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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Concern - South of Jamaica
      #58225 - Sat Oct 15 2005 10:09 AM

A Tropical Depression is slowly developing in the west central Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica and this system is likely to become a tropical cyclone this weekend - probably on Sunday. Banding features need to improve and a consolidated circulation center needs to form before this system can be classified.

This morning (15/12Z) two mid-level centers are evident - one at 17N 77.5W and the other at 18N 78.6W. The system has maintained good convection overnight and that trend is likely to continue. Wind shear in the area is light and decreasing and steering currents are nil, so intensification is likely, but movement will be very slow.

Blocking high pressure is located well to the north of the system and this high is expected to move slowly eastward. With no significant steering currents the developing tropical cyclone will move very little over the next few days - perhaps a slight drift to the west or west southwest as the center of the high pressure ridge slides to the north of the system. By late Monday or Tuesday, as the high finally slides to the east, the next short wave and cold front (well to the northwest) should pull the future Wilma more northwestward toward the Yucatan.

With light shear and warm SSTs, this system has good potential to reach hurricane strength early next week. Because the system will have little movement for the next two or three days, heavy rainfall and significant flooding are likely over Jamaica and eastern Cuba - and eventually the Cayman Islands.

An active tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic with a broad area of low pressure near 10N 33W at 15/12Z is moving very little and upper atmospheric conditions are not favorable for developmemnt of this system over the next couple of days.
ED


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