crpeavley
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 26
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It is also possible that these changes will be relfected with the 00Z runs when they take in the data from the NOAA Jet. I am still trying to get some meteoroligical opinion on this.
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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Does anyone know where I can find the recon schedule for ?
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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Thanks, its tough trying to fill in the gaps of whats been happening when I come back from school!
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is tasked with a 05Z (1AM EDT) fix tonight. The second plane is enroute at this time and is over the FL Peninsula. They should be over the GOM in the next 30 minutes.
Roughly around 3 hours before a new update on the pressure and winds.
Edited by danielw (Tue Oct 18 2005 09:45 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Lawgator, most of the global models take 5-6 hours to run to their completion, which is why they are only run every 6 hours and why the data is always somewhat delayed from the initialization time.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Colleen - I am glad you elaborated and wish you would have mentioned Accuweather's track earlier...i saw that too and figured they were going along with their own mets and not the . So thats what you meant when you said a shift in the models...it looks as though Accuweather is following the seeing that that model is pretty close to their projected path. I am confused though...if the two systems DO combine, then will move further south? Or if they DONT combine, will move further south?
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Clark, do you think that will maintain its current its tight inner-core structure throughout its lifetime? The models seem to suggest that the size of the storm will increase as it gets near the Gulf of Mexico. I'm not sure what to expect myself... I wouldn't be surprised if it reinvents itself as a larger, less tightly wound system after the current tiny inner core inevitably breaks down at some point.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Im pretty sure she meant if they dont combine it will pull further north. Accuweather doesnt think they will combine.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Clark - i was wondering the same thing and also, get this. The run 18Z shows a higher wind speed once over the Fla peninsula than it does just before landfall in Lee County. I think the knots are 109 prior to landfall and then the model shows 121 when is crossing the state. That's weird!
Please feel free to check my numbers they may not be exact, but i do know that the wind speed was less while still over water and more once the eyewall was totally over land.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Examples of how the differences in the models.
Excerpts from the:
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
137 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 (edited~danielw)
VALID OCT 18/1200 UTC THRU OCT 22/0000 UTC
...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
......HRCN ...
THE 12Z AND UKMET SOLNS OVERALL SHOW BETTER CONTINUITY AND HAVE MORE SIMILAR TRACKS WITH THRU DAY 3. BOTH OF THESE MDLS SHOW TRACKING OFF THE WRN TIP OF CUBA AND INTO THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE DAY 3.
THE 00Z HI-RES IS NOT TOO DIFF BUT
IS A LITTLE SLOWER. THE 12Z SOLN IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z MDL CONSENSUS BUT SHOWS A RATHER SIMILAR TRACK THRU THE SAME TIME PD OTHERWISE.
THE IS THE BIGGEST OUTLIER ONCE AGAIN WITH A TRACK WELL TO THE LEFT AND MUCH SLOWER THAN THE 12Z MDL CONSENSUS.
PLS SEE LATEST FCST DISC FOR ADDITIONAL TRACK INFORMATION AND
GUIDANCE.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I noticed that about the , however the Cat 4 winds are off the east coast of FL, not over FL. It could be the result of the inner core breaking down...though it's strange. It then maintains itself as a strong assymetrical storm heading up the east coast.
I suspect we'll get better guidence as the storm gets closer to landfall.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Sorry about that! This is what Denis Phillips said tonight:
1) If the area near the Gulf of Alaska and the area near the TX/NM border combine, then that scenario will keep further south, because it would push her further south before she could make that turn.
2) If they do NOT combine, will come further north before making the NE turn, in which case, you may be looking at a landfall a little closer (not in) to TB than the track is at right now.
That's why I think the models will move a little further north than they are right now. I just cannot see how they can catch up with each other. Today was the first time I even heard about the Gulf of Alaska feature.
Sorry for the confusion...sometimes I just get caught up and don't exactly explain everything in writing that's in my head. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
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Depends on how they "combine".
Two things can happen, basically....
The two lows could "merge", forming a much stronger single impulse of energy. This is the scenario that most of the global models seem to be favoring, and it would tend to drive the storm further east, thereby leading to a more southerly impact point and, once it has exited from the peninsula, reduce the risk of a "part II" event in the Northeast US.
I see this as rather unlikely, just from the relative motions of the two features, the WV imagery, and the upper level atmospheric support. I won't call it "impossible", but I'm not buying it, particularly since some of the models, most notably the 18Z , completely miss the southern feature that is obviously present at this time!
What I see as more likely is an "amplification" scenario, where the first trough gets here and sets up roughly at the MS/AL border and then the second amplifies and drives it further south and eastward, possibly even to the extent of inverting it somewhat. This would tend to promote more of a poleward as opposed to eastward motion, as there would be a more poleward "tilt" to the trough axis.
That scenario would tend to run the storm more of a NNE track than NE or ENE - that is, a more northward impact point.
SMALL changes in heading with a storm paralleling the coast make for big differences in exactly where it goes in, as we saw last year with Charlie.......
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
I think the knots are 109 prior to landfall and then the model shows 121 when is crossing the state. That's weird!
I'm not a MET, but I would think that the wind speed increase you are seeing could possibly be due to a pressure gradient interaction with the cold front in the area.
That could change some of the impacts from the wind.
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
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So...Does anybody know how fast the trough is moving?? What about the Low in the Gulf of Alaska?? Now I know that systems speed up and slow down, but wouldn't knowing the speeds of the two answer alot of questions??
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Matt
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Just an interesting tidbit I noticed: 's prejected landfall point (line, not cone) is almost exactly the same as where left Florida:
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/GifArchive/atl2005.gif
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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Last year and Jeannie hit almost in the exact same spot (3 weeks apart). I think it was like 10 miles difference but the effects were the same.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here's a late update to the situation from NWS Tampa,FL.
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
910 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 (edited~danielw)
AS FOR ...SHE`S UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS PREDICTED...
AND SPINNING SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN.
MOST RECENT SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FAVORING THE WORST IMPACTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...IT`S FAR TOO SOON FOR ANYONE TO
LET THEIR GUARD DOWN GIVEN THAT THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF THE "PLAYERS" IN THIS EVENT...UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEYOND...IS STILL TO COME. SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE MOST IMPACT WILL BE EXPERIENCED WHEN APPROACHES. STAY TUNED
emphasis added~danielw
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDTBW&max=51
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Conditions at Buoy 42057, incredible how they have gone downhill throughout the day. Water temps @ 85.1
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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