MikeC
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7:55 PM Tuesday Update
Wilma's small core is spinning up rapidly, as we've seen with several storms this year. The pressure has fallen about 30mb from this morning--but 16mb in the last few hours. Currently at 954 and still plunging.. the winds should match it near category 3 status before daybreak. Strong possibility that will reach category 4 status tomorrow. Good news is that will be likely start encountering eyewall replacement cycles, and be vulnerable to shear and subsidence based on the storm profile. -HF
12:30PM Tuesday Update
Wilma is now the season's 12th hurricane, tying the record for most in a season with 1969.
Original Update
is now a Strong Tropical storm, nearly forming into the season's 12th hurricane. It will likely do so this morning.
A tropical storm warning is up for Honduras and the Cayman islands, and Hurricane watch is up in the Caymans as well.
has moved south and west over the day yesterday, and has now stopped moving entirely. Although I dislike using models on storms that are not moving mainly because of what occured in this area with Hurricane Mitch in 1998 , most suggest the storm to move north and west, and eventually make a sharp hook back to the east.
The far end now places Florida in the cone of uncertainty, and the current forecast track has landfall in southwest Florida as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.
There is what I would call very little confidence in the current late track, and will likely change. Folks in the cone of uncertainty will need to watch this. Until makes a definitive move somewhere it's impossible to speculate on exactly where the storm may make landfall.
should increase into a major hurricane, it is forecast to do so, but at this time it looks like when the system is forecast to arrive in the gulf, shear conditions will pick up a great deal. This should weaken back to below major hurricane status. However this is still a hurricane and can cause big problems for those in the path.
It seems that the most prudent thing to do is Watch wimla for a definitive movement and prepare appropriately if needed.
Image courtesy Weather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Emergency Management/County info
Various Florida County Emergency Management Websites
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Wilma
Animated model plot of
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 11:57 PM)
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tpratch
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(copied from last thread)
I'm sorry everyone. This is entirely my fault. You see, this past weekend, I decided to try out for a local soccer team after not having played for the past several years. We have a game lined up for this weekend.
Yup, all my fault here. I should just wash my car to seal the deal. Then again, I could board up today and cause the storm to inexplicably steer away...
decisions, decisions...
Seems the usual round of "should I" has already started in earnest, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. It's better to ponder now than to ignore this storm until it's closer. For now, nobody in the peninsula is necessarily safe. As the tracks get better input and the guidance is more decisive, then we'll be able to make recommendations.
As for the "stay for Cat 3 and under", that really ought to have been qualified a little better:
If you are not in a flood prone area AND you are not in a mobile home AND you are not in an early pre-fab (newer pre-fab buildings are actually very strong), AND you are more than 10-15 feet above sea level AND you are not on the coast, THEN you should be able to ride this out at Cat 3 or lower. Don't rely on neighbors who have ridden storms out before to make your decision - use storm surge maps, models, and every other piece of data you can find. Make an informed decision and please stock up your hurricane supplies if they are diminished.
If you're going to evacuate, make your reservations early (and confirm them), and try to not run screaming from the building (as it tends to scare small children  ).
I think for the sake of levity, someone should break out Dave Barry's Hurricane preparedness article.
Dave Barry's 2001 Hurricane Preparedness Guide
If you get a registration request, a site like BugMeNot will save you some time.
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Birdie
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Quote:
(copied from last thread)
I'm sorry everyone. This is entirely my fault. You see, this past weekend, I decided to try out for a local soccer team after not having played for the past several years. We have a game lined up for this weekend.
Yup, all my fault here. I should just wash my car to seal the deal. Then again, I could board up today and cause the storm to inexplicably steer away...
decisions, decisions...
I'm afraid that I need to take part of the blame too! This weekend I put the kids' trampoline back up. Hubby even pointed out to me that do so was nothing more than an invitation. 
~Laura
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Hugh
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Quote:
I'm afraid that I need to take part of the blame too! This weekend I put the kids' trampoline back up. Hubby even pointed out to me that do so was nothing more than an invitation.
~Laura
What were y'all THINKING?!?!? You plan outdoor activities in Florida for DECEMBER, when hurricane season is (officially) past! 
Good news I suppose - the 8am intermediate advisory is out. Pressure is estimated to be down to 980, but winds are only 70, meaning we'll have to wait until a recon is in there probably before we have the latest hurricane of the 2005 season. I don't remember ever seeing a pressure that low on a tropical storm, but this season has been weird, and the pressures in NW Caribbean are quite low.
The northwest turn has been sooner than forecast, I think. What does this mean? Possibly nothing. CNN was spouting off about "the westerlies" this morning, saying that when a hurricane gets into the northern GOM, it turns east because of the westerlies. Tell the people of New Orleans about "the westerlies". In this case, the computer models are forecasting an east turn by , but it's because of a trough. Troughs are common this time of year, certainly, but to say that storms generally turn east in the GOM is at best stretching the truth, and closer to an outright lie, if you leave off the climatology behind it (troughs), which he did.
Of course, my head hurts so that might effect my judgement this morning.
:?:
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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orlandocanewatcher
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tprach - my three kids also play soccer and all have games throughout the day on Saturday. My husband is already driving me crazy as he runs the league and we have about 200 kids. Do I line the fields on Thursday?? Do I e-mail everyone and just cancel??? I told him to just sit tight for now....we'll definitely know more by then....back to BJ's for more water and supplies....the kids keep eating all the snacks! LOL
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NewWatcher
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Looking at visible sat. it sure seems to me that is further north and west than the points by .
