scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
There wont be a TD until T-Storms consolidate around a defined center, maybe in couple days in the gulf.
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
hard to say. a lot of vorticity will be getting over into the gulf in the coming days, and that loopy system shown on certain models is possible (origin doesn't appear perfectly tropical the way the models show it, something to note). while that's crossing and to the west there are vorticity maxes in under the upper ridge east of the state which may close off... i'm suspecting one will that rides up the east coast of florida. another may originate further southeast and head more to the north. worth noting that the tracks the gulf system back across florida, then stalls it off the southeast coast, has it looking subtropical, and then brings it back west to the southeast after ten days. if that ridge rebuilds over the northeast next week we'll be dealing with a meandering tropical system for some time.
HF 1720z04october
|
sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
|
|
Hi All,
Where can I find the model?
Also, is the thinking that that there will be 2 systems, one affecting the East Coast and One on the West coast?
Just getting a little confused
Thanks
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
agreed Hank,, right now the models dont really seem to know exactly what to make of everything with each model having its own ideas. Example is the wants to bring stan back into the BOC in 48 hours and make it a hurricane in 72. Kinda doubt that but its not out of the question.....but they agree that something may develop in the gulf in a couple days near 28N and 85W and take it across the big bend and N florida and off Jacksonville over the weekend. It might get interesting off the Fl, GA boarder next week but probably just meander then get pushed out to sea mid week on next adv trof,,afterall its Mid Oct by then. I would still watch the remenents of Stan to see where and if it wants to come up more like the but slightly further east. IF so with the next week trof coming down, that might be the kicker thru florida. Am I hinting at 2 systems this weekend or early next week? Yes but of course not sure.
Anyways with the system in the Bahamas, the wave axis is from Cuba near 21N 81W ne to 26N 76W. There is no circulation at this time....the lowest pressures of near 1006mb are in that axis and closer to the Fl Straits nearing the keys by this evening. Should be in the gulf by tomorrow. I say by Thurs we will have a TD or TS, but I think again recon will be cancelled tomorrow unless the wave gets a defined center overnight with TS developing near the center.
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
Agreed. The best thing for development for 92L would be for Stan to continue moving inland and to weaken; right now, the outflow jet from Stan is shearing the wave from the west. The broad area of low pressure is currently located between Andros Island and the Florida Peninsula, well-removed from the strongest convection. Something may be trying to organize in the mid-levels a bit further north and east just west of the deepest convection but will take some time to do so. Unless something develops in a hurry today, which I just can't see right now, recon will likely get canceled for tomorrow if only because the entire complex should be moving over land. It's important to not just focus on this one area as well -- some of the energy is going to get tied up further north in the Gulf Stream near where Ophelia did her number a few weeks ago and the entire complex stretches back to the south and east toward Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Needless to say, it's going to be a very wet one across Florida tomorrow with the potential for something more in the NW Gulf on Thursday. Best call...stay tuned.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
|
|
Check out the new model it takes it right into the heart of the florida penninsula.
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
|
|
and its not out of the realm of possibilty that we get 4 storms break off this wave and one head right up the west coast of florida like the shows one then also there can be a second one like the bam shows that could hit the panhandle at the same time,when also the wave split off a low that would spin its way up to N.O. and then all at the same time another one per the spin off and go to texas,while all the while the remains of stan per comes back out and gets back to a cat 5 storm all the while sucking all the other systems up and taking out the east coast of florida then ride up the west coast of floirda then turn back and go to N.O then head over to Brownsville (they dont want to be left out this season) then cross back over florida and back ino the Atlantic and Ride right up the east coast of the US all the way to NY then out to sea.
Could this happen? if you put all the models together they have something going everywhere since as the local Met said they don't do very good with Waves that are not even a TD yet.So when i read all these diferent hypo's i have to laugh at them as much as my forcast.
