chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
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Quote:
The computer models don't look to be going up to the north, BAMM was just ran and it is the exact same, if anything the storm will move more south of florida because it has yet to make that definite turn to the north as lyons said on the WTC. I'm just hoping that this storm goes south of florida and out to sea.
Exactly! But, also the further West moves before turning to the North (and eventually NE) the farther North the track will be
Let me explain myself. Lets say turns more NNW and brushes the southern tip of Cuba and the turns NE. It would then probably stay in the Florida Straights based on the angle.
Now, if stays more Westerly and brushes the Yucitan Penninsula and the turns N to NE it could hit anywhere from Punta Gorda to Cedar Key.
So the bottom line is that any body living on the west coast of Florida should be preparing for a Cat 2/ Cat 3 hurricane.
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Matt
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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What we did was make the reservations 120 hours out just in case but we didn't leave until 3 in the morning on Friday and the storm
hit around 3 in the morning on Saturday. You can't really make plans two or three days out because you might not have a place
to go (unless you go to family then you are okay). So make reservations early. You can always cancel them. That is the most impor-
tant thing. Another thing, make sure you take flashlights. tracked right through Lufkin as a Cat 1 (she hit here as a Cat 3) and
so power was out for a day in Lufkin. Take lots of food and water with you. If it is a Cat 3 or higher, leave if you can.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Colleen - Where is the northward shift with the models? I looked at the models and only two - the and are 18Z. All others are still 12 or 00. Do you have an updated link for the models you saw? The ones i saw still look pretty much the same. Unless you mean northward shift as in south of Naples to Ft. Myers. The models, currently (except LBAR) are at or south of Ft. Myers.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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New rating out - way up! (not that this wasn't expected)
Code:
-> 18/2345 UTC 16.7N 81.8W T5.5/5.5
18/1715 UTC 16.6N 80.9W T4.5/4.5
Source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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I agree! I am also in St. Pete and I am getting ready as well(just in case). I did not hear what Phillips had to say, but he will go out on a limb sometimes and give his true opinion no matter what the says.. I remember that clearley from last year.
Thanks again Colleen for that link, I had no idea that it existed!
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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it's exploding 
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
...the issue is non-backed up info.
If you give evidence to back up your acsertation, then the posts generally get left. If you don't, then the posts generally are sent to the graveyard as either "wishcasting" or "uncorroborated worry-mongering" - you get the idea  .
End result: If you're going to say something's going to become a monster, you better say why you feel that way based on conditions and/or models.
--RC
I agree with that. I try to provide some basis. My post from 6:35a this morning, before was even a hurricane:
"...it is possible that is going to go higher than a Cat 3 in the Caribbean. This newest track is over some of the warmest deep waters that are left. However, doesn't forecast this, and they know a lot more than I do, so we'll see, but I did see the word "intense" hurricane so I think that it's possible they're laying the ground for ramping up the intensity forecast."
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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If were to make landfall S of Ft Myers, what do you think the effects would be as far north as Tampa?
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Front page "spaghetti models" at Colorado State 1800UTC
updated models
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the young weatherman
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Toronto, ON, Canada
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I am seeing another hurricane Andrew hiting florida
(luckily I don't live there)
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Bow down to the The youngest Meoteorologist on Earth!!!!!!! MauHaHa!
You wanna see my lastest forecast for severe weather?
CLick Here
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
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What's the deal with the A98E model? That's quite a right hook!
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL242005
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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Any thoughts on the most recent Canadian Model? I know its always been an outlier, but could the new run have a hint of merit?
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
it's exploding
The feeder bands are being sloughed off (life support that is no longer needed), and she's consolidating.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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You can avoid being stuck in a lot of traffic. We are very glad we evacuated. But we left at 3 in the morning after most people had
already left. One of the problems with was Houston evacuated (and theirs was voluntary except the coastal parts). They came
up our evacuation routes and filled up our shelters and the hotels. We, of course, had a mandatory evacuation because was
headed for us. Also, Houston didn't have contraflow soon enough. We had it early on. It was still slow but part of that was because
of the Houston traffic coming down 69 (which they weren't supposed to do). Overall, our county did well considering. We flew lots
of people out including evacuees that had been staying in Beaumont, Port Arthur, etc. Very few stayed here and that was
why the death toll was so low. We had so many HUGE trees in and on houses that I think more would have died if a lot had stayed.
