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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Wilma, Category 5 and Breaking Records
      #59038 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:01 AM

8:00 AM EDT UPDATE
Wilma's pressure has been confirmed as 882, making it the all time lowest surface pressure recorded in the Atlantic basin.



For reference, Hurricane Gilbert from 1988 was the previous Atlantic record holder at 888 mb.

The world record is 869.96 millibars from Typhoon Tip in the western Pacific Ocean.

It is important to note, that it is expected to weaken before it approaches Florida, to a category 2 or 3 system. But everyone in the cone must pay attention to the system and not focus too much on the line.

Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.

5:30 AM EDT UPDATE
Air Force Recon measured an uncalibrated central pressure of 884 millibars at 08Z ( 4AM EDT ).
Wilma currently has winds of 175mph and a dropsonde pressure of 884mb.
Although this pressure is uncalibrated, the Meteorologist onboard the aircraft also measured an extrapolated 881mb pressure.
Currently, Wilma holds the unofficial All Time Lowest Atlantic Hurricane Minimum Central Pressure. We will have to wait and see if the calibration is correct.


3:15 AM UPDATE
The last recon pass measured a central pressure at 892 Mb, which is equivalent to the lowest pressure recorded in the Labor Day Hurricane. Wilma is now very near the lowest pressure threshold known for Atlantic Hurricanes. Winds are also up to 175 MPH, making it a Category 5 hurricane... the unprecedented third of the season. -HF

Folks, we have a new record for rapid intensification of a hurricane. Wilma has continued to deepen explosively this evening and the latest recon measurements show a minimum central pressure of 901mb, making it one of the 5 most intense hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin. Maximum flight level winds on the first pass were measured at 162kt, easily supporting category 5 intensity at the surface. Expect a full adivsory package to follow shortly.

More to come in the overnight hours.



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Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar


Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Wilma

Animated model plot of Wilma
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots

Edited by MikeC (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:48 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Clark]
      #59042 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:06 AM

URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A Wilma OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB


YEP.... AND I THINK SHE WILL KEEP GOING.... i am going with 890mb

like clark said

adv out
1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS 150 MPH WINDS IN Wilma...

REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...16.9 N... 82.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 901 MB.


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Oct 19 2005 01:08 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59048 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:10 AM

incase you don't know

HURRICANE Wilma SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND THE FORECAST
INTENSITY OF Wilma. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 162 KNOTS AT
850 MB AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 901 MB IN A PINHOLE EYE. Wilma IS
NOW A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FIVE TODAY. NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS NECESSARY.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0500Z 16.9N 82.0W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 135 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59049 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:11 AM

What is causing this degree of intensity. What kinds of conditions are present that would cause this? Also how long could this storm hold this intensity? Did it hit a loop current of warm water? Is it being caused by the conditions out of the Northern plains?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59051 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:12 AM

man... poor people are going to wake in a few hours and find out they went to bed with a cane and wake to a monster...... from a cat 2 to i think a cat 5 by 5am... cat 4 right now... but not far from a cat 5

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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superfly
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: New Orleans
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #59052 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:13 AM

Quote:

What is causing this degree of intensity. What kinds of conditions are present that would cause this? Also how long could this storm hold this intensity? Did it hit a loop current of warm water? Is it being caused by the conditions out of the Northern plains?




The western Caribbean heat content is very high this time of year and has been virtually untapped since Emily. Wilma is also in an area of very little upper level shear. The development of such a small pinhole eye (could be the smallest on record) also tightens the winds tremendously. The only inhibiting factor is the dry air in the Gulf but Wilma's moisture envelope is so large that that does not seem to be a big factor at this point.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: superfly]
      #59057 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:17 AM

well.... models haven't changed much in new 00Z runs


http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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BriahH
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59061 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:19 AM

History question: When is the last time there has been a storm this intense in the atlantic basin in october?

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59062 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:20 AM

I'm guessing that this is cat 5 right now, though there is not ay evidence of it from the limited data we have from the plane so far. 162 knots at 850mb corresponds to 130 knots at the surface using the usual 20% reduction. Stronger winds may exist in the NW quadrant and it isn't clear yet whether the 20% reduction is even appropriate in this case.

