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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Sarasota3G
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: Sarasota County - Sarasota, Fl... 27.34N 82.47W
Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast [Re: La Nimo]
      #57932 - Wed Oct 05 2005 10:44 PM

I agree, let's listen, and understand, to what the Mets are saying. They have the best idea of what's happening. I live directly in the current "Target Zone" Sarasota, for 93L and until I hear an expert say "GET OUT" I'm not going to make travel plans.

--------------------
Sarasota 3G


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast [Re: Brown Brown]
      #57934 - Wed Oct 05 2005 10:51 PM

IR channel 2 - information.... i think IR 2 works best at night to see lower level clouds... mostly i think was designed to help with fog/low surface features.... IR sat - information water vapor information - will try to find more detailed information....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: various thoughts [Re: Hugh]
      #57935 - Wed Oct 05 2005 10:54 PM

Quote:


I'm a BIT concerned about Tammy still. It made landfall 90 minutes ago or so... and has done nothing but looked MORE impressive on IR since then... it's gonna dump a lot of rain... hopefully that's all.




That's another thing I've been watching all day. Earlier, 93L was puhing NNE, Tammy was moving north up the coast and was forcing the back of 93L to turn around her. Since Tammy got further NW and 93L got pushed out to the east the air flowing off 93L's back has been given room to manoevre behind Tammy. It now looks like that air could be re-inforcing Tammy and spinning her at the same time.

Like I've said all along, I'm new to this, and I could be mistaken again. I hope I am otherwise Tammy could turn quite vicious.

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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Brown Brown
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57936 - Wed Oct 05 2005 11:06 PM

Looks to me it's beginning to start to spin in the right direction, like it's big and bad enough now, and the tentitive eye is still there, after a couple hours, and now totally ringed with clouds near 40,000 ft.

Where's Nostradamus?

Um, there's no eye there. You're looking for something out of a disorganized mass of nothing. Your posts are the one being debunked by the pros here -- and at the NHC, for which I refer you to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/060221.shtml -- not anyone else's. We welcome and encourage all comments, but quite frankly this is just getting a little out of hand. If you have any questions, please PM one of the moderators or the poster in question instead of using the message board as your personal discussion forum. Thank you. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Wed Oct 05 2005 11:22 PM)


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Convergence
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
Re: various thoughts [Re: dave foster]
      #57937 - Wed Oct 05 2005 11:07 PM

At best, the improved environment will allow Tammy to maintain its integrity for a bit longer. Looking at the IR and WV pics, though, I certainly haven't seen any improvment. Should just be lots of rain.

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Convergence
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast [Re: Brown Brown]
      #57938 - Wed Oct 05 2005 11:07 PM

Quote:

Looks to me it's beginning to start to spin in the right direction, like it's big and bad enough now, and the tentitive eye is still there, after a couple hours, and now totally ringed with clouds near 40,000 ft.

Where's Nostradamus?




You do understand that it's impossible for any kind of "eye" feature to form at his stage, right?


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Brown Brown
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast [Re: Brown Brown]
      #57939 - Wed Oct 05 2005 11:09 PM

IR channel 2 - information.... i think IR 2 works best at night to see lower level clouds...

Yeah, I think you are right. Always seemed kinda useless to me.


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Tracey
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast [Re: Brown Brown]
      #57940 - Wed Oct 05 2005 11:11 PM

I have been busy all day and haven't heard anything about the system trying to form in the Gulf - Yucatan ...Cuba, whereever, ... . Can anyone tell me what what the mets are saying about its forecast?

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jbmusic
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Brown Brown]
      #57941 - Wed Oct 05 2005 11:14 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------
Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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Brown Brown
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast [Re: Convergence]
      #57942 - Wed Oct 05 2005 11:15 PM

"You do understand that it's impossible for any kind of "eye" feature to form at his stage, right?"

Well, let's just call it the little clear area closely surrounded by clouds 40,000 ft. in the air, in the interim.

And your predicition is? Forget that part?


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast [Re: jbmusic]
      #57946 - Wed Oct 05 2005 11:19 PM

Quote:


Is there an ignore button we can use on this guy?





One of the benefits of registering an account:

Click on the user name of interest. When viewing their profile, there is a link at the bottom titled "Ignore this user". Click the link and your profile remembers to ignore any posts by that user. If you ever feel like listening again, going to their profile, that "ignore this user" link now says "stop ignoring this user".

Simple, easy, and adviseable. This type of troll doesn't listen to polite encouragement or even less-than-subtle warnings about what is tolerated by this community.


