better.

edit: I'll throw this snippet in for emphasis on the cool front.
Reference to "Katrina"...should be "Rita".
The mind plays tricks on METS too!

...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TREND OF GFS TO LIFT REMNANTS OF Katrina GRADUALLY TO THE NE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NEAR THE MS RIVER. HOWEVER INCREASED MOS POPS WRN ZONES SLIGHTLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SPEED OF SYSTEM...KEEPING THIS AREA IN HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY. MODELS FALLING INTO CONSENSUS THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD SHIFT MONDAY WITH NWLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS REDUCING PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE WEST. WILL DECREASE MOS POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WRN ZONES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK....

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 24 2005 08:34 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
SE TX and SW Louisiana Update [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #57284 - Sat Sep 24 2005 09:03 PM

Quote:

I have not heard any reports from Cameron. Has anyone? Until all these smaller communities are accounted for, either by communication with locals or visits by rescuers, we won't know the real story of Rita in my opinion.




You may have more up to data info than I do.
CNN was reporting that the roads/ highway into Cameron were under water and it would be a while before anyone could get in.
My hope is, that everyone got out of there in response to the evacuation request. Otherwise they will be like the 1000 or more in Vermillion Parish that are having to be rescued from rooftops.
Vermillion Parish road equipment was under water and they weren't sure if it would be usable after the water receded.
I'm still looking for more recent data.
WWL 870 AM and 740 AM (KTRK??) in Houston are both clear channel, high power radio stations.
1200 WOAI in San Antonio is also a clear channel station and may have SE TX information.

To those wishing to return to their homes in the Houston, Beaumont, Lake Charles areas.
The Officials in those areas are asking that you delay your return until at least Monday.
There are areas with limited fuel supplies. The fuel supply that is there will be dedicated to emergency personnel and vehicles, and medical personnel required in the area.
If you run out of fuel, enroute to your home, you may become stranded...This is from the Mayor of Houston,TX.
Areas of Cameron, Calcasieu and Vermillion Parishes in SW LA are still underwater and non-accessable.


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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: Margie]
      #57285 - Sat Sep 24 2005 09:32 PM

Quote:

It is not "swamps and farms."




Yeah looking deeper I'm definately wrong about that. I picked out some of the counties most likely to be affected.

Data from http://county-map.digital-topo-maps.com/louisiana.shtml

Coast
Parish Population
Cameron Parish LA 9,991
Vermilion Parish LA 53,807
Iberia Parish LA 73,266
St. Mary Parish LA 53,500
Terrebonne Parish LA 104,503
Lafourche Parish LA 89,974

Inland
Calcasieu Parish LA 183,577
Jefferson Davis Parish 31,435
Lafayette Parish LA 90,503
Acadia Parish LA 58,861
St. Martin Parish LA 48,583
Assumption Parish LA 23,388


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misunderestimator
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Let's give NHC their props [Re: MikeC]
      #57286 - Sat Sep 24 2005 09:33 PM

Long time lurker - first time poster.
It's been a great education listening to the opinions (sometimes loudly voiced) on this site over the course of Rita's journey (so far). It's really given me an appreciation for the difficulty of predicting these intense forces of nature.

Having said that, I am amazed at how good the NHC does in predicting these storms. Go to the archives for Rita and Katrina

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

you'll see that 3 days ago, the eventual landfall site was well within the 3-day cone. 5 days ago, it was well within the 5 day cone. The same is true for the Katrina archive. NO was within the 5 day and 3 day cones even though the track was considerably off at that time.

It reminds us that the actual path is almost impossible to predict, but their probability estimates are pretty darn good.
It's pretty simple, if you are in the cone, you better pay attention!

So, kudos to NHC!! (as a side note, the attack on NHC graphics by accu that someone linked to earlier made me mad enough that I will never go back to that site).

