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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57438 - Wed Sep 28 2005 04:46 PM

Yes, cool little low. Good thing it won't (I hope) have a chance to blossom.

Meanwhile, the Carib looks ready to go.

MM


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: Margie]
      #57439 - Wed Sep 28 2005 04:48 PM

I don't know about 35 ft...but FIVE people drowned ON TOP OF the Kmart in Waveland....they recovered an alliagtor our of there too.

35 ft is in the realm of possibility. Incredible...literally.

MM


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: MapMaster]
      #57440 - Wed Sep 28 2005 05:30 PM

That little low in the Gulf actually got a mention in the latest TWO:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEAS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
MORNING... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 70
MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57441 - Wed Sep 28 2005 05:48 PM

Just took a quick look at the Mobile, AL, radar and that little low is actually giving some pretty hefty rainfall in its skeletal bands. It is really too close to land, and moving closer, so nothing significant likely to develop - but interesting how it has blossomed this afternoon.

The Caribbean disturbance (99L) looks like it could really set off if it organises a little more and actually persists this time. However, we arent likely to see much from it til later tonight or early tomoro if it holds together. It certainly looks like it has a better shot now than it has had for the past 24 hours. Certainly something to keep a close eye on.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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zmdz01
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 31
Loc: Simi Valley, CA
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: Rich B]
      #57442 - Wed Sep 28 2005 05:49 PM

Recent T numbers on 99L are up from "Too Weak" to "1.0/1.0". We need to keep an eye on this one.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: zmdz01]
      #57443 - Wed Sep 28 2005 06:37 PM

Last few runs of the NAM have been developing a system and taking it to the Yucutan in about 72 hours. The GFS continues to do basically nothing with 99L. The latest GFS run (18Z) appears to try to develop something out of the convection currently developing on and north of Cuba, which seems to have more to do with the upper low over Florida than with 99L. While there is some enhanced convection north of Cuba in the SW Bahamas, the chances of anything developing there seem much more remote than in the vicinity of 99L.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
TD15--EPAC [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57444 - Wed Sep 28 2005 06:49 PM

well if it follows NHC's path, it will go into the Bahia Totugas as TS Otis, that would be the first in a while huh?..what do people think of this?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57445 - Wed Sep 28 2005 07:18 PM

Quote:

Last few runs of the NAM have been developing a system and taking it to the Yucutan in about 72 hours. The GFS continues to do basically nothing with 99L. The latest GFS run (18Z) appears to try to develop something out of the convection currently developing on and north of Cuba, which seems to have more to do with the upper low over Florida than with 99L. While there is some enhanced convection north of Cuba in the SW Bahamas, the chances of anything developing there seem much more remote than in the vicinity of 99L.




...Yeah, it's gonna be real real hard to get the models to do much with a tropical wave that merely has a weak gyre closed on its axis somewhere... For one thing, the disturbance is not deep enough in the atmosphere for the dynamicals models to latch onto.. That is why the GFDL (for example) is the weakest of them all, like it was with both Katrina and Rita, but as soon as they became vertically integrated in the troposphere, boom!

...I'm actually disappointed in the Cape Verde season this year...Everything's been a Bahama Bomber...


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: zmdz01]
      #57446 - Wed Sep 28 2005 07:29 PM

Man, just lookin' at that Mobile radar...That's got to be about the most torturous thing anyones ever seen... We are less than a month out of a the most elaborate Natural enormity the West has seen probably since Galveston Disaster, and here we are with this rotating thing....mocking the mouth of the Mississippi...


Also, should anything labor to existence from 80W/17N it would certainly be quite plausible that it would end up in the Gulf... I wonder if we can actually make the entire shore of the Gulf of Mexico (some 3 thousand whatever miles of it) unlivable by the holidays...

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 28 2005 08:25 PM)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Katrina's surge... [Re: Margie]
      #57447 - Wed Sep 28 2005 07:38 PM

Two interesting facts that I can validate regarding Katrina's surge...

My front Oaks had severe debris marks from surge at the29-30 foot level... more impressive is the pecan tree in my backyard... which even amazed me that it is still standing... it had some serious debris damage from the surge that was measured by my clean up crews who were cutting some damaged limbs on the pecan tree at 35 feet above sea level... this WAS NOT wind damage but the debris from the houses that were being demolished along the beach front...