Now if you remove mine you need to remove them all since we don't even have a storm and i did use each model.As scott so greatly says in his posts....Do i think this is going to happen? no i did not say that but 0.000000001 chance so if it does ill be able to say see i told you so. 
Edited by ralphfl (Tue Oct 04 2005 02:31 PM)
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
I agree... trying to forecast anything at the moment is nigh impossible at this point. I won't say we're quite stabbing in the dark, as most people agree something is going to happen... but what?
I think there is a chance (not big, but a chance) tht you could see something form in the gulf, something shoot up the east coast, and something linger near Puerto Rico. That many storms will get in each other's ways however, so there'd be somewhat limited development. (unless the east coast system shoots off, and the Gulf storm were to sit and spin so to speak, while the pureto rico storm took a slow wnw track...
Probably won't happen, but I can see a set up where that's a possibility
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
very funny ralph, you forgot that it will then hook back NW towards lake erie and stall and give cleveland 80mph winds for 3 days.
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
Buoy 41010, located about 120 miles east of Cape Canaveral, recently reported sustained winds of 29 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Given the tight pressure gradient that seems to be in place north of 92L, anything that organizes enough to be deemed tropical would have a good chance of producing minimal tropical storm force winds almost immediately. In some sense, it is a tropical storm waiting to happen, but there is no guarantee of tropical organization before it reaches Florida and no strong indication of anything like that so far.
Unless there is an unexpected rapid increase in organization, the actual weather dealt to to Florida would likely not be much different whether or not it happens to become classified as a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
very funny ralph, you forgot that it will then hook back NW towards lake erie and stall and give cleveland 80mph winds for 3 days.
What, you mean the hurricane it develops over Lake Superior isn't going to repel the other four sections of the wave, allowing one of them to come north into Lake Erie? 
(Sorry - couldn't resist  )
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Something like that....
|
emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
|
|
OK, now that you guys are finished being silly will someone please tell me where the circulation is? Is there one? I can't find it. Don't use island names as a referance either. I don't want to get out the map....ROFL! Lat-lon will do just fine.
Jackie
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
The apparent surface circulation (not sure if it is completely closed or not) appears to be around 25N, 79W at the moment. It is not far from the Florida coast.
|
Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
|
|
This is from the 205 discussion. from the .
1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACCOMPANIES A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 23.5N 78W ABOUT
20 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND.......
or click on link then click NWS fronts on the top left, it will show you.
edit: top right not left
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-rgb-loop.html
Edited by Big Kahuna (Tue Oct 04 2005 04:10 PM)
|
HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
|
|
I don't see it developing anytime soon. It's a broad area of low pressure that has a few weak surface lows.For something to form the shear would have to relax and if it does it won't last long. Most of the convection right now is getting blown off to the NE. The way it looks now is most of the heavy rain will be to my north in central Fl but as it passes by Miami then the convection could come back on me. 
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
There is no evidence on the VIS loop of a surface low at the location that was specified in the TWD. The apparent turning in the VIS is further north from that location. For what it's worth, the intial position of 92L in the 18Z SHIPS run was specified as 24.8N, 78.7W.
|
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
|
|
Looks like 92L if it gets into the Gulf will head up to Florida. How many more storms do you guys think
there will before the season is over?Beaumont did not get a lot of media coverage but was damaged rather extensively.
We have power now but many areas do not. So many trees down. I was told it looked like a war zone right after the storm.
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
This is a link to spaghetti models:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
and this is the intensity for the same systems:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
Question: What tracking models are the intensity ones tied to? Seems like they would be radically different on a track that would spend a lot of time over water than over land.??
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
Edited by Ed in Va (Tue Oct 04 2005 05:01 PM)
|
emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
|
|
I'm just not seeing it. The only rotation I can find, (if it is a rotation) starts at 25N/77W. Then I lose it. Is that a rotation that I'm seeing? I certainly can't find anything where the 1006mb symbol is located. ughhh... 
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