There were people who stayed but about 90% of the county evacuated. It has been a little over three weeks since and most
have electricity but some still don't. You have to think about all of that if you plan to stay. We had NO services in the city
and so for those who stayed it was rough going for about four days. FEMA was slow to respond also. And please, everyone, if you
leave take your pets. Some of the stories I am hearing about pets that were left behind are so sad. It makes me so mad.
I think will be a major cane when she hits with the way this season is going so be prepared now just incase.
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Isn't LBAR pretty unreliable??(new ).... Lets hope so for Pinellas County 
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
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I'm looking at the 18Z model, which, along with the WV imagery has a truly frightening scenario appearing to be possible.
Now follow this one along folks, because I don't think I'm completely off-base with it.
The WV imagery clearly shows the two low-pressure centers - the foci of the trough(s) involved - over Alaska and just east of southern California. These two features are moving at a decent clip towards the east, with the Alaskan feature, as is the usual for such things, diving south and the other moving slight north of east.
I do not see these combining as some of the models suggest - rather, I see an amplification effect rather than a combinatorial one setting itself up. For them to combine one must basically "run over" the other, with the stronger being the one who does the running over (the Alaskan). It looks to me like the southern feature is going to get here first, before it gets overtaken though. This is consistent with what happens frequently this time of year - you get a first impulse that drives a trough towards the gulf, and a second impulse of energy rides "shotgun" and forces it further south.
In addition the WV loop clearly shows the high near the BOC that has been suppressing northward and west motion backing off, as predicted.
The appears to think that gets picked up by a frontal boundary that is approximately N-S off the MS/LA coast by the 23rd, and that the weakness in front of that is what drives the storm to the north and east.
However, the doesn't "see" the obvious low over the NV/CA border right now, looking at this model run. So....
If we get the "impulse" model, then the storm should run somewhat more north of the predicted track. This puts it in closer to Tampa than Sarasota. What's potentially ugly about this scenario, however, is that it will likely exit closer to Jacksonville and ride up the coast - and if the intensity forecast is to be believed, the shows (weak) Cat 3 windfields (to the east of center, natch) off Long Island at 00Z 24 October, with a 976 mb central pressure and a wild-looking hybrid system off the east coast.
Plausible? Maybe. Much worse though if its about 75nm west of the forecast position.... and if that combination of troughs does not happen, but we get the "impulse" scenario instead, I'd expect a somewhat left and northward shift..... which could set that up. Given the pounding from the weather that this part of the nation has taken over the last week, a strong tropical system off the NE coast is exactly what they don't need come early next week.
The bad news is the forward motion - this sucker is going to be really hauling butt once it gets picked up, so there will not be a lot of warning in this sort of situation, and a few degrees of error in the turn - or a few hours of error in the timing - could make the difference in terms of endpoint as well.
This one bears watching folks - that same model shows a small area of Cat 4 winds (not sure I believe that!) on the east coast just as the storm is about to exit back over water. Certainly, a 6-hour transit time over the peninsula looks plausible.... quick - too quick for it to lose much definition and strength in the process.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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How about a link there pal......got one to that colorado site??
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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CMS
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2
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Quote:
Random,
You make a very valid and correct statement about my posts. I guess I need just a little more to back it up. But here is my point, what if the comes back with an update that says wind's have increased to over 130 MPH. do we as hobbyist's tell the that what proof do you have when they said otherwise that this would occur. That is why it's called an open discussion. I will rest and get back to the storm itself. If I offended anyone on this forum, well, please accept my sicere apologies.
I find this a very interesting issue. Certainly wild "no science" predictions from some nut case peering into a cyrstal ball don't belong on this forum. But some of us use long range models, research previous paths of October storms, looks at water temps and can come up with great forecast like Force 2005 did in this case. I'm better with Cape Verdes storms and accurately determined Isabel's landfall within 50 miles, 8 days out. I guess it's hard for a moderator to decide the basis for these predictions, but maybe the rule could be relaxed if the person posting a prediction adds a little background info into how and why (ie science) he's coming up with the forecast.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Does anyone have a link to those spaghetti models from colorado state??? Supposedly they are up-to-date and moreso than the 18Z runs i looked at a bit ago.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Unfortunatly, I don't know how to post a link otherwise I would have... Can someone please post a link to the Colorado State Spaghetti models.. Thanks 
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