ralphfl
Weather Master
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I know that the models are now shifting southward on the FL Peninsula and I am fine with that as I am in Central Florida. Since NOAA is sending the Gulfstream out on a sampling mission today and that data will be added to the models, it is likely that a more reliable output will be forthcoming tonight and into the morning so I think I will hold my judgement on where might be going until then, that is if it is okay with Ralph?! 
Not nessasary to include me in your posts when we got people on here yesterday talking and joking about how this storm is there fault etc etc etc...I really don't care anymore what anyone says is there best guess since many on here think they know more then what the models think ill just not respond anymore.
When we got people giving out forcasts as if they are the its a shame as all it does is lead to panic on some peoples part.So people got there ideas and THAT IS ALL IT IS a idea and when they are wrong its ok as its not there job.Well it is the 'S job so you guys play ytour im a Met and ill just listen to them thanks.
well, part of the forum's purpose is to allow people to discuss what's going to happen.. that can involve a little forecasting if sound meteorological reasoning is used. you don't have to like anybody's ideas, but if properly supported they are welcome on the forum. no one is forcing you to listen to them, and no amount of complaining on your part is going to change that. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 07:31 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Wingman - Didn't know that had the spaghetti map but here's the one from the Sun-Sentinel...I find that their particular site updates its information the fastest:
weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
That's wunderground. Here's the direct link:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
Only UKMET has it going over the warmest pools of water. The 11am forecast track points are pretty close to the UKMET, but it looks like there will be another change with the 5pm.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Colleen A.
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If you read the 11am disco, they talk about the shear issue. Margie is correct...they are trying to prepare us for what I think will be a major hurricane at landfall. I can't explain it as well as they can, so that's why I'm directing you there.
Scott....almost every channel I've watched...including ...has pointed out that the system in CA has finally begun to move, which is *helping* with 's forward movement. It may not be the only thing, but it's one of the reasons it is beginning to move.
HankFrank...your Dad will be in my neck of the woods...I live in Lakeland. If it hits south of us, it will be ugly. 
[
i]dad grew up in bartow. i'm down there every so often.. and have taken note of you and some of the other forumers who call polk home, skeet and such. never have figured out which town guppie is from, though. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 07:34 PM)
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Kattbyrde
Verified CFHC User
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Thanks. I've lived in Florida all my life (No, I'm not going to tell you how long that is) 
So I've been through enough hurricanes to know that you can't just look at the line and even if you do, the line changes and hurricanes seem to have a mind of their own. My husband says, especially the females!
But, back on topic, from reading everyone's comments, I am confused with the models that keep moving further south. What is it that they think will keep her more to the south, as opposed to more north, say, the Tampa area?
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FlaMommy
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well this is what ive been reading today....and im not quite comfortable with it....are there any suggestions as this is what its doing or is he just hyping it up....also...what models are the most accurate?...thansk becky
Dick Fletcher,Tampa Bay's 10 News Chief Meteorologist:
"It's cooler than it was this summer but there is still enough oceanic heat there to support a major hurricane."
The last major storm to hit Tampa was in October 1921 .Wilma is set to take almost the exact same path. Will mean the end to our lucky streak? Watt Allen says after so many years untouched eventually the luck has to run out.
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
Edited by FlaMommy (Tue Oct 18 2005 07:22 PM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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well this is what ive been reading today....and im not quite comfortable with it....are there any suggestions as this is what its doing or is he just hyping it up....also...what models are the most accurate?...thansk becky
Dick Fletcher,Tampa Bay's 10 News Chief Meteorologist:
"It's cooler than it was this summer but there is still enough oceanic heat there to support a major hurricane."
The last major storm to hit Tampa was in October 1921 .Wilma is set to take almost the exact same path. Will mean the end to our lucky streak? Watt Allen says after so many years untouched eventually the luck has to run out.
Ok where do you see that is set to take that path to Tampa? i see no models or the right now pointing there so why?
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Thunderbird12
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Buoy 42057 at 17.6 N, 80.8 W (NE quadrant) reported a maximum 1-minute wind speed of 49 knots last hour, with wave heights up to 18 feet. The pressure at the station as of 3 ET was 999 mb.
Just a note of caution for everyone else -- while the NDBC does have the supplemental measurements on their website for that buoy, as noted above, that isn't the case for all buoys. Generally, their wind measurements are 8-min averages for buoys and 3-min averages for coastal stations. Just a heads-up for those who may use the data at later times. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Tue Oct 18 2005 08:33 PM)
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FlaMommy
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ralph it was on the tampa bay 10s website....
http://tampabay10.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=20077
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Colleen A.
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Basically, it's a whole lot of weather info that recon gets + troughs, lows, fronts, ridges, etc., that the models put in.
I think the best thing to do is look at the "cone" and try to figure out the middle...not the line...but the middle. The next model runs will be important because I think they will finally have some concrete information to put in there.