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SMOKE
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 33
Loc: USA, Ga.
Re: Watching the Caribbean [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #57448 - Wed Sep 28 2005 07:44 PM

I'm sure that Low south of Mobile is causing some minor concern and perhaps thoughts of 'should have gone to church more'.
The LLI scheduled for the AM should provide a better feel for this disturbance's chances. It's shallow but if does develop and move into Mexico .... <sigh> man, tough on the psyche. Mental fortitude now a PASS/FAIL requirement for gulf coast inhabitants.

--------------------




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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
rita jr, 99L, and the precursor [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #57449 - Wed Sep 28 2005 07:51 PM

been watching this pattern unfold, trying to prog what would happen from days out. about a week ago i was thinking the se caribbean would supply what we would see as the early october ridge is ready to set up over the east u.s./western atlantic. idea has changed nominally as the current 99L has gone through most of the caribbean, and has slowed and is trying to develop north of honduras now. was thinking we'd have two storms to worry about next week, and i think i've got the evolution figured out now. here goes.
it's not a real development threat but just an item of interest, because the Rita shear-off remnant idea worked. that little piece of energy that was deposited off the fl panhandle yesterday in Rita's wake has developed a little surface low that has wended nw towards the mississippi coast today. it's weak and in a high-subsidence environment, but the little thing showed up nonetheless.
bigger concern is 99L, which is very slowly organizing into a tropical cyclone. the system has had a surface low for three days now, but convection has consistently not concentrated near the center, flaring to the east repetitively. today the overall organization is a little better, though i'd still hesitate to call it a depression. if the stuff near the center winks out overnight look for thursday to be another day in limbo with a half-formed system moving slowly wnw or nw in the caribbean. best bet is that it does finally develop. models are inconsistent with its future movement, but i'd bet on a cross-yucatan/western gulf track, and a very slow one at that. the yucatan is probably going to see flooding out of this one... and it could eventually end up in texas later next week.
the precursor is what i'm calling the system i'm expecting to form off the east coast next week. i've seen the pattern that is trying to make something be there coming for a while, but haven't been sure what trigger the system would develop around. think i've spotted it today. earlier i was looking for a wave interacting with the shortwave energy that gets left as that fast-moving frontal system moves off the east coast and lifts out over the weekend... but the wave energy to the southeast has been blown hither and yon by those elongated troughs deep in the tropical atlantic along 50-60w. a little bit of that may make it up, but now i'm becoming convinced that the little swirl firing convection near 28/73 is what will meet with the shortwave energy and get trapped under the ridge next week. a load of the globals are showing an inverted trough/hybrid system moving towards the southeast mid/late next week... NOGAPS in particular sees the weak little low there now (under a sheared/diffluent atmosphere as the florida upper low lifts out northeast) getting picked up briefly by the front and left behind to press against the ridge. by sunday or monday i'm expecting this to either be a closed deepening storm or a very sharp trough... and it ought to run west towards either florida or up to the carolinas depending on how much the shortwave initially grabs it and how the ridge evolves next week. i don't entirely trust the evolution since it isn't showing a tropical cyclone crossing the yucatan yet. when it gets that system in the mix i'll have a better idea where the precursor might go. if it's any hint, the typhoon (longwang.. not joking) running the ryukyu islands and chinese coast next week teleconnects to a system running westward towards the southeast).
anyhow, in case any of that's over anybody's head, here's what i'm reckoning on:
the system in the caribbean will develop and move slowly nw. may eventually target texas or north mexico later next week.
another system will likely form off the east coast and run westward as long as the ridge holds. i'm expecting it will be a tropical cyclone and that it will reach the coast also late in the week.
down the road GFS is showing more activity in the gulf/caribbean. i think it's losing a grip on the pattern past ten days, so not going to speculate yet on whether those are legit possibles.
HF 2351z28september


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essan
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Re: watching down the road [Re: Reaper]
      #57450 - Wed Sep 28 2005 08:45 PM

So is it safe to say a new storm is soon going to develop?

