For Florida Residents - FLHurricane.com

Try to imagine winds of 175mph spinning around a hurricane center that is only 2 miles in diameter. That is what the hurricane hunters encountered earlier this morning on their flight into Hurricane . They also recorded a central pressure of 882mb (26.05 inches) - the lowest pressure every recorded for a hurricane in the Atlantic basin. At 11am, was located halfway between Grand Cayman Island and the northeast coast of Honduras and she was moving slowly to the west northwest in the western Caribbean Sea. is a Category V hurricane (the third one this season) and the 12th hurricane of this record tying season. She is also the 21st named storm of this season and that ties the record that was established 72 years ago in 1933.

Wilma still maintains a 'pinhead' sized eye and hurricane force winds only extend outward about 20 miles from the center, i.e., a 'Charley' type of storm. From a meteorological perspective she is awesome to observe, but at this intensity she is capable of total destruction. It is fortunate that the atmosphere cannot support this type of intensity for long periods of time. will slowly weaken as she continues on a northwest track toward the Yucatan Channel over the next few days. She should pass through the Yucatan Channel Friday morning - still as a major hurricane - and could pass quite close to the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula.

While is moving toward the Yucatan Channel, a cold front will move south and east from the northern Rocky Mountains and begin to turn to the northeast toward the southwest Florida coast shortly after she enters the Gulf of Mexico. should make landfall - perhaps still as a Category III hurricane along the southwest Florida coast late Saturday evening and she will move rapidly northeastward across the peninsula and exit into the Atlantic early Sunday morning. She is expected to maintain hurricane intensity while moving across the state and will probably exit as a strong Category I hurricane. The fast forward speed will mean that wind and weather will rapidly increase and rapidly decline as she moves across the state, and that storm surge at landfall could be in excess of 15 feet.

With impact still days away, the track across Florida is a long way from being firm, however, right now I'd estimate a track from Boca Grande to Vero Beach. While the approaching cold front and upper level trough will be strong, so will and the hurricane will have some influence on the ability of the trough to push southeastward - especially at this time of year. Upper level westerlies across the northern Gulf should restrict the significant storm impacts to the southern half of the peninsula. Note that the latest forecast (19/15Z) from the has adjusted the track across the state a little more to the northwest of their previous forecast. Hurricane force winds are possible from near Tampa south to the Keys on the west coast and from near Cape Canaveral south to the Keys on the east coast Saturday evening into early Sunday morning - but a more specific definition of the impact area is still a couple of days away.

Wilma seems certain to cross the Florida peninsula this weekend, so monitor the progress of this dangerous storm and start your hurricane preparations checklist . Above all else, follow the site Rules - and stay calm. Preparation saves lives - panic does not. is still a long way off and we have plenty of time to prepare - but the time to start is now.
ED

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