NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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this storm just started moving decently this morning. the models havent had a chance to get a hold of it yet and really wont until the oz runs tonight i think. after that, tomorrow we will have a better idea what is gonna happen and even then nothin is set in stone
peace
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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the young weatherman
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Toronto, ON, Canada
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Quote:
Quote:
Random,
You make a very valid and correct statement about my posts. I guess I need just a little more to back it up. But here is my point, what if the comes back with an update that says wind's have increased to over 130 MPH. do we as hobbyist's tell the that what proof do you have when they said otherwise that this would occur. That is why it's called an open discussion. I will rest and get back to the storm itself. If I offended anyone on this forum, well, please accept my sicere apologies.
I find this a very interesting issue. Certainly wild "no science" predictions from some nut case peering into a cyrstal ball don't belong on this forum. But some of us use long range models, research previous paths of October storms, looks at water temps and can come up with great forecast like Force 2005 did in this case. I'm better with Cape Verdes storms and accurately determined Isabel's landfall within 50 miles, 8 days out. I guess it's hard for a moderator to decide the basis for these predictions, but maybe the rule could be relaxed if the person posting a prediction adds a little background info into how and why (ie science) he's coming up with the forecast.
Most people here I believe,forecast with enough info to support there forecast. I will say that person is a nut case if they say that will suddenly vanish the next few hours. any forecaster from a Cat 1 hurricane to Cat 5 hurricane is good for now if they have good proof
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Bow down to the The youngest Meoteorologist on Earth!!!!!!! MauHaHa!
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Thanks Pam 
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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I still believe things will be clearer late tonight and tomorrow morning when I assume, the new NOAA G-IV sampling will be in the model mix.
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Jara
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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She is really looking good. Always amazes me...to watch these storms develop. And haven't we seen some develop this season!
Wilma seems to really be growing.
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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I have a timing question on the models. Want to make sure I understand this correctly.
The time for the models is in military terms, i.e. 1800 = 6 p.m., and is bound to Zulu, or GMT time. GMT is 4 hours ahead of those of us on the East Coast of the U.S. So, for example, as I write this it is 9:18 p.m. here and therefore 1:18 a.m. at GMT, i.e. 0118 Zulu.
So, an 1800 Zulu run is 6 p.m. there, meaning 2 p.m. here. Ergo, if I look at an 1800 Zulu run right now at about 9 p.m EST., its seven hours old and does not include anything that happened in the last seven hours in terms of movement or recon data.
Have I got it right or am I way off? Any help getting me corrected would be much appreciated.
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
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I know it's just a jog but that last shot on the IR loop looks south of west to me.
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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yeah, I just saw that too
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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probably some sideways rain on and off, slight gusts, and humid conditions. I would imagine it all depends on the intensity and size of the storm. I think pretty much all the models are in agreement that it will exit into the Atlantic rather than going up the 1-4 corrider. If it went up the corrider so to speak it would have the same effects as Charlie did last year if you were here then.
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the young weatherman
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Toronto, ON, Canada
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We will see what really happens as the storm moves on, we'll see  
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Bow down to the The youngest Meoteorologist on Earth!!!!!!! MauHaHa!
You wanna see my lastest forecast for severe weather?
CLick Here
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Does anyone have a link to those spaghetti models from colorado state??? Supposedly they are up-to-date and moreso than the 18Z runs i looked at a bit ago.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/late1.png
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I would agree, I have been seeing a straight west movement. Also, does anyone see that compared to 9-12 hours ago that the ridge is backing off to the west? Timing being everything, if it pulls back enough without the jet dipping could just go west? Any agreement at all out there.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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You are correct. The 18Z model run is 2PM EDT.
Not exactly a current run..but the latest run.
I just checked the site and the Model out to 120 hours won't be out for another 3 hours, at 0420Z.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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000
URNT12 KNHC 182328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:09:50Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1037 m
D. 45 kt
E. 178 deg 049 nm
F. 257 deg 080 kt
G. 167 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 18 C/ 1518 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A OB 21
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Quote:
She is really looking good. Always amazes me...to watch these storms develop. And haven't we seen some develop this season!
Wilma seems to really be growing.
they grow up soo fast dont they? you blink your eyes and their gone. lol just a little humor. sounds like a mother or grandmother referring to her children. .
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Quote:
You are correct. The 18Z model run is 2PM EDT.
Not exactly a current run..but the latest run.
I just checked the site and the Model out to 120 hours won't be out for another 3 hours, at 0420Z.
Thanks for the reply and the info. Out of curiosity, why so long between runs?
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Wilma is rapidly intensifying tonight, not unlike that seen with last year. After my previous post, I took a look at some of the microwave imagery -- the infrared imagery implies that the actual core of the system is much larger than in actuality. The microwave data further confirms the tight inner-core structure of , something that both lends itself to rapid intensification and rapid weakening. The eyewall is likely relatively stable right now, lending itself to another 12hr or so of strengthening. The 12Z prediction of a 932mb central pressure at 12Z Wednesday is turning out to not be that far off; if anything, right now I think it might be a tad conservative.
It is important to emphasize two things: one, I do not anticipate this storm becoming as strong as or , though the possibility is there. I do anticipate it to become a category 4 hurricane, potentially by the 11a advisory tomorrow or sooner. Two, I do not anticipate this storm being nearly this strong at landfall in Florida. More like, we're looking at somewhere near the intensity of , or about 125mph, at landfall. Increasing shear will have a greater impact upon this type of storm than it would normally, particularly for an accelerating one like this one is projected to be.
Interests in the NE US should watch this one too. While it is projected to head into the Atlantic and pass between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda, some of the models are suggesting that the storm may turn back more toward the north and phase with the upper-level pattern, resulting in a very, very intense area of low pressure somewhere between the northeast US and Canadian Maritimes. The latest projection shows 952mb over Caribou in about a week...probably on the high end, but for a transitioning storm and the intensity of the projected trough, not out of the realm of possibility. For now, just something to watch; notably, the is much weaker and further east with this scenario.
Summary -- cat 4 sometime tomorrow, cat 3 at landfall (NHC path looks good from this end, maybe a touch further north), potential for a significant cyclone in about a week's time.
More later.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I agree. I want to see the 0Z runs that contain the most recent recon data. The storm enviroment changed since the last good data dump. Personal feeling is that there is sometimes a bias in the to be a little overly agressive on fronts in October. Going to be interesting to see what comes out. I am not sure there will be a shift, however. Have to be aware of what a strong storm does this time of year.
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Jim
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thank you, Genesis. You explained exactly what I was trying to show with those two features in the western part of the U.S. I do not believe, at this time, that there is any possible way for these two features to meet and combine, which would keep further south. I just read the NWS Ruskin update and they mention these two features + some others, and they are backing off on calling this a Southern Florida event right now because there are too many ifs.
I don't believe the models have picked up on this yet, either. Denis Phillips is an Accuweather forecaster and he was the first one to point out this new feature in the Gulf of Alaska. Which would probably explain why Accuweather.com has making landfall a little further north than the track is right now.
Thanks for taking the time to explain this ... because it will be a significant player in who gets what.
Colleen
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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