--------------------
Canadian Sight- Weather & Photography
forums.canadiansight.com


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Waveland [Re: MapMaster]
      #57451 - Wed Sep 28 2005 08:52 PM

Quote:

I don't know about 35 ft...but FIVE people drowned ON TOP OF the Kmart in Waveland....they recovered an alliagtor our of there too.
35 ft is in the realm of possibility. Incredible...literally.
MM




I used to work the Bay St Louis/ Waveland area, and I find it hard to believe that someone on the top of the Kmart building would/ could drown.
The intersection SW of the building is benchmarked at 14ft above sealevel. and the contour north of the store,(running east to west) is at 10ft above sea level.
The roof would be in the 30-34ft above sea level range.
The closest body of water to the store would be the GOM Beach(SSE) at 1.4nm. And the Bay of St Louis(NE) at 1.5nm.
I've seen Frank's pictures and I know that the water did reach these heights at his house. But that was around 100yds or less from the Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi Sound).


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SC Bill
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 24
Loc: South Carolina
Re: rita jr, 99L, and the precursor [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57452 - Wed Sep 28 2005 09:17 PM

HF-

Over my head? Please, I'm right with you . . . . got it. My thoughts exactly.

Actually, please just let me know when I should start packing the car.

if it shows up this weekend, i'd consider it. it's kinda out on a limb for now, though.. this could happen differently. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 29 2005 01:22 AM)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: rita jr, 99L, and the precursor [Re: SC Bill]
      #57453 - Wed Sep 28 2005 09:29 PM

HF, YOU WROTE THIS: "another system will likely form off the east coast and run westward as long as the ridge holds. i'm expecting it will be a tropical cyclone and that it will reach the coast also late in the week."

i was wondering that if that storm developes, where would it head...you said westward which is toward land im just wondering where on the coast...today on the local news channel, they had a if LI was to be hit by a cat. 3 hurricane my town(noth shore of nassau county) would most likely be under 19 feet of water and the south shore by jones beach, the water will go as far inland as i think they said 10 miles..thats a crazy scary thought...im just hoping we are spared like we have been for a good number of years now.

i'm not certain, just see a strong potential for this thing to exist next week. if it does pop up, more than likely it will go in south of hatteras. big ol' ridge is going to be parked over the northeast. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 29 2005 01:31 AM)


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Waveland [Re: danielw]
      #57454 - Wed Sep 28 2005 09:29 PM

Verified...by the DMAT (field hospital) there, in the K-Mart parking lot, and through other sources in MS.

MM


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Waveland [Re: danielw]
      #57455 - Wed Sep 28 2005 09:46 PM

Just food for thought...KMart is less than 2 miles from the Gulf; I-10, miles further north, had watermarks 2 feet from the top of the embankment (saw them myself and documented by survey pics) AND in some spots, I-10 was OVERTOPPED and there are debris lines in the trees 100 feet PAST the interstate, higher than the road. And debris from waves hanging in the trees...

In some spots, we saw watermarks in the median of the highway....

How did that happen? Water flowed UNDER the interstate where there was a drainage way and piled up against the trees, and then against the NORTH side of the enbankment when it tried to drain BACK to the Gulf- the interstate acted as a dam, water actually flowed back OVER it going out, in some places. And, the constriction (overpass) increased the velocity. The overpass at 603 and I-10 in Hancock was undermined by the velocity flow...emergency work had to be done to fill in the embankment...miles from the Gulf. This is only about a mile or so SOUTH of the Hancock relocated EOC (at the school), btw.

If I hadn't seen it, I too would dismiss it...but it really happened...will be studied for years as THE worst storm surge in American history due to a hurricane storm.

How high was that.?...at least 35 feet, probably higher in spots. With wave action on top in some locations.

Amazing, but true..I saw this myself, as did other members of my team.

MM


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TheElNino
Registered User


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Posts: 9
Loc: Orlando, FL
Waveland K-Mart Photo [Re: MapMaster]
      #57456 - Wed Sep 28 2005 09:54 PM Attachment (368 downloads)

I was recently at the K-Mart parking lot in Waveland a couple of weekends ago. I took this photo while I was there.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Waveland K-Mart Photo [Re: TheElNino]
      #57457 - Wed Sep 28 2005 11:02 PM

Facinating info MapMaster!

