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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #58719 - Tue Oct 18 2005 02:37 PM

As a person with hotel management experience...it is VITAL that you make reservations directly with the hotel. Remember that many hotels are not owned by the chain and many are not even interfaced (especially in smaller cities/towns) to the main reservations system. Hotels routinely overbook due to cxl rates...it is a true art to actually get a "full house"

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: wilma on the move [Re: HanKFranK]
      #58720 - Tue Oct 18 2005 02:38 PM

HankFrank...
So in Laymens terms you see the highest probability from Crystal River south to Sarasota/Naples?
Thanks
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL

highest prob venice to fort myers, just my reckoning. crystal river is the northernmost point of the window. chokoloskee down the coast from naples is the southernmost. don't think keys or big bend with this one... right through the middle. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 03:14 PM)


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sprghill
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Loc: Lake County, FL
Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #58721 - Tue Oct 18 2005 02:39 PM

what are the chances of Wilma comming to tampa,and when could we expect to feel the effects

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength [Re: WeatherNut]
      #58722 - Tue Oct 18 2005 02:40 PM

Well what I'm saying is that starting in the wee hours of the morning, NHC started priming the pump (getting the word out) for potential for a major hurricane at landfall. It's just what they did with Katrina and Rita. That's a different ballpark than saying Wilma could get up to a Cat 3 while in the Caribbean.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Kattbyrde
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Re: wilma on the move [Re: HanKFranK]
      #58723 - Tue Oct 18 2005 02:43 PM

I understand it is way too early to pinpoint a landfall, but what is everyone's opinion on how it will cross the peninsula. Are you all thinking it's a straight east path, or more like Charley in that it will come up through the state in more of a east-north-east or north-east motion? :?:

Sorry, meant up through the state, not straight.

Edited by Kattbyrde (Tue Oct 18 2005 02:44 PM)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: wilma on the move [Re: HanKFranK]
      #58724 - Tue Oct 18 2005 02:44 PM

As usual, great post. Wilma looks better every hour.

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Westward motion more than NW? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #58725 - Tue Oct 18 2005 02:46 PM

I know that the models are now shifting southward on the FL Peninsula and I am fine with that as I am in Central Florida. Since NOAA is sending the Gulfstream out on a sampling mission today and that data will be added to the models, it is likely that a more reliable output will be forthcoming tonight and into the morning so I think I will hold my judgement on where Wilma might be going until then, that is if it is okay with Ralph?!

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength [Re: Margie]
      #58726 - Tue Oct 18 2005 02:46 PM

I agree with you there...I am trying to find information to apply to these thresholds...shear, SST's, previous intensity all are within parameters...have not calculated Max Potential, and dont know where to find the relative humidity (I would think its in the recon somewhere)...any thoughts from anyone on those last 2?

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: wilma on the move [Re: Kattbyrde]
      #58727 - Tue Oct 18 2005 02:48 PM

It appears likely that Wilma would take a NE or ENE track across the peninsula if in fact it heads that direction.

Looks like a plane will be in there in about an hour or so, which is good because there seems to have been a hiccup in available satellite imagery (I can't find anything that is less than 90 minutes old).


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Kattbyrde
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Re: wilma on the move [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #58728 - Tue Oct 18 2005 02:50 PM

Thanks for your input. I'm in Central Florida so a Northeast direction could have an impact.
Thanks again.


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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: wilma on the move [Re: Kattbyrde]
      #58729 - Tue Oct 18 2005 02:53 PM

Remember - this has potential to be a large (diameter) system. Don't just look at the line. That cannot be stressed enough!!!

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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: wilma on the move [Re: HanKFranK]
      #58730 - Tue Oct 18 2005 02:58 PM

Frank, seems like Wilma is indeed on the move.... but virtually due West. More than a wobble. What say ye?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html


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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
Re: wilma on the move [Re: lawgator]
      #58731 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:02 PM

It does look like it's going due west. Any chance this thing just plows into the Yucatan and weakens, eliminating it as a threat to SWFL?

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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #58732 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:03 PM

Well, I'm (insert any explitive here) annoyed! Wouldn't ya know...just went to Costco on Sunday and dropped a small fortune on meat/chicken/steaks/chops and such! How long does dry ice keep in a freezer??? Anywho...SFWD is now in "increased readiness" mode...what does that translate into? I'm keepin a close eye (no pun intended) on Wilma. SFWD is not going to get caught with their pants down as they did back for Georges. They've got a great sat image of her that the last frame is only about 1/2 hr old...movie format. She's looking impressive..might be my uneducated eye but, she seems to be trying/succeeding to fill in on her NW quad. www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/wcaribvismovie.html

I don't care (just as a matter of speech) where she's going...all of FL, central on south from all the way across from the GOM to the Atlantic should be preparing, regardless of 1,2 or 3 (I'm going with some others on the 3 thinking) she's going to be big (bigger than she is now) windfield wise and she's going to knock out power and such.

HankFrank - Your making me nervous...unusual for you to make such bold statements Not looking good for somewhere in FL or the Northeast...just what they don't need...more rain. What's with the "breadcrumb" (to quote another poster) NHC's dropping out with the intensity? What's going on that they seem to think the shear is not going to be as much of factor that they had originally anticipated?


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma [Re: native]
      #58733 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:06 PM

OK - - starting to get concerned here in Cent FLA - - does anyone have a link to the swfwmd spaghetti plot??

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma [Re: native]
      #58734 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:09 PM

Everyone should just be patient and wait for at least the 00Z runs to come in...NOAA has a plane going out there and that data will go into the models so we can have a better definition of maybe where its going to go. It will change the models or just give us more confidence. Anyways again its 4 days away still,,,,by later Weds or Thurs,, we can pinpoint where ,, if anywhere,, landfall might happen.,.,Cedar Key- brushing south of the Keys.....we dont know yet for another day or 2. We can start making good guess after the 0Z runs tonight.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: wilma on the move [Re: evergladesangler]
      #58735 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:09 PM

Most of the recent models show a short-term movement to the W or WNW, but still indicate the system will turn into the Gulf at some point and only one of the "usual suspects" (GFDL) brings the center near the Yucutan, with the others showing recurvature further east.

Looks like they are doing some satellite manuevers with GOES-12, but some imagery should be available again this atternoon with normal operations resuming tonight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/SPBULL/MSG2902234.01.txt


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: wilma on the move [Re: evergladesangler]
      #58736 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:10 PM

She's been forecasted to move west some before heading north then making that right hand turn...I believe some of the early modeling was even calling for further into Yucatan before the hard right into Fl.

History shows the majority of storms that form there this time of year do go into Fl...a half dozen or so have gone to mexico though so it isn't far-fetched that it could happen.

Tomorrow & Thurs will give a much better idea although some would say short notice...hence the continuation of the Bear watch for the Fl west coast.


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma [Re: Wingman51]
      #58737 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:12 PM

Wingman - Didn't know that SFWMD had the spaghetti map but here's the one from the Sun-Sentinel...I find that their particular site updates its information the fastest:

weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: wilma on the move [Re: twizted sizter]
      #58738 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:13 PM

Well..after much thought, I have decided to stay put this weekend at home. I was suppose to go to Niceville to get pictures taken and then drive home on Saturday, but I think my place is at home. Not sure where exactly she will go but, as someone mentioned earlier - depending on the size - even if she doesn't come over me, I may still get the affects.

Is there anything out there that might slow her down weaken her a bit? The waters still appear to be pretty warm out in the GOM. Just wondering.


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