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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean
      #58217 - Sat Oct 15 2005 08:45 AM

8AM Sunday Update
Tropical Depression 24 is very slowly getting its act together. The current intensity forecast brings it to at or near a Category 2 hurricane by the end of the run (120 hours out) near the western tip of Cuba.

It is likely to become Tropical Storm Wilma sometime later today or tonight.

If this system were to impact the Gulf coast or Florida, it would be seen very late in the week, therefore there is quite a bit of time to discern what may happen and where it may go. Anything beyond a few days at this point is speculation. Therefore, it's important for folks in Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast to watch this one over the next several days to see if the suggested northward turn happens. (It may not)

If you want to let us know what you think of where the system may go, use the forecast lounge.

7PM Update
TD#24 has formed in the western Caribbean. Movement may bend toward the north in the later term. More to come in the future.

The system is expected to strengthen potentially toward hurricane status, and would be Wilma, the last name in the Atlantic list. There exists some potential for a major hurricane to form out of this.


Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.

Original Update
The tropical wave that has formed in the western Caribbean, 98L near Jamaica isn't quite tropical yet, but it seems likely that it will develop into a tropical depression this morning. And likely head generally westward toward Central America seems the most likely path at this moment. However, some models do take it northwest over Cuba, and in that case we'll have to watch it as well.

Recon may fly out to check this system later today.




Conditions are improving for development, and strengthening is a good possibility if it stays south of Cuba (which I believe is likely to happen). If so, Intensity wise, this storm will have a lot going for it in its favor in the next few days.

Chances for tropical development of the disturbance near Jamaica in the next two days (98L).
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-------------------*--]



We'll be watching and updating as necessary.


Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands

98L


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: MikeC]
      #58218 - Sat Oct 15 2005 09:03 AM

Looking at the models, it looks like Wilma could be another short-lived storm, heading into Central America - although Lyons said it was expected to turn more to the north later in the forecast period (toward the GOM)... don't know what he was basing that on because ALL of the models show it moving WSW except for LBAR which turns it NE through the Bahamas.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: Hugh]
      #58219 - Sat Oct 15 2005 09:16 AM

Not quite ALL of the models - the UKMET and the GFDL both eventually turn the system northwestward as high pressure anchored to the north of the system eventually (and slowly) moves off to the east. I'll post some thoughts on this system in a new Met Blog.
ED


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: MikeC]
      #58222 - Sat Oct 15 2005 09:19 AM

(repost from the other thread...which was posted before I realized we had a new thread! )

It looks to me that the 06Z run of the GFDL hooks the storm northward in the last couple frames. From that view, it looks like this thing could go an unexpected direction - so everyone better watch this system.

GFDL has, however, dropped off in intensity. It's only showing Cat 3 now...as if Cat 3 was something we should say "only" about. Given that the GFDL is a fickle intensity model, and that the runs aren't dissipating this storm, I think we've got another potentially major system on our hands.

--RC


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Hugh
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #58223 - Sat Oct 15 2005 09:26 AM

Quote:

Not quite ALL of the models - the UKMET and the GFDL both eventually turn the system northwestward as high pressure anchored to the north of the system eventually (and slowly) moves off to the east. I'll post some thoughts on this system in a new Met Blog.
ED




I see what you mean, Ed... but that's still not due north like Lyons seemed to imply. All of the models on Skeetobite's site have it eventually making landfall between El Salvador and the Yucatan... well, UKMET now that I look closely has it just missing the Yucatan.

Looking at the visible loops, I'm not convinced that it even develops a circulation before it heads into the EPac. I keep thinking of the last system we had in this area that eventually just fell apart. Of course I'm looking at big satellite loops - why does NRL always have problems whenever there is a developing system????

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: Hugh]
      #58224 - Sat Oct 15 2005 09:32 AM

I was watching this through the wee hours when it was just south of Jamaica. Looking at the maps now I'd say it's been edging southwest over the the last eight hours - not a very appealing prospect for those states that suffered very badly from Stan.

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #58226 - Sat Oct 15 2005 10:12 AM

Quote:

Not quite ALL of the models - the UKMET and the GFDL both eventually turn the system northwestward as high pressure anchored to the north of the system eventually (and slowly) moves off to the east. I'll post some thoughts on this system in a new Met Blog.
ED




Ed, I'd add the 00Z Euro to the UKMET & GFDL that turn the system NW aiming for the Yuc Straits or going through it as the Euro brings the system into the southern GOM in 168 hrs. No doubt things will change in future forecasts, but what's a little disturbing this far out is this mornings HPC Disc:

00Z/18Z NCEP MEANS SHOW LESS MID-LATE WEEK RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS VERSUS THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN... AND MAY HAVE SOME VALIDITY IN LIGHT OF THE GREENLAND/DAVIS STRAIT RIDGE. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFS IN HOW THE SOLNS ARE ARRIVED AT... NEARLY ALL 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES REINFORCEMENT OF THE ERN CONUS TROF WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER OR JUST N OF THE GRTLKS BY DAY 7 SAT.