I mentioned this in the previous thread, but the dropsonde in the NE eyewall measured 943 mb. A 42mb pressure difference between eye and eyewall seems extreme, so there could be a QC issue with the recon pressure, which was extrapolated. On the other hand, the observed winds support a system of that intensity.


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59063 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:21 AM

This year has been NUTS!!! Rita, Katrina, and Wilma, all woman names ending in A and all broke pressure records and all are in the top 5 in all time intensity. ALL IN ONE SEASON! INSANE!

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59064 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:23 AM

What effect will the intensity have on the track of the storm, if any ? Seems like there must be a possible effect.. Wonder what this will do to the models as they all had this storm much weaker and this must also be a player in the environment surrounding this storm. I was always told the stronger the storm, the more abt it was to move polar. Any comments ?

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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superfly
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: New Orleans
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: BriahH]
      #59065 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:24 AM

Quote:

History question: When is the last time there has been a storm this intense in the atlantic basin in october?




Hurricane Mitch reached 180MPH and 905mb on October 26 in 1998.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: SirCane]
      #59066 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:25 AM

WOW...... CHECK THIS OUT!!!!

URNT14 KNHC 190515
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01186 10809 12467 11716 11051
02184 20811 22446 21616 12053
03182 30812 32438 31515 12059
04180 40814 42419 41816 12058
05178 50816 52397 51717 12063
06176 60817 62369 61616 12073
07173 70817 72328 71818 12052
08171 80818 82279 81919 12062
MF169 M0819 MF162
OBS 01 AT 03:54:00Z
OBS 08 AT 04:27:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01166 10820 13941 11212 28043
02164 20822 23980 21210 30035
03163 30824 33007 31010 31048
04161 40827 43032 41010 32050
05160 50828 53049 50707 32046
06158 60830 63065 60808 29042
07156 70832 73070 70808 32046
MF168 M0819 MF140
OBS 01 AT 04:38:00Z
OBS 07 AT 05:05:00Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
AF308 0724A Wilma OB 10
INITIATED CLIMB TO 700MB IN EYE OF HURRICANE FOR SAFETY

She has got to be a cat 5..... VERY DANGEROUS flying sounds like....turbulence must be real bad!!!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
New Category [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59067 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:26 AM

I'm back. I saw the HDOB and thought something was wrong.
The Flt level wind speeds, went from 66kts to 162kts and back to 53kts in less than 10 minutes.
And the radar altimeter was weird too.
1391mtrs to 520meters back to 3020meters
(4562ft to...1750ft and then back to 5594ft.)

That's a bit of a roller coaster ride. This was in a 10 minute period.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: superfly]
      #59068 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:26 AM

The latest supplemental vortex message still hints at an outer wind max, which still points to a looming ERC at some point. The supp vortex message also contained this note:

Edit: Typcially, they can fly at 700 mb without too much of a problem even in really intense storms. Flying at 850mb can get dicey though, when the 850mb height drops to around 1500 feet or less. I take it they weren't expecting that much of a pressure drop.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Oct 19 2005 01:28 AM)


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Hurricane Master
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Wilma Nears Category 5 Intensity [Re: Clark]
      #59070 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:28 AM

WOW, I can't belive that Wilma is almost a 5 after just being a TS just under 24 hous ago, but with this season anythings possible.

--------------------
Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, and Wilma. – 21 folks you don’t want to meet!


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #59072 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:29 AM

Good way to break a new plane in ..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 17
Loc: Fort Myers, Florida
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #59073 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:36 AM

Hello.. I just wanted to get some of your thoughts on being on the north side of this storm at the time of landfall..

Is there still a strong anticipation that the shear will be strong enough that areas north of the eye should not be affected that bad? Will this recent intensification alter that theory at all?

Thx... Eddie - Ft. Myers, FL


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #59074 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:36 AM

since 1900
8 major hurricanes have landfall in the US
6 have struck florida
last one: Yep Opal..... 1995 in panhandle of fla.

i'm guessing you mean during october? -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 19 2005 01:53 AM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59075 - Wed Oct 19 2005 01:37 AM

Another jaw-dropping moment.

No way am I going to bed now.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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