57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Hey Joe, could be wrong but I think they are just trying to say that there could be 2 LLC. The one to the NW of the advisory position is exposed and there also looks to be a mid LLC to the south, trying to work it's way to the surface. In the 5pm discussion they did speak about a possible center reformation to the south. We will have to wait and see which LLC is the dominate, if it is to the N then looks like Kyle will be called stationary again, if it is south we may have hope for some movement.
By the way, How did I get the 3 stars and what does it mean?
Toni 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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He will not go away!!!!!! Dolphins (4-1) still the best football team in Florida, we beat the world champions!!
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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OK, I take it that everyone loves their football  and I can also see that there is a lot of football competition . So with all these 4-1 teams on this board all I am going to say is that it should make for some very interesting football this season.
Kyle is holding his own this morning but his center has become elongated a bit. There is now probabilities up for the Fl East Coast. Until I can really see some movement with Kyle I'm staying neutral with his movement.
The disturbed weather continues to linger in the SW Caribbean. Look at the convection this AM Getting ready to exit the Yucatan and than to the W. Really need to keep watch in this area.
Toni
GO BUCS GO!!! (Don't let me down chucky)
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
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Any one old enough here to remember Curly from the three stooges. When he would get excited about something he would go in circles and say wu wu wu and then finally go off in one direction or another? That is the way Kyle is starting to act....
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
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Making the obligitory football talk, I said (not here) at the start of the season that I would be happy if the Jaguars finished the season above 50%. So right now I'm ecstatic, but the season's far from over. I'm not sure what happened in the two weeks between the pre-season and the regular season, but even in the first game Jacksonville had a whole different level of play than we did in the four throw-away games. Maybe everybody was happy we worked things out with Smith. 
As far as Kyle goes, I'm hoping he stays away from the coast, since I'm only about a mile in-land. He's made so many turns out there, though, that he's dizzy and I don't think he's capable of tracing a straight line. I swear this storm's listening to the weather radio; now that Kyle's heard that he's predicted to go SSW for the next 24 hours he'll try to go NNE just to be preverse (and since he's dizzy he'll stagger off SE).  I guess for now it's just going to be continue to keep an eye on him and the gas tank filled.
Chris
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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kyle is about to start its 19th day of existence.. already an unusually long-lived system. pretty good model consensus starting it south tomorrow and bending westward later on. so far modeling has had a pretty loose handle on kyle.. overpredicted westward movement and recurvature. my thinking goes.. consensus track but very slowly.. some intensification during shear gaps.
other basin features not looking very impressive. deep layer low east of kyle weakening and not organizing, possible frontal hybrid near the tx/la coast next couple of days. still various modeling hinting at central atlantic development, but this has been a nonproductive theme for about a week and there is little overall model agreement.
the idea about an flip lull may be holding some water.. no new development since september 21st.. and about 15-25 days of quiet with typical cycles. however, bastardi's high pressure at hatteras/west caribbean teleconnection is about to switch on.. so its just about time for the october activity to begin in earnest, should this pattern recognition scheme work. there are probably a couple more in the works, at least one, maybe three or four.
HF 0300z08october
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I find it interesting that this forum has become completely silent with a tropical storm off the East coast that looks to POSSIBLY be taking a turn that could increase some threat to the SE US in the next week. I know, I know...we have heard this some tired song several times already with Kyle..but the 11pm discussion hints at the possibility that our long-time lurker might just get into a favorable environment as it heads southwest in the general direction of Florida.
Maybe it's time to start paying a bit closer attention to future advisories....
Lou
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Kyle is about to make the top10 longest lasting cyclone list. If Kyle manages to get underneath the expected ridge than we may see him intensify. The probabilities for Fl. are starting to roll in now. Can't believe it but we may have to keep a serious eye on him.
Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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>>Maybe it's time to start paying a bit closer attention to future advisories.... <<<
The models are becoming a little more agreeable. FL EC seems to be their chioce at the moment, central part the last time I looked. Problem is, even if Kyle makes landfall, what will he be? He's looked so bad, for so long, I think most people just don't see anything there to be worried about. We'll just have to wait to see what, if anything, becomes of him in the next couple of days. Haven't we been saying that for about 2 and a half weeks now?
Joe in JAX
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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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I find it interesting that the Orlando area TV market mets are basically ignoring Kyle, with one exception. They all make mention, but one predicted a swing around the high, staying off shore then NE, another made a modest mention of a small tropical system moving S, while the third did discuss the possibility of Kyle influencing our weather. Usually the hype mode is fully engaged. Hopefully, all the predicters of minor, if any development are correct because I do not think anyone is paying attention. Maybe they are too tired from last month's adventures.
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Well after reading Forcaster Beven's 5 AM discussion I thought that we could finally kiss Kyle goodbye, but I have to say that when I looked at the Sat Loop this AM I was suprised to see that Kyle still has some shape and convection firing. If it comes to fruiton the and the are taking Kyle across central FL and into the GOM (unbelievable, I made a joke some time ago and said that Kyle was just waiting on a ride to the Central GOM like all the others) Any way there is a lot of WHAT IF'S for this to happen and the only WHAT IF we know right now is that Kyle just likes to hang out and is not in any hurry to get anywhere fast. Not too worried about the intensity part just yet, I would like to see a steady movement some where first before I put too much stock in any sure thing with Kyle.
Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
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My guess is that the football schedules have the chambers of Commerce afraid to hype the storm because of the lost tourism dollars if Kyle is a dud. If he approaches Florida as a minimal tropical storm, he will simply chase the beach goers into the local bars and restaurants and no buisness will be lost and maybe more money will be spent than otherwise. They are truly in my opinion betting a high stakes profit on this storm .
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Yeah, Kyle has to be seriously considered for a landfall prospect, and I believe the models (and history tells us) don't handle intensity very well. Kyle will be coming under a strong ridge when he makes the west turn, and these waters near the SE coast and Bahamas are quite warm as they have been undisturbed by tropical systems this year. Current models have him coming in near south/central Florida, prabably just north of Stuart. But it's too early to call. But and (the one's that show Kyle surviving) have him crossing the peninsula into the GOM (GFDL at 50 knots coming into Florida) and maybe intensifying in the GOM. Just a scenario, but probabilities are rising. He could make it in time for the bonfire for the hurricanes/FSU. CHeers! Steve H.
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Whatever is left of Kyle will come across the Florida peninsula. Whether or not it is a thundershower or a TS or Hurricane is still the question. First he must survive the next 24-36 hours, as he looks less than anemic. discussion has UL cutoff low and some ridging in the bahamas. How this all plays together will be interesting They have Kyle off the central Florida coast (250 miles east of Sabastian Inlet) at 50 knots at 72 hours. Much quicker than before. But many things unanswered. Cheers!! Steve H.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Thunder Storm Kyle- I like that  .
At 1 pm his center was out there for all to see, with everything sheared off to the SE. The enviroment in front of him looks like it is begining to change, though, and Florida will see something of him. If he makes it to the gulf, Florida might see him twice  .
I will make no comments on how Thunder Storm Kyle looks; the last time I made fun of how bad a TS looked she turned into a Cat4 and thought about taking the big easy out. I will spare Miami/Jax. Kyle, you look great just the way you are!
Joe in JAX
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Bill
Unregistered
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FYI..btw, C bros, think we could start a Kyle thread?
IHS,
Bill
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This is a post e-mailed by Collier County to their emergency mgt subscription list about noon today (10/8):
Tropical Storm Kyle was all but forgotten since we were following Isidore
and Lili during the past two weeks but this is the 18th day since Kyle
became a tropical sysem. It has been meandering in the vicinity of Bermuda
for the past several days but it is now moving once again. Currently, Kyle
is located approximately 600 miles east of Jacksonville and is moving to the
SSW at 5-6mph. It should begin moving to the WSW and be in the vicinity of
the Northern Bahamas by Friday evening. The long range projections have it
making landfall north of the West Palm Beach area as a tropical storm during
Saturday morning.
At the present time Kyle is in an environment of wind shear that would
retard further development. However, by Wednesday evening it should gain
strength with winds estimated in the 55-60 mile range near the center.
There is still a great deal of uncertainty that Kyle can redevelop but it
has managed to survive far more wind shear during the past two weeks.
If Kyle can maintain its tropical characteristics, Collier County will
experience a wet and windy weekend but it appears at this time that no
evacuations or shelters will be required.
If your plans this weekend include Orlando or Tampa, you may want to
reconsider. We will keep a close eye on Kyle and will provide additional
updates as needed. At any rate we will provide an update around noon time
for the remainder of the week.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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The 12Z puts Kyle right off of Jacksonville in 4 days as a strong TS/weak hurricane.
The 12Z AVN loses Kyle altogether, as does the .
Kyle had no cloud cover at 2PM, but was still moving to the SSW.
?????????
Joe in JAX
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Someone recently was asking when we were going to get some more rain in Florida.... I have a sneaking suspicion that regardless of the intensity, Kyle will cause some rain in the state and who knows, given that it may cross the Gulf stream, very warm water, it may even prove 'interesting' as it intensifies rapidly into a full fledged hurricane.
One of the factors we look for in a tropical wave/storm, is persistance.....I think Kyle has proven it has that attribute....wouldn't be surprised to find it a bit breezy here in Central Florida this weekend....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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kyle still hasnt made a solid case for it's threatening florida.. today the system is sheared and exposed.. though moving south and probably out of the shear. kyle will probably be downgraded to a depression, yet again.. and may become so disorganized that it does turn into that open wave that so many globals have been taking across florida for the weekend. of course, at the other end of the spectrum, it could recover under lighter shear and intensify all the way to the coast..
if kyle makes it as a discrete system for another 24 hours, it will most likely hit the east coast of florida friday or saturday as a tropical storm.
HF 1905z08october
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Actually, the last few frames of Kyle show him trying to get his act together again, as his structure is on the upswing and is trying to pull convection back in. Maybe I spoke too soon Cheers!! Steve H.
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