Best of luck to all those affected by the storm.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Extended Models [Re: misunderestimator]
      #57287 - Sat Sep 24 2005 09:51 PM

Mention of another tropical entity for the latter part of the week. I have inserted the full word in ( ) where applcable to the discussion.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 443 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005 edited~danielw

VALID 12Z WED SEP 28 2005 - 12Z SAT OCT 01 2005

...ON DAYS 6/FRI AND 7/SAT...THE TROP WAVE PASSING THRU FL IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE NOON 09/23 COORD CALL WITH TPC. IF THE DAY 7/SAT MEDR(medium range model) THINKING IN THE E PANS OUT...THE SYS WILL ENCOUNTER SHEAR AS IT PASSES THRU FL AND ENTERS THE GOMEX. THE 00Z ECMWF CARRIES A LOW WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING EWD(??) THRU THE CARIBBEAN AT THAT TIME...SO THEIR IS STILL SUPPORT IN THE PREFFERED OP MODELS FOR THE SYS.

http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus02.KWNH.html


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
SW LA Roads [Re: danielw]
      #57288 - Sat Sep 24 2005 10:01 PM

This may be off topic. So I'll copy the post to the Disaster Forum. In case it's removed.

This is a link to the current road closures in Louisiana.
http://www.lsp.org/roadandincident.nsf/$ViewAll?OpenView


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Rita now a Tropical Depression [Re: danielw]
      #57290 - Sat Sep 24 2005 10:46 PM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION Rita ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...RITA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT REMAINS A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION Rita WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Rita [Re: danielw]
      #57291 - Sat Sep 24 2005 11:05 PM

In addition to the 24 fatalities, nursing home evacuees, that occured in TX.
A tornado spawned by Rita has resulted in a fatality near Belzoni, MS.
The tornado was reported to NWS offices around 2:40PM CDT, and the fatality was reported around 3:13PM CDT. Report also lists extensive damage to 2 subdivisions near Belzoni, and at the Jockey Manufacturing Plant also in Belzoni.
As of 9:06PM CDT, the Storm Prediction Center had received reports of 17 tornadoes in MS and AR.


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Extended Models [Re: danielw]
      #57292 - Sat Sep 24 2005 11:10 PM

DW,

Is the tropical entity mentioned in the HPC discussion the wave located approx 18N/37W which the NHC has flagged as an area of possible development or something else I'm not seeing? Somebody needs to tell Mother Nature to take a couple of weeks off. Let's see--only 67 days till 1 December--but who's counting.


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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
Re: Rita [Re: danielw]
      #57294 - Sat Sep 24 2005 11:31 PM

Quote:

In addition to the 24 fatalities, nursing home evacuees, that occured in TX.
A tornado spawned by Rita has resulted in a fatality




Yes, I must admit I became rather annoyed while watching Lou Dobbs this afternoon as he kept insisting that NO DEATHS had been reported so far as a result of this storm. Not only was he forgetting about those poor people on the bus, but it seems to me fairly certain that when all affected communities have been accounted for, there will be others. Declaring the death count "zero" is not only wrong, even ignoring the bus incident it is way premature.

Edited by BTfromAZ (Sat Sep 24 2005 11:32 PM)


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Sportsfreak1989s
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Lafayette, Louisiana
Re: Extended Models [Re: CoalCracker]
      #57295 - Sat Sep 24 2005 11:32 PM

Well I am from the South-West part of Lafayette Parish and right now I am very lucky to have power. Last night at about 3:30 AM we were getting around 65-75 MPH (Gusting at about 90) sustained winds with a wall of water being hammered into the east side of the house. We lost power at about 8:30 PM and got them back around 5:00 PM the next day. It was a very interesting night to say the least. We have multiple branches down in our yard with one really huge branch that figured to go ahead and spare our house and fall oppisite ways, thankfully. Unfortunately other areas don't have power in Lafayette much less west of us either. I hope everyone that got pounded by this hurricane is alright and god bless all.

-ANDY

--------------------
Impossible Is Nothing


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