Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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There is an invest on this system 98L...
Dave
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Kept checking it this morning to see if they would put up an invest.
Maybe in a while will be working. All I get is: Hardware Failure
Sorry, but we are experiencing some hardware difficulties. We are working to restore service as soon as possible.
Thanks for the heads up, will keep checking it.
Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
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Yup, the Navy site has been down but they just put 98L up on the back up site. I'll tell ya, the Navy somehow always gets their sat pics to make the systems look more defined then they really are.
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Inital plots are up for 98L on the South Florida Water Management site. Fair chance for this to develop although the computer models differ dramatically in its track.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Thanks for the correction/update... I couldn't find anything on the Navy site or any model output for it, so I assumed it had not been "invest-ed" yet. They actually did do a SHIPS run in the last hour or so. The output suggests a generally favorable environment until around 72 hours. Track forecasts mostly suggest a very slow W or WNW movement:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_98.gif
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Please read the site Rules (see above) and use the PM capability for posts like this.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Oct 15 2005 08:43 AM)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Looks like we have a tropical depression already for 98L. The indicates a 1006 mb low and there is heavy convection firing around the center - just probably waiting for a plane to confirm it. This looks like it has the potential to be a huge storm with low shear and mid-80s SSTs in the western Carribean. Global models generally drfit it W-NW for the next 4-5 days - hope we don't get another "Mitch" explosion with likely to be . Certainly bears watching especially for west coast of FL residents since climatology would track the system N-NE into the eastern GOM. However, if High Pressure remains strong over the SE states, it could be a central america threat too. Just have to wait & see - looks like we'll at least tie 1933 with 21 named storms for the most ever this never-ending year.
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RJB
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Some other models, one of which goes over S. FL.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Looking at some of the longer-range models, it does not appear that the weather pattern would favor much northward movement (if it develops) until the 4-5 day time range or longer. If it moves as slowly as some of the models indicate, it may still be around to pose a threat to the U.S. by then, but it could easily have moved into Mexico or Central America by that timeframe.
The convection still isn't very well organized right now. Given its proximity to Jamaica and slow movement, it still may take awhile for it to become more organized, if it does at all. It definitely appears to have a chance, though.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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appears there is no radar picture for jamica on the internet right now, but i did find this:
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/forecast.asp -jamica
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES - cuba
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Oct 14 2005 04:36 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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From the latest (5:30 pm ET issuance):
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO POSSIBLY FORM LATER TONIGHT
OR ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... AND INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... CUBA... AND THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Fri Oct 14 2005 05:14 PM)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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12Z Euro brings the system to the Yuc Straits in 168 hrs as a hurricane or stong tropical storm. Other globals such as and UKMET drift it slowly west toward the Yuc Pen. So far, the global models show the Bermuda Ridge re-establishing a summer-like position in 4-5 days with no troughs intruding into the SE US. I dont expect a northerly turn anytime soon so it should intensify into a hurricane with time. The most critical timing will be in the 5-7 day out period with this storm likely to be in the western Caribbean, Yuc Straits, or southern GOM. Any trough digging toward the Gulf Coast would then turn it N and then NE. Odds are this time of year we would see a trough by 7 days, although this has been a strange year with the Bermuda High being exceptionally strong over the SE. 
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...5101412!!!step/
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RJB
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Quote:
12Z Euro brings the system to the Yuc Straits in 168 hrs as a hurricane or stong tropical storm. Other globals such as and UKMET drift it slowly west toward the Yuc Pen. So far, the global models show the Bermuda Ridge re-establishing a summer-like position in 4-5 days with no troughs intruding into the SE US. I dont expect a northerly turn anytime soon so it should intensify into a hurricane with time. The most critical timing will be in the 5-7 day out period with this storm likely to be in the western Caribbean, Yuc Straits, or southern GOM. Any trough digging toward the Gulf Coast would then turn it N and then NE. Odds are this time of year we would see a trough by 7 days, although this has been a strange year with the Bermuda High being exceptionally strong over the SE.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...5101412!!!step/
I agree with this. And also this could be another track IF there is a trough to pull it N then NNE. If not then might be another Mexico hit IF it develops. They are forecasting the High sitting over Fl to move W into Tx. So for the next few days its going to get interesting once again.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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GFDL has 98L at a Cat 4 in 4 days... Hmmmm
Dave
Edited by Old Sailor (Fri Oct 14 2005 08:31 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Actually, if you go by pressure, the 18Z makes 98L a cat 5 hurricane, with the pressure bottoming out at 910 mb in 114 hours. It also drifts the system WSW towards Honduras, though it keeps it offshore through 126 hours and starts to nudge it more to the NW at the end of the forecast period. The must be having a Mitch flashback.
The 00Z SHIPS run shows much more modest strengthening and the track models in the SHIPS output mostly show a W then WSW drift through 120 hours.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Fri Oct 14 2005 10:55 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Our local meterologist said this might be a threat to Florida down the road. Any thoughts on that? Also, on possible
development is a hurricane likely? Looks like we may get a out of this one. Would be neat if Alpha is used this season also
since that has never happened. I mentioned to my husband tonight that three weeks ago at this time weather here was going
downhill. Of course, we weren't here at that time. Time sure passes fast. Seems a lot of records have been set this season.
It will be interesting to see when all the information is in concerning the different storms what records were set this year.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Long term models show 98L going into Mex or Tx.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I can tell here that the storm is already effecting animal life. The ants have been steadily building antbeds everywhere and the domestic animals have been very busy and territorial.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i hope the ukm is not on to something.... looks like the high will build across the atlantic and looks to me, how far west will it stretch over florida/se us, is the big question?..... saw the takes up to the east of florida now.... not buying that just yet....GFS and .... go toward the westsouthwest, then possibly back to the nw.....i think conditions appear good for rapid intensification.... ... and i wouldn't be susprised if we have a TD at 5am..... or a TS at 11am.....not doub't that will have a named storm i think by afternoon..... (think a record will be set today).......
ukm 2005101500
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Quote:
i hope the ukm is not on to something.... looks like the high will build across the atlantic and looks to me, how far west will it stretch over florida/se us, is the big question?..... saw the takes up to the east of florida now.... not buying that just yet....GFS and .... go toward the westsouthwest, then possibly back to the nw.....i think conditions appear good for rapid intensification.... ... and i wouldn't be susprised if we have a TD at 5am..... or a TS at 11am.....not doub't that will have a named storm i think by afternoon..... (think a record will be set today).......
ukm 2005101500
The UKMET is taking it simular to what the is taking it too. The takes it too 144K but the SHIPS model only takes it too 61K. Big difference in the intensity. But we will see when it becomes a depression and see what they are grabbing hold onto then. GFDL
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