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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #58419 - Sun Oct 16 2005 10:33 PM

Quote:

how can these two sources have such different data?

The Navy

NOAA




Hm, there's only one area that looks bad to me and that is that dark region in the central gulf that you find on The Navy

Other than that, I think there is a resolution issue here, where
NOAA
is a close up and is also like correcting for an error point.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 16 2005 10:36 PM)


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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: wilma on the way [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #58421 - Sun Oct 16 2005 10:48 PM

Quote:

Correction: the perceived axis of rotation appears to be NE of where the current impressive, albeit small area of very intense convection is occurring; should this persist inside the large circumvellate, I suspect if possible we could have a center refix...




Yes, the perceived axis of rotation does appear to be northeast of the convective blob and this is not the first time today. I have already seen it go through this cycle once today over approx. 18 hours and it now appears to be repeating the cycle. I have been following it on the map that Storm Hunter posted earlier today.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

I put the center at n17.5 w79.0. Check the point of convection at 0145z. What happens next, if the cycle is repeated, this bubbles up for three or four hours then swiftly moves to the southwest (where the current blob is now) and quickly disperses. It's as if the initial convection from the center gets to a certain level then gets sheared from the northeast.

These are just my observations for what it's worth.

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Bear Watch *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: The Force 2005]
      #58422 - Sun Oct 16 2005 10:48 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #58423 - Sun Oct 16 2005 10:50 PM

Tip, that blacl dot is the Loop Current which NOAA all but ignores.
But how about the huge divergence for the coastline?
The Navy has it very warm and NOAA has it very cool,


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #58424 - Sun Oct 16 2005 10:52 PM

I just think that there no way that this storm is going to make it that far out west in the gulf if there suppose to be a trough coming by and picking this system up and taking it to the north east. But for some reason you just never know what going to happend.

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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
Re: Bear Watch [Re: ralphfl]
      #58425 - Sun Oct 16 2005 11:02 PM

Ralph,

Not that it means anything, but the 18Z GFS shows Wilma crossing Central Florida from the west in 8 days. Of course, the chance of error at 8 days is HUGE, but Florida is not out of the clear. I don't think anyone in the gulf is in the clear.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Bear Watch [Re: abyrd]
      #58426 - Sun Oct 16 2005 11:15 PM

don't thik i sounded the all clear at least i don't see those words.I said the trends are to the west if that keeps up maybe it will cross alot of the coast of the yucan and as has been said if its a cat 3 cane no little front is going to move it.

This thread should be called the speculation thead since other then looking ast the models which are trending west other then that its speculation for the next 72 hrs or so enjoy.

Edited by ralphfl (Sun Oct 16 2005 11:16 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #58427 - Sun Oct 16 2005 11:22 PM

Quote:

Tip, that blacl dot is the Loop Current which NOAA all but ignores.
But how about the huge divergence for the coastline?
The Navy has it very warm and NOAA has it very cool,




Oh, I see the issue... It depends on your point of view but I suggest they are peering at the same actual temperature. What is distracting, perhaps only appearing erroneous is that the coloring is set to different temperature scales per respective source. For example, the cut off between the cyan color and the blue (NOAA) is around 50kj/cm^2, where as the cut off between cyan and blue on the Navy site is down around 10. That is why the near shore water temps are much cooler in appearance on the NOAA site.

Any thoughts?


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #58428 - Sun Oct 16 2005 11:27 PM

true.

and measuring in Cal vs Joule. not equal?


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Bear Watch [Re: ralphfl]
      #58429 - Sun Oct 16 2005 11:29 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I have look at all the observations and must say by tomorrow we will have Wilma, and that the West Coast of FLA will be impacted by a significant hurricane. As I stated last night SST's along her path will be above normal, around 86 degrees or higher. No one wants to say it, but I believe that a CAT 4 is not out of the question.





there and NONE at this time not any models that show the west coast of Florida.I don't dispute you on the cat 4 that could happen but what are you useing that the NHC is not?




Hi, actually, NHC points out on their site that those charts are "Experimental"....But, you are right that they've shifted W. I wrote something extensive about this subject matter. If you like, read it and then tell me what your opinion is; I'd be interested in hearing it. Also, as far as that "cone" goes - wow, it's a biggy ay? I suggest bigger than usual, and perhaps an homage to their own uncertainty. Lastly, it does bring the threat of tropical storm force winds upon the Pennisula so they certainly are not out of the woods.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #58430 - Sun Oct 16 2005 11:30 PM

...And, that was dumb on my part: I shouldn't have said "temperature", I should have said "heat content"; must remember to conserve my units

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #58431 - Sun Oct 16 2005 11:35 PM

Quote:

true.

and measuring in Cal vs Joule. not equal?