Input......?
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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R2RICKSTER
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Not liking the inland coordinates for Sunday. Puts on top of my house in Delray 
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Andrew was enough for me!
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Myles
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Quote:
The northwest turn has been sooner than forecast, I think. What does this mean? Possibly nothing. CNN was spouting off about "the westerlies" this morning, saying that when a hurricane gets into the northern GOM, it turns east because of the westerlies. Tell the people of New Orleans about "the westerlies". In this case, the computer models are forecasting an east turn by , but it's because of a trough. Troughs are common this time of year, certainly, but to say that storms generally turn east in the GOM is at best stretching the truth, and closer to an outright lie, if you leave off the climatology behind it (troughs), which he did.
Of course, my head hurts so that might effect my judgement this morning.
:?:
Gotta love the media. They do it all the time, telling half-truths and whole lies. The westerlies are obviously not in the gulf all the time like you pointed out with .
However, the shift to the north and east you mentioned may just be a wobble of the center as is continues to come together. Also, since convection is continously firing up and dying off, that can give a false sense of movement. We need a longer term view to really say for sure, but if it is going to turn NE early it will be a good thing for us in Florida!
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charlottefl
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The pressure is down to 980, winds are at 70mph. The thing is though the wind field has expanded from 70 miles to 125 miles out with tropical storm force winds. It looks like that is where is focusing her energy right now. Eventually the winds will catch up though. I would expect to see a Hurricane at 11AM.
Hurricane '04(Port Charlotte, FL)
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tpratch
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Well, almost all GOM storms take a turn to the east just prior to landfall, so there's another "out" for a sweeping generalization like the media is known for.
Being further north and west would usually translate to a slower turn than depicted and a potential landfall further north (and further north on the crossing as well). Of course, that's an over-simplification, but something to sit on.
The will probably take a few liberties with moving the 4th and 5th day points, but they traditionally try very hard to maintain consistency on their track. Don't expect an major change to the track unless something big happens to the models.
Also, I should have expounded upon my claiming the storm. I played soccer from the time I was 6 until I was 20 - many of those years were spent on multiple teams with simultaneous schedules (I drove my mom mad when I had 3 team's schedules that I needed supporting). My last competitive game was played about 12 years ago. Since that time, I've played many pickup/friendly games, but not with any degree of consistency. About 6 months ago I played every Friday night and after 2 months or so I moved. I had mentioned to a guy I played with that I was in the market to play again. He tried to get someone in touch with me, but that faded away until last week. I got a call from a local 1st Division men's team that was in need of my position. So my game last weekend was actually my first competitive game in a decade. It took a little to get into my groove, but I didn't do badly at all. This upcoming weekend is the last chance for me to "earn" my spot on the team before the season begins the following week. So, I figure there's 12 years of planning all hinging on my playing and playing well in less than a week - right about the time when good ol' should be soaking our already innundated fields.
Yeah - I'm going to keep taking the blame on this one because it feels right Of course, I'm not scared of playing in a little (or lot) of rain, so bring it on!*
*so long as that "lot" of rain isn't heralded by 100+mph winds
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wiley
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Or maybe the media just read the morning discussion:
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OF DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS...TOWARD THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREAFTER...
WILMA WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERLIES AND RECURVATURE WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST.
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Wingman51
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Maybe you should play in the wind - - allow you to Bend it better - - seriously - what is the current forcast for the arrival and intensity of the "Front" that will ultimately create the East turn?? :?:
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ROB H
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Loc: Clearwater, FL.
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0600 and models have shifted further north, now has landfall just south of Tampa Bay, and
GFS is a little south of . I am curious to see if this earlier than expected NW drift is a wobble or a trend and how this will effect the future track.
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GuppieGrouper
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Ok, IF this storm landfalls in my area, its my fault, I have put a new roof on, and a new aircondition unit in. Also, I live in an area where no one is prepared and are watching the gas prices fall from $3.06 per gallon down to $2.77 as of last night. There is no accounting for the amount of drawing force the drop of prices has on a potential disaster. Playing sports teases the storm, improving economic conditions enrages the storm.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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sara33
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Now that NCH has "somewhat"called for S. Fla landfall, could the track vary so much as to shift it closer to Tampa Bay? The landfall area usually does not change that dramatically does it, or are we still in the extreme early stage where anything can happen? I guess I am starting to feel a little safer now with the current track..too soon to feel that way?
Thanks,
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL 
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NewWatcher
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IMO yes it way too early to feel safe. You are very close to the thin line and still way within the "cone". You have to still watch this very closely.
I personally think the track will change today at 5 pm if not at 11 am. I am thinking it will move more northerly, so keep an eye (or two) on it.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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bobbutts
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One thing that catches my eye is between 22/12z and 23/00z (landfall time) the has winds go from 94kt to 109kt @ 950mb
Was going on the assumption of some weakening just before landfall.
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Domino
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This should be interesting to watch. I am flying to Miami on Saturday for a cruise leaving on Sunday. Hopefully the cone of uncertainly will prove true and miss us...damn this is going to be close!
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twizted sizter
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Well according to the guidelines we have hurricane now..not surprising based on her appearance this am...was actually thinking it was great not to have to put the plywood up this year...been a strange season.
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Hootowl
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I'm wondering the same thing about the intesity of the front/trough. I had heard earlier that it wouldn't have that big of a "push".
Check out this vis pic http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
She's looking more like a hurricane - maybe at 11?
Do we know if recon is on the way? It sure would be nice to get more info. 
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