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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: watching down the road [Re: Reaper]
      #57416 - Tue Sep 27 2005 08:17 PM

Quote:

Is there a new area of rotation just off the coast of Panama City, Fl?





If it's the area I think you're talking about (Your next post didn't show an area that I could tell), I think that's the area Ch. 10's John Edd Thompson mentioned at the 5:30pm news... he said it was part of the remnants of Rita. Didn't seem to be a big deal to him.

If it does reform.... no, it's not going to reform.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Tue Sep 27 2005 08:20 PM)


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
Re: watching down the road [Re: Hootowl]
      #57417 - Tue Sep 27 2005 08:17 PM

Quote:

Has anyone heard from BeaumontTX yet? I'm sure he hasn't been able to get to his home at this point. Heard they are still turning people away from that area.




BeaumontTX wrote late last week and said she was evacuating to Lufkin at least through the weekend... I don't know where she is now....

Jefferson County is indeed shut down... my grandparents (also from Beaumont) evacuated and, like most everyone else, have no idea whether their house is still standing... no one can get in to find out anything... so we're moving them into our condo in Galveston for a few months while the area gets back on its feet....

Here's hoping 99L doesn't drive them out again... or anyone else for that matter...

--------------------
Allison


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: watching down the road [Re: Allison]
      #57418 - Tue Sep 27 2005 08:31 PM

I don't see much of anything organizing around 99L yet, but the area around 45W 28N is starting to look interesting.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: watching down the road [Re: Hootowl]
      #57419 - Tue Sep 27 2005 08:54 PM

Hootowl,

I left Beaumont a PM on Sunday wishing her well. Last time I heard from her was about 2AM Friday morning. At that time, she was ready to leave with her pets for Lufkin where she had a hotel reservation. Not sure where she is or how she fared. Hopefully, she, her pets and her home did okay. Will follow up when I hear.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: watching down the road [Re: Reaper]
      #57420 - Tue Sep 27 2005 09:36 PM

The deep convection associated with 99L has practically disappeared, but that could just be temporary. There is enough of a disturbance there that convection will probably refire at some point, which could push the system further towards becoing a depression.

There is a weak surface low in the NE Gulf. Given the unfavorable upper-level winds and the bone-dry air aloft coming into the Gulf, any tropical development out of that system will be virtually impossible.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Tue Sep 27 2005 09:44 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
all day in miami they said tomorrow conditions would be favorable [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57421 - Tue Sep 27 2005 10:30 PM

Or more favorable.

Last night this time it looked like a big fuss over nothing..roared back this morning.

I do see signs of a very, early.. "maybe" circulation.

Miami tv playing it up big.. as you can imagine though they insist will go off to the yucatan.

Lets see how it looks in the morning...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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TheElNino
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 9
Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical System Off of Central Florida Next Week [Re: MikeC]
      #57422 - Tue Sep 27 2005 10:41 PM

Some of the latest models are showing a tropical system making a Central Florida landfall about a week from now.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/CMCTROPATL_12z/cmc120.html

The latest European Model on Accuweather's Pro site is also picking up on this.

This is likely the tropical wave/low pressure that is currently at 46W 15N. Too soon to tell how strong this will be but we'll definitely need to keep our eye on it for those here in Central Florida.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: all day in miami they said tomorrow conditions would be favorable [Re: LoisCane]
      #57423 - Tue Sep 27 2005 10:46 PM

From the latest TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JAMAICA AND HAITI... AND
OVER ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. EVEN THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DECREASED THIS EVENING... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT... AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
no rush [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57426 - Tue Sep 27 2005 11:34 PM

99L had it's central convection from this morning puff out this afternoon into a radial half-ring near jamaica and to the east. that all went earlier this evening and now it's barely got any, just that mid-level swirl over the broad surface gyre from earlier. the stuff in the middle may redevelop overnight or it may just pitter around tomorrow... wednesday may be too earlier for it to be classified based on how quickly it's responding. same basic situation as earlier, though... slow track towards the yucatan and probably development by thursday. the NCEP official has it lingering around the yucatan into next week, so this thing may only trudge... but my best bet is that it's further along and closer to a mexican or texas landfall by then.
out in the central atlantic near 14/46 that little low remnant from 98L now has some nearby convection.. albeit sheared convection. there's a weak ridge trying (probably in vain) to build over it. it's going to plod along generally wnw and end up south of bermuda around the weekend... the shortwave drawing it up should pull out and strong ridging should build overhead. globals take the energy west towards the southeast from there... none are showing much more than a surface trough, but i'm suspecting it'll be something more bothersome.
little low off the panhandle doesn't have a chance as it's getting choked out by very strong subsidence. stuff showing on the GFS in the eastern atlantic is make-believe (rare for stuff to form east of 40w after the last week of september).
anywho, if i remember anything from bastardi's teleconnection ideas.. that typhoon running at the ryukyu islands right now would teleconnect to something dashing at the southeast a few days hence. the system at 14/46 isn't anything close to a problem right now, but based on the pattern similarity it's got the hackles up a little.
HF 0334z28september


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #57427 - Wed Sep 28 2005 09:05 AM