Doesn't look good if this thing gets into the GOM for eastern Gulf Residents.

--------------------
RJB


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: Ron Basso]
      #58227 - Sat Oct 15 2005 10:40 AM

Do we have any cold fronts coming down from the NorthWest during that formation period? Our Eastern GOM Mexico residents have been saved by the Bell on those massive storms so often, that the complacency north of Port Charlotte is still there.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #58229 - Sat Oct 15 2005 10:51 AM

If this thing is still around in 4-5 days, it will likely be pulled northward. However, if it is already moved into Central America by then, it will be a moot point. The key will be just how slowly it moves over the next few days, and how far south it ends up drifting before the steering currents become better defined. Right now, it is difficult to imagine it hanging around long enough to eventually be pulled northward as any kind of significant tropical cyclone.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: Ron Basso]
      #58230 - Sat Oct 15 2005 10:53 AM

Thanks Ron B, that is the kind of info I was hoping someone would post.

It looks like this thing will be perfectly happy hanging out in the NW Caribbean for some days, going WSW towards Honduras and Nicaragua, and then W or NW, north of Honduras, taking that last available name...and if it stays there, in the warm water of the extreme NW Caribbean, next week we may all be watching on the edge of our seats (again), depending on where it is going to be steered, if it'll round Cuba into the GOM, and if conditions will be favorable there.

But even if it makes landfall in Central America and only makes it to Cat 1 status, it'll still use up the last name on the list. Then with six weeks still left, the 2005 season could be making history once again this year.

What I'd be interested in hearing is some discussion on...fast forward back to 48 hours ago, "tropics are quiet, not favorable for development." Everything looks so different on sat today, all cleaned up (except for poor Central America). After days and days of that trough, big changes the last couple days in the western ATL and Caribbean. It really caught me off guard; I'd been lulled into complacency. What precipitated the changes? What should I have been looking for?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #58232 - Sat Oct 15 2005 10:56 AM

Quote:

If this thing is still around in 4-5 days, it will likely be pulled northward. However, if it is already moved into Central America by then, it will be a moot point. The key will be just how slowly it moves over the next few days, and how far south it ends up drifting before the steering currents become better defined. Right now, it is difficult to imagine it hanging around long enough to eventually be pulled northward as any kind of significant tropical cyclone.




That's my feeling, too. It's far too early to speculate on the 4-5 day motion of a system that doesn't exist as a tropical entity yet, but it just seems like it will move too quickly to still be in the Caribbean in 4-5 days, which would be necessary for it to get pulled northward. Having said that, looking at the visible loop, it really ISN'T moving right now, that I can tell. It also doesn't look to be organizing quickly - not enough daylight images to identify a clear LLC yet. I don't think we'll have a T.D. today.

Edit: On second thought.... maybe I'm missing something cuz the TWO says it is developing.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Oct 15 2005 11:27 AM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #58234 - Sat Oct 15 2005 11:02 AM

i'll second ron's take on the synoptic worry we'd have if this system gets going. it's getting later in the year for such systems to plunge westward into mexico, though that could surely happen... usually they try to come up this time of year. if i was in florida i'd keep Wilma in mind next week. globals show a broad-base trough off the east coast keeping it kinda stuck for the next couple of days, then some ridging building in from the east that could push it n or nw. still not much there, and the big scatter in the dynamic and global tracks seems to be evidence that it won't move a whole lot for the next few days. a more legit ridge will be in place around mid-week, so it's more likely to come nw around then, if that's in the cards. still 98L on the navy site, so no upgrade at 11am. actually, just looked at the euro solution and that's the one i like. it's got a real system and more realistic behavior than the other globals do at this point (trying to split it, part ne, part w). euro shows a tropical cyclone in the yucatan channel next weekend.
looks like no recon until tomorrow, so NHC will downplay the system unless it has clearly developed.
HF 1502z15october

note, it does say that resources permitting they will investigate it later today. not sure of the status on that. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Oct 15 2005 11:03 AM)


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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: Hugh]
      #58235 - Sat Oct 15 2005 11:03 AM

This might be useful to you Storm Watchers.

A Google Earth overlay of the GOM and East Carribean Buoys with direct hyperlinks to them.

Looks like pressure is rising slowly from the northwest. Could that block the progress of
93L to the west? Anyone?

http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com/download.shtml

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: dave foster]
      #58236 - Sat Oct 15 2005 11:15 AM

Quote:


Looks like pressure is rising slowly from the northwest. Could that block the progress of
93L to the west? Anyone?
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com/download.shtml




I seriously doubt that 93L is going to go west, since 93L does not exist currently. 98L might go west, or north, though.