Also, they are not equal - to answer your question..
Joule to cal conversion -> (Joule) * .23006
This would definitely skew those plots...


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Bear Watch [Re: The Force 2005]
      #58432 - Sun Oct 16 2005 11:51 PM

My advice to everyone. Have a plan and have it early. Once this thing (if it gets into the Gulf) gets into the Gulf and they have
a better handle on it look at that cone of error and if you are in it figure out where you will go if the storm
is headed for your area. Make reservations then if you need to. You can always cancel if the storm
heads somewhere else. One word of advise--if you make them
on-line double check with the hotel. This is what I did and so I had my reservation when I reached my destination. But I had
friends who made them online and then when they got to the hotel the rooms had been given to someone else. They did not call
the hotel direct. Make sure you check with the hotel to see if you have a reservation before you head out. Plan to be gone at least
a week. We were gone 10 days but some here were gone over 2 weeks. If you don't have to evacuate, get everything done early to
shelter in place. Stock up on LOTS of water and canned goods. And if you leave take water, food, and flashlights. And don't leave
your pets. We had pets running loose looking for food here (with all of the fences down). If you do
have to evacuate leave at an "off" time if you can. We left at 3:30 a.m. the Friday morning before Rita hit.
Anyway, those are my tips.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Bear Watch [Re: Jamiewx]
      #58433 - Mon Oct 17 2005 12:01 AM

Quote:

Interesting Climatology Image from weatherunderground.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200524_climo.gif

I have seen a couple of maps now suggesting that Florida would be the Climatologically favored target.




No way this thing is coming to Florida. I refuse to even consider the possibility.
THe weather is getting so absolutely gorgeous the past few days that it is simply
unthinkable that a storm would dare cast a shadow on the Sunshine state.

Seriously, I know it can happen and I'm keeping an eye out like everyone else.

I am just not in hurricane mode anymore. Enough is enough.

Go away Wilma.......who ever heard of a cane named Wilma anyway.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Bear Watch [Re: ralphfl]
      #58437 - Mon Oct 17 2005 12:23 AM

Models are not gospel either. They are interpretations of what could possibly be. So in reality they are speculation also, albeit with some accuracy. So everyone keep there cool, its all speculation to a certain extent.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Bear Watch [Re: ralphfl]
      #58440 - Mon Oct 17 2005 12:57 AM

Hmm models trending west does not mean that they will not trend east again once this develops. Low intensity systems such as waves and depressions and for the most part tropical storms usually move westward until they develop into more intense hurricanes, then they tend to move more polar. While I have over simplified this, with ridges, troughs etc also playing their role, its not usual to see what is occuring happening. The storm hasnt picked up much steam as earlier models thought, and have corrected themselves with each model run. Does that mean that this wont be picked up by a trough and moved to the north and east ? Sure it does not.

I think I can say is that I appreciate everyone's responses, those who go out on a limb and 'speculate". Its important to think out of the box and noone should be put down for doing so. What is important is the sharing of ideas and thoughts, in a constructive manner. The moderators do a great job and the meteorologists point out when we they think we are off base.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Bear Watch [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #58441 - Mon Oct 17 2005 01:06 AM

One other note, the latests 101700Z CMC Model does show a hit up the I4 Corridor (as horrible of a peformer as it has been) and the GFS hints at a NE Turn, as does the UK MET..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Bear Watch [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #58442 - Mon Oct 17 2005 01:22 AM

well from what i can tell 00 CMC, still going with a tampa landfall, late in the weekend....

and if this is the 00z GFS ..... it's now going into yucatan, then into BOC ...then a loop back to the east and out towards cuba and ne

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 17 2005 01:24 AM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Bear Watch [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #58443 - Mon Oct 17 2005 01:39 AM

Quote:

One other note, the latests 101700Z CMC Model does show a hit up the I4 Corridor (as horrible of a peformer as it has been) and the GFS hints at a NE Turn, as does the UK MET..





Ok now that you are posting some facts and just not off the top of your head the CMC yes it shows tampa but as said if 1 other model showed that i would even look at it.#2 the GFS does not take it into florida it takes it east way down the road under Florida and #3 i have no clue what ukmet you are looking at but that run you posted it has it going to south america with no turn at all.

So 1 model which NHC does not even use has it going to tampa ill sleep ok if that is the only model showing a I4 area hit.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Bear Watch [Re: ralphfl]
      #58444 - Mon Oct 17 2005 01:45 AM

hmm..... models appear to move more west.....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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