Hi, everyone. We are at my sister's in Houston. We evacuated to Lufkin, TX and stayed there for
four nights. The hotel, La Quinta, gave us and other evacuees extended stays and then kicked us out and gave our rooms to the State Farm Disaster Relief Team. Fortunately, we had a place to go but some of the people didn't.
Beaumont suffered extensive damage. Lots of trees down and metal buidlings torn up. We were lucky.
We lost one tree and it fell over the driveway. Our fence is down and some roof shingles are gone.
Rita tore down an old playscape I had wanted to tear down anyway. But there is a lot of roof damage and
so some homes are not livable. My friend stayed through the storm and she said it was scary. Supposedly,
we had up to nine hours of 90 mile per hour sustained winds with higher gusts. Anyway, this is one report
I heard. Power lines are down everywhere. My brother--in-law, who lives in Nederland lost several sheds
and his front porch. The storm came in east of Sabine Pass, Texas and so Louisiana got the worst of
it with storm surch. So we all feel lucky. The authorities are not letting us back into Beaumont (although
some are managing to get in). They are saying now it could take up to a month for electricity to be restored.
One of the sad things is we had 16,000 new residents from the Katrina disaster. The kids were enrolled
in school and were just getting used to their new home and now they are displaced again. Another
sad thing is a lot of people still left pets behind and with all of the fences down some were running loose.
One of my husband's friends (who stayed) had made a makeshift fence and was rounding them up. Federal assistance has been SLOW but hopefully the visit by the President yesterday will help. Anyway, I am glad
to have access to a computer again as I missed the site. I am praying for all of the people displaced by this
storm, and especially the ones in Louisiana whose homes were completely destroyed.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #57428 - Wed Sep 28 2005 09:41 AM

Glad to hear you survived OK, but sorry to learn of your damage and inability to return home.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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GEScott71
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #57429 - Wed Sep 28 2005 10:41 AM

Hi Beaumont,
Glad to hear you are OK! The board has been wondering. I feel a certain kinship with Beaumont because that is where we evacuated to during Hurricane Frances last year. My brother lived in Houston and had friends in Beaumont who had stall space for our 4 horses.

Everyone in the Beaumont area was so friendly and helpful when we were the evacuees; it is so sad to see the area get hit just 1 year later. It looks like you certainly got it worse than we did from Frances and Jeanne last year. I hope everyone recovers OK.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: no rush [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57430 - Wed Sep 28 2005 11:24 AM

The recon flight into 99L has been cancelled for today, but another is scheduled for tomorrow morning if necessary. Convection has increased somewhat this morning, though it still doesn't look terribly organized. The latest TWO mentions that a weak surface low has formed on the SW portion of the wave axis.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: no rush [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57431 - Wed Sep 28 2005 11:40 AM

Quite a bit of model divergence on where this might go:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: no rush [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57432 - Wed Sep 28 2005 11:53 AM

If this develops are we looking at a TS or hurricane down the line? Also, what part of Mexico/Texas are you
looking at for an eventual landfall if it develops?


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #57433 - Wed Sep 28 2005 12:03 PM

Oops! It is storm "surge". By the way, Rita left a path of destruction all of the way up into deep Southeast
Texas. So many with downed trees and no electricity or water. All of these HUGE trees just taken up by
the roots and pushed over. The storm knocked out electricity in Lufkin and we watched from the hotel
as it ripped off part of a fence and felled a tree. Anyway, we are fine, just would like to go home but there
are so many people in the same "boat". Thanks for asking about us.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #57434 - Wed Sep 28 2005 12:21 PM

The sun-sentinel had an interesting article about hurricanes today. The prediction is 2 in October with one being a najor. It also talks about a few other items of interest. It can be found at www.sun-sentinel.com

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LisaMaria65
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 22
Loc: Lafayette, La
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #57435 - Wed Sep 28 2005 12:43 PM

Quote:

Oops! It is storm "surge". By the way, Rita left a path of destruction all of the way up into deep Southeast
Texas. So many with downed trees and no electricity or water. All of these HUGE trees just taken up by
the roots and pushed over. The storm knocked out electricity in Lufkin and we watched from the hotel
as it ripped off part of a fence and felled a tree. Anyway, we are fine, just would like to go home but there
are so many people in the same "boat". Thanks for asking about us.




So glad to hear you are ok!!

Rita was so bad for so many areas in Louisiana. Just a stone's throw from me, areas are flooded. I'm worried about one of the posters here, HeyNow. He is from Abbeville, which was under water pretty much everywhere. So many little towns were or still are under water....it just breaks my heart. In Lafayette, we were very lucky. A lot of down trees, a few on houses but nothing too major.

I hope that 99L doesn't progress into anything more than just 99L. I also hope the rest of the season is un-eventful. Our gulf shores don't need any more disasters for a VERY LONG time!!

--------------------
Lived through Betsy ('65), Camile ('69), Edith ('71), Carmen ('74), Danny ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05), Gustav ('08)....Who's next?


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #57436 - Wed Sep 28 2005 01:09 PM

It is amazing what the high winds can do. Talked to my brother briefly this weekend and he told me that when they were getting the really high sustained winds from (most likely the eyewall or just to the east of) Katrina, that he saw a large roof lift off of a BP gas station and then fly along as if it was a rock being skipped on a pond. Afterwards when he was in the westernmost part of the county he saw a lot of evidence of extreme winds, really odd things.

Roofs seem to be constructed so that they stay in one piece. I saw many roofs from the NOAA images that had been pushed just past the debris line, from houses the surge had demolished.

Also - in Gov Barbour's recent speech to the state legislature, he spoke of 35 foot storm surge from Katrina. Anyone hear any official numbers to support anything over 30 feet?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: Margie]
      #57437 - Wed Sep 28 2005 03:52 PM

well been following this little low for a few days... now it's tracking wnw and it is too close to the coast to do anything and it's somewhat related to Rita.... the part that broke off and went over the fl panahandle..... looks pretty cool on RSO sat pics .... it should come ashore near the area they don't need rain... southern Miss. and eastern LA.....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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