Here is the NOAA high-res image that includes the KMart (as luck would have it I hit it on the first try):

http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24431500.jpg

For what it is worth...there does appear to be mud and debris on the roof of the KMart, although other nearby rooftops appear to be pristine.

There was that story floating around here a day or two after Katrina about a woman reporter who, supposedly on I-10, stopped at the BSL exit and the exti ramp went off into a lake. (Later note: that exit is over land that is only 5 ft above sea level).

When considering water height inland, remember that elevation is key. A water source such as the Pearl River or St Louis Bay might have been nearby. Hancock County is very shallow for a good ways inland, so being inland does not necessarily imply a higher elevation.

Well LSU measured 29 feet officially for Waveland, and then a different group in Waveland measured 30 ft. I'd sure like to know some other numbers if there are some higher than 30, because that would be the new record. It seems likely though, because Biloxi did get 30 ft, and the strong northern eye wall was centered just to the west of Waveland, with the western winds driving the storm surge parallel to shore into a dead end (the curve of land at the edge of the MS coastline) right at the Waveland / Clermont Harbor area.

I do believe the Biloxi number of 30 ft because of my brother's experience of seeing 1 ft of water at a 25 ft elevation 3.5 mi NNE of the tip of Biloxi just in from Back Bay (the St Martin substation). So it would not be at all surprising if Waveland/BSL got a higher surge.

We do know that the BSL courthouse at 30 ft had a wall eroded either by surge or by waves and debris on top of the surge.

OK at this point I'm speculating that surge coming from the GOM, meeting the surge coming inland from the bay, could have risen higher than the surge height, right at that point, for a short time, and could have washed things up onto high points such as the tops of buildings in that area. If so it would likely have been a very narrow point where the waters met, and so that might explain why one roof coiuld have been topped, but not another nearby.

The debris line from the GOM does not go in any further than the railroad tracks, for the most part, in Waveland, but it is clear that the entire area was under water to some extent because of the pools of water and the mud covering streets, etc, inland of the tracks, in the NOAA images. Remember Frank P finally found parts of his home much further in than the debris line along the GOM in Biloxi.

Note: the KMart is at a 10 foot elevation...that "14" on the topozone map is not an elevation number (there are a lot of other numbers on those maps that I don't know what they are referring to).

By the way -- having come across a lot of elevation numbers that were inflated in various stories...apparently the BSL courthouse is on Court St practically on the bay, about 500 ft from shore. Elevation maps show it is not at 30 feet as specified. It is between 20 and 25 ft, and looks to be closer to 20 ft in elevation. So I am hoping that the actual courthouse the Hancock County EOC stayed in was some other location and not the one that I found. But I think that it is the one.

Do you know what...except for a tiny little stretch of land over 25 ft nearby, there just isn't anything higher in all of BSL and Waveland; not until you get north of I-10, which is unincorporated. There were simply no structures for the Hancock County EOC or other support orgs to use except those in the city.

That is why it was absolutely critical to determine the height of the surge. They had to go by the NOLA NWS HLS (Hurricane Local Statements). Remember that 1) Katrina was forecast to hit at least 15 miles more to the west than it did, and 2) the flood forecase of 18-22ft...up to 25 ft "near and close to the center" (which was changed to a max of 28 ft only at the 5:45pm Sunday HLS) for any other hurricane in anyone else's experience certainly would not have been more than 5-10 miles to the east of the center. By the time it was determined the center was going to hit to the west of Waveland, at the MS/AL border, it was much too late to pick up the EOC and other agencies and try to move elsewhere, as winds had started picking up a couple of hours earlier.

The problem with these low-lying counties like Hancock and Jackson is that there are very few places that are above a Cat 5 surge level, and those places are inland with little development, far from the coastal cities, and even in that small-town environment are known as the backwoods or boonies area. So there are really no structures to pull back to out of the storm surge area. Sheriff's depts will have to consider rebuilding some secondary structure in these rural areas. For surges that would be at the Cat 5 level, all of the county, possibly even emergency personnel, would have to be evacuated anyway because it would end up mostly underwater like Cameron County in LA did.

Now that I've reviewed elevation height for Hancock County I can see that surge wouldn't have to be over 30 feet to cause that kind of devastation.

Edited by Margie (Thu Sep 29 2005 12:28 AM)


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