MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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11AM update
Lili has made landfall as a category two storm, after being a strong category four yesterday. This is incredibly interesting, and plenty of studys I'm sure will go into what happened here with Lili. It's also very lucky that it didn't make landfall as a stronger system. God has blessed the folks in Louisiana for the most part. There is damage, no doubt, but not as bad as it could have been.
Hype yesterday was intense, for good reason, it was a big storm, and every inch of movement was being analyzed and even the slightest hint of trouble was extrapolated. Nail biting moments I'm sure for emergency management and folks in weather and at the Hurricane Center.
As for why it weakened suddenly, I am not so sure . It could have been the shear, the water temps, the elongation, or a combination of all the above, perchance sprinkled with a miracle as well. All the best to our friends in Lousiana! You have dodged yet another bullet in two weeks time. I hope the damage that did occur was minimal. Some areas, I'm sure, will have a lot to clean up.
Currently Lili is moving inland, and has dropped to category 1 status, causing some wind damage and rain. It is still moving very rapidly. Hopefully quickly away so cleanup can commence.
Kyle is still around. Say hello!
Original Update
Good morning, some good news to pass along.
Hurricane Lili has experienced a little shear overnight and has been downgraded to a category 3, and is moving west away from the New Orleans area which a few people voiced concerns over last night. However, it still is a major storm and is heading to the Central Louisiana coast.
The eye became ragged and open on the south overnight as the storm got elongated north and south. As it makes landfall today it will still give a farily large storm surge and come with wind damage. As for intensity we'll have to watch it hour by hour.
More to come during the day.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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This is about as intense as it's been yet. This is true Tropical Storm conditions. It's raining sheets and there have been 2 tornado warnings in my Parish (Jefferson) in the last hour. 1 was in Marrero and Avondale (across the river maybe 6-8 miles south) and another one in Jefferson, LA whic is due south of me about a 2 miles or so.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Hang in there Steve, looks like it will be a long day for you, but she has let up just a little. Hopefully making landfall will let some more air out of her tires. Eyewall kinda caved in at some point this morning. be safe and smart on your day off.
Joe in JAX
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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There are a couple of downed limbs on my block and a little flooding in a ponding area on the corner, but it's not that bad. We still haven't lost power which I'm kind of surprised at, but it's all good. As the threat shifts west to Lafayette, here are a couple of links for the next day or two:
http://www.theadvertiser.com/
That's Lafayette's newspaper.
http://www.katc.com/
That's an ABC affiliate out of Lafayette, LA. There are some weather cams out of Lafayette and Eunice, LA.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Just another note. Lili looks like she's gone about as far west as she's gonna go. New Iberia looks to catch the NE wall of the eye, Lafayette will have the center pass right over it. Steve, your prob. in the worse rainband your going to see today. Good luck and hope things get back to normal quickly for you and your family.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Down to Cat2, great news for all of LA!
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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My thoughts and prayers are with you all In Louisana and Mississippi.
Happy it is not as bad as it could have been
Sue
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Londovir--Cudos once again!!!
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Richard
Unregistered
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Northern eyewall now at the coast at the very west end of Vermillion Bay. New Iberia right in the line of fire in the front right eyewall very soon. Best of luck.
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cappycat
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
Loc: Raceland, LA
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We're still here! Last night when we saw that N jog and massive winds, then there was a tornado S of us. We left and went to my fathers house (next door, so not far to go) for the night.
We have lost some trees...one is snapped in half at the middle of the trunk. Last night at about 3AM we could hear a roaring off in the distance towards the S, out in the swamp, then were hit with a pretty big feeder band. We didn't lose electricity though...didn't lose it with Andrew either.
Anyway, we are ok here. So relieved that Lili was not the monster we were all ready for.
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cappycat
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
Loc: Raceland, LA
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Steve, glad you guys are doing ok, too. I am thinking that this afternoon and a nap sound pretty good right about now 
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Steve,
Thanks for the links last nite...I'll check them out in detail this evening...work's a *&%& right now. One of them reminded me of visiting the grandparents in the Glades.
Glad to see you made it through ok. Guess my Avery Island call was pretty close...hope I don't get any hate mail from any hot sauce fans. 
Anyway, be safe, and I'll check in again this evening to make sure all the family from LA has come through ok.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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heheheh. isidore did a pretty good job of busting everybody.. lili has seconded that. not coming in a as a major.. this is no big deal. floyd all over again for most people. goes to show how rare a category four hurricane landfall really is.
HF 1416z03october
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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We're getting sporadic bands coming through with gusts in the 35-40 range. I'm just enjoying the day off. Glad everything's cool with you too Cappy. I'm still thinking there will be some bad weather today as the biggest danger is rainfall under training bands. We've been okay here in Metairie, but I think there has been some localized flooding in St. Tammany Parish (East of here) because they've been under a pretty vicious band for several hours. Good luck over there to everyone in St. Tammany!
Steev
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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MS not having any really serious problems at all... Tide looks to be about 5-6 feet above normal.... Izzy had an 8 foot tidal surge... winds at my house about the same, maybe a little less... 30 - to 40 max gusts...
Water level got about 25 feet from base of sea wall at its highest point ... just got back from the beach... several areas of hwy 90 are under water and traffic rerouted... typical for this high of tides..
Goes to show you how perfect environmental conditions need to be to sustain a strong Cat 4 storm... they are rare indeed... Lili is still going to do quite a bit of damage but boy it could have been catastrophically worst...
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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The sense of relief and deliverance they are probably feeling in south Lousiana must be overwhelming this morning.
Good for them!
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Bill
Unregistered
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Pure and simple folks..how else does aCat 4 /Cat 5 hurricane ina favorable environment go from 145 mph (or more) to 100 mph, in less than 8 hours?
IHS,
Bill
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FlaRebel
Unregistered
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I may be wrong, but I think the water closer to the coast was alot cooler than the water Lili intensified over. I'm not sure what the temps were. I think she also got some shear from the left as well. Okay, one of you gurus, help me out here!
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craig
Unregistered
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Thank Dyno Gel again for decreasing the cat from a 4 to a strong 1 at landfall.Winds 90 making landfall over last 1-2 hours. There is though no evidence yet of sustain winds near 90, only up to 72mph with gusts near that, should be down to 75 or 80 at intermediate advisory.
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Brett
Unregistered
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But I highly doubt prayer was the causal factor here. Shear picked up, dry air became entrained in the circulation, and the SST's cooled as she approached. Also, highly doubtful the 145 mph was ever accurate...was probably more like 120 at the surface, at the most, as evidenced by the readings from the central gulf buoy. A lot of intensity hype with this one....it wasn't her fault, lol.
As for the prayer part, well....the prime being sure must have it in for South Florida then. Either that or no one thought to pray during Andrew...
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