If the pressure is rising to the NW of the system.... well, yes, that could block it.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: HanKFranK]
      #58237 - Sat Oct 15 2005 11:18 AM

Quote:


looks like no recon until tomorrow, so NHC will downplay the system unless it has clearly developed.
HF 1502z15october
note, it does say that resources permitting they will investigate it later today. not sure of the status on that. -HF




This is the TWO at 1130am ET (15 minutes from now ):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a tropical
depression appears to be developing in the western Caribbean Sea
just west of Jamaica. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is
scheduled to be in the area this afternoon to determine if a
tropical depression has formed. This system is accompanied by a
large area of squalls which is already affecting Jamaica and the
adjacent waters. All indications are that this system will move
very slowly toward the west over the warm waters bewteen Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands during the next few days...and could become
a tropical storm or even a hurricane . Interests in Jamaica...Cuba
...The Cayman Islands...and the remainder of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of this
developing weather system.

A TWO mentioning the possibility of a currently "undeveloped" system (since it has not yet been called TD 24) becoming Hurricane Wilma in the NW Caribbean... OUCH!



--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Oct 15 2005 11:35 AM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: HanKFranK]
      #58239 - Sat Oct 15 2005 12:06 PM

Quote:



note, it does say that resources permitting they will investigate it later today. not sure of the status on that. -HF




...ah, yeah...i wonder what's up with that, too. i noticed that hpc has yet to reposition goes floaters 1 and 2 and they're still peering them out over nothingness - this is both annoying and odd. usually, they got at least one fixated at the slightest prefigurement of - notwithstanding synoptics of the moment.

(political commentary is not permitted on this site - ED)

models and synopsis: did anyone get a gander at the CMC (ggem) for the middle-end of next week? a potent deepener crosses cuba (which most know is a relatively flat land mass)? for this meteorologist, i would not discount any solution that runs this thing up anywhere from new orleans to even just east of florida, then charging north. so...i agree...

all the operational groups suggest something interesting... the nao (north atlantic oscillation) phase is progged to flip negative next week... hmmm... with tall heights and blocking enveloping the lat/lons around the davis straight area and greenland, the natural teleconnection would suggest some kind of counter-balancing negative in the great lakes, ohio valley and mid-atlantic regions... sorry for the lesson, but the reason i'm saying this is because the ecm, CMC, and even the GFDL, all strongly indicate a potent mid-level s/w will be plunging into the se missouri valley area. intuitively, this would configure strong S components at mid-levels along and off the east coast of the u.s.. should "wilma" flirt with such resultant ssw steering fields (if moving along fast enough she would also be less susceptible to shear...) the ne gulf and florida would be jeopardized. in fact, if these background cues become dominantly influential in establishing a path of least resistance (essentially the universal law of storm motion for hurricanes), i wouldn't even lower my guard up along the eastern seaboard - though admittedly, that is (at this time) the lesser of concerns. point being, the trough placement approaching the ohio valley and cross from the missouri valley later in times actually the preferred synopsis given to a very strongly negative assertion of the nao.. we'll just have to see where the 12Z runs take this... strangely, the 06Z GFS seems to go off the deep end by maintaining a large positive anomaly near davis straight, while keep the winds essentially unsavory zonal at our latitude.. that doesn't taste like the right solution.. especially with a tendency for strong gulf of alaska lows... this arrangement of players is more akin to the ecm/cmc solution, and that is why those solutions are not so easily discounted in my mind...

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 16 2005 11:54 AM)


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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: HanKFranK]
      #58240 - Sat Oct 15 2005 01:07 PM

here's the "Climatological Areas of Origin and Typical Hurricane Tracks by Month" from the NHC..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

October shows storms are most likely climatologically anyway to form right near where this storm is now and head north and then northeast with the prevailing track right over S. FL and up into LI area.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/october.gif


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #58242 - Sat Oct 15 2005 01:17 PM

Cuba isnt a mostly flat landmass.....It is mostly moutainous except in the extreme western half of the island.

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Goosus
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Boise ID
Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #58243 - Sat Oct 15 2005 01:25 PM

Re:

"since western europeans stole this continent"

&

"an administration that is not ultimately concerned with public safety"

How about you take this junk somewhere else other than a meteorological board?


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Watching Near Jamaica [Re: scottsvb]
      #58244 - Sat Oct 15 2005 01:25 PM



...right, which the most likely area of a Wilma transit if she comes to pass... one would think. the mountains you speak of however are not as impressive as some of the neighboring land masses or that archipelago... that is why i said "relatively" flat, because comparable to these other islands it is "flatter". at least, that was what i was taught of the area. it may very well be that there are 10,000 ft peaks there that i am not aware, but the information i've gathered over the years regarding the geography of the island is that it is lesser an inhibitor to tropical cyclone interaction than say...hispanola... that was the main point.


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