Anyone else find it humorous that someone claiming "Ad-hominem" is being used against him is attempting the same by belittling others?

/just sayin...
//thanks again oh mighty mods of the CFHC for cleaning up the mess

brown knows enough big words so that he obviously isn't stupid. i'm of the opinion that he knows better and all that crap was just to stir up the forum. if we see anymore i'll make it disappear, so no matter. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Oct 06 2005 02:09 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
fun with follow-ons [Re: tpratch]
      #57962 - Thu Oct 06 2005 02:20 AM

forget all the early modeling was pushing our yucatan disturbance nne: the focus of that system has shifted east, south of cuba now. there's actually a good bit of convergence down there and the shear isn't as much as an issue... maybe that mid-level vorticity to the northwest will induce a surface feature there as well. if something stirs up it will be more of a bahamas issue, maybe southeast or east florida... but do the math in the long-run--if it develops and rides up ahead of the oncoming shortwave, it'll make an intensification run up the eastern seaboard. so yeah, big deal if it closes off. the eastern carolinas up to new england would be the endgame of such a system, so stay appraised.
94L may beat it to classification. the system has gotten incrementally further from the lowest latitudes and is in a modestly good environment with some improvement.. as the trough to the northwest will likely force ridging over the top of the weak system. this may be classified during thursday or friday.
watch the disturbed weather persistently firing near the center of the upper low that sits at the 24N51W in that upper trough axis. some globals favor a surface system developing there, and as long as it moves in tandem with the larger upper system it can continue to work the system downward in the atmosphere. if the convection keeps going as it has been, expect the TWO to start picking up on it tomorrow.
outside chance another low forms in the disturbed weather riding up east of tammy. minor model support for such a thing... with all the confused feedback in the models it's hard to know what to buy into.
HF 0620z06october


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Susan in Jupiter, FL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Re: fun with follow-ons [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57963 - Thu Oct 06 2005 04:56 AM

Last night between 10 p.m. and 12 a.m. in Jupiter we had tons of thunder, lightning, and rain. Don't know if this was the tail end of Tammy or the beginning of whatever is happening S/SW of us. The thunder just had a really weird sound to it. Just wonder if there's any reason for thunder to sound differently.

--------------------
Susan in Jupiter, FL Survived:
Andrew, Irene, Charley, Francis,
Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Wilma


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: fun with follow-ons [Re: Susan in Jupiter, FL]
      #57964 - Thu Oct 06 2005 06:31 AM

Looking at the dieing burst of convection south of Cuba, that definately looks like a blob of nothingness. The models aren't even initializing 93L in that location - 93L is initialized between the tip of the Yucatan and the end of Cuba in an area that looks to have very little convection. I'm seeing some convection starting up there this morning, and some weak turning, but there just aren't enough convective cells yet. This system lacks the time to develop deep convection and get organized before reaching Florida. If it had another week over water, we could see something out of it, but it doesn't.

94L is getting better organized...but it's hard to tell what it's doing since there isn't a floater on it and it's right on the break point between the western atlantic SSD frame and the slower updating eastern atlantic SSD frame. Using GHCC GOES instead, I can see that the system's deep convection has weekened overnight, but it still is presenting a formidable picture on IR. There is little evidence of turning, and its organization is lacking. However, it still has several days before it reaches the any islands, so it will be a system we will have to continue to watch. There is no SAL out there to affect it, but I'm also not really seeing anything that will make this system bloom. I'd guess we're in for another weak storm in the near term. We'll have to see how its track moves before guessing at the long term.

--RC


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: fun with follow-ons [Re: Random Chaos]
      #57965 - Thu Oct 06 2005 06:54 AM

Quote:

Looking at the dieing burst of convection south of Cuba, that definately looks like a blob of nothingness. The models aren't even initializing 93L in that location - 93L is initialized between the tip of the Yucatan and the end of Cuba in an area that looks to have very little convection. I'm seeing some convection starting up there this morning, and some weak turning, but there just aren't enough convective cells yet. This system lacks the time to develop deep convection and get organized before reaching Florida. If it had another week over water, we could see something out of it, but it doesn't.
--RC




Uh.... 93L is initialized where the center of circulation is. Looking at the latest WV loop.... there is moisture there, albeit not a lot of it. It's going to be slow to develop if it develops at all. The problem to me isn't lack of convection, but more the upper level winds just are fighting it too much. Interestingly, the low level center seems to have stopped moving overnight, after moving rather briskly yesrerday.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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