However, with a storm as big as is...and I think it's going to get bigger....the TS force winds extend out 120 miles (60 miles on either side of the eye). That's a lot of real estate for the size of the state of Florida, that's for sure.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ralphfl
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Also those that think more of a west movement will bring it more north in florida that is not true it will delay it coming to florida which in turn will move it more south.Its all about the timing.The longer it stays down there the more chance it has to turn NE early.
that's essentially right... a faster approach would bring the storm across florida at more of an oblique angle. slower would imply a more direct crossing at a lower latitude. either solution could spell trouble for eastern new england/canada, dependent on whether the storm is trying to phase in ahead of that upper low forecast near the great lakes. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 07:40 PM)
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Brad in Miami
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I hadn't looked at the satellite images in a while, so maybe this is old news...but the last couple of visible images suggest an eye forming or becoming better defined (perhaps the latter because I think recon at one point noted the existence of ragged eye) at around 16.7/80.9. Another 2-3 images should clarify whether this is actually an eye or merely an artefact of the images.
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native
Weather Guru
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As all the Met/Mods and lots of here will tell you...DON'T DEPEND TOO MUCH ON THE MODELS! While they are great for giving you a general idea, they are not exact and often change from one run to the next. is the BEST source for information you need to help make any decisions. has done a bang up job this crazy season and there is absolutely no reason NOT to listen to them above all else. Lots of what is posted here (myself included at times) is simply conjecture we come up with with what limited knowledge/training we have (with the exception of the METS ofcourse)
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Colleen A.
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I don't think he said it was going to be a Tampa Bay storm, Ralph.
Read the post again.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Thunderbird12
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Some models were earlier suggesting that would track towards the Tampa area, which is probably what Dick Fletcher was talking about. It is way too early to say at this time where the storm is going and Tampa certainly can't be ruled out. Tampa is well within the error cone given by , so it is not accurate to say that is not "pointing" there. The best that can be said now is that the current model consensus favors a track south of Tampa. Nobody on the Florida peninsula should be panicking, but nobody should be letting their guard down either. This is still 4-5 days away from landfall if it occurs, so just keep an eye on things and have a plan ready to go.
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StormHound
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Ralph, not to mention that the GDFL was almost directly pointed at Tampa earlier, and is only a bit further south now.
What I really want to see is some of those cool graphics with the wind speed, so we can see how large an area the hurricane and tropical storm force winds will be. I know its probably too early since has fully developed yet.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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ralphfl
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the GDFL moved about 100 miles south....Now it can move back but the idea of anyone saying what part of Florida will get hit if any is pure conjecture.
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laxpimpj
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Quick question if anyone can help me out...
If the storm follows the path that is currently being predicted (ie crossing somewhere over lake okachobee) what kind of damage could be expected in Coral Gables (Miami)?
Just a college student trying to see if there is a chance of no class on monday....! 
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lawgator
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Ralph, not to mention that the GDFL was almost directly pointed at Tampa earlier, and is only a bit further south now.
What I really want to see is some of those cool graphics with the wind speed, so we can see how large an area the hurricane and tropical storm force winds will be. I know its probably too early since has fully developed yet.
Here's a link to spaghetti models from this site: http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24
I still say its going so much more West than forecast earlier that we are going to see some big track changes later tonight.
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FlaMommy
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you know i totally understand that and all but basically what i was tryign to say is this is the reason why some people are getting freaked out and panicking(sp?)...i wasnt trying to get an argument started or anything was just pointing out the fact that its being said....personally if i wasnt a member of this site id be packing my sh*t and getting out of here before she got here...
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Dick Fletcher,Tampa Bay's 10 News Chief Meteorologist:
"It's cooler than it was this summer but there is still enough oceanic heat there to support a major hurricane."
Well...where? An unqualified statement like that doesn't mean much taken out of context.
Right now there are only a few specific places with warm deep water to support heavy duty intensification, and of course other factors are involved, and if goes there (which is getting more questionable as the afternoon wears on, which I'm really sorry about seeing as how I was the one who brought the intensity issue to the forefront), then she can probably only go downhill from there, even travelling at a fast speed.
So, roughly speaking, the max intensity at landfall is going to be based on how far intensifies before leaving the area N of Cuba for points east. If she's a monster, then there'a a chance of a major hurricane at landfall on the FL peninsula. If she's a Cat 3, then probably a Cat 2 at landfall.
Also of note -- the 5am and 8am advis/disc talk about the chance for to become an "intense" hurricane. However the 11am and 2pm talk about the chance for to become a "major" hurricane, and no longer mention the word intense. Someone please decode the lingo for me. What are they saying? Is this an indication that won't get as strong as they thought at 5am (it would seem so), or vice versa?
Generally the will use intense and major interchangeably. With more confidence in it becoming a major hurricane now, they will explicitly use that terminology instead of intense, which is sort of an oxymoron when it comes to hurricanes anyway -- they are all intense. Just my thoughts. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Tue Oct 18 2005 08:35 PM)
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