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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1114
Loc: fl
Re: Models [Re: willw]
      #59809 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:43 PM

Its the same Will...nothing has changed...........................

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dkpcb
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 6
Loc: Panama City Beach Florida
Re: Wilma Continued [Re: MikeC]
      #59810 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:43 PM

This is a link to on IR Satellite animation of Wilma.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/animir.html

DK


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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 61
Loc: apopka 28.67N 81.48W
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: Hugh]
      #59813 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:44 PM

The strike probabilities decreased for Ft. Myers and Naples by 1 percentage pt, but remained the same for Marco Island (7), Key West (9) and Tampa (5). The NHC also added the entire eastern seaboard to the wind probability table with a chance of tropical storm for winds all the way to Canada.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1398
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: Hugh]
      #59814 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:44 PM

Does that forecast track re-verify what the GFDL was showing earlier today? If it's ON the East Coast of Florida, than landfall appears to be on track with the 11am advisory. Hm.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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willw
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: Colleen A.]
      #59816 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:48 PM

well to be fair
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_5day.html

and
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_forecast.asp

i guess i see what it is, so yeah same. Not further north... But the fact that they expect it to be THAT sharp is kinda far fetched imo, i don't think of a ENE as it suggests.. i dunno though we'll see

Edited by willw (Wed Oct 19 2005 10:49 PM)


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gk
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: Hugh]
      #59818 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:52 PM

Call me unexperienced but after reviewing the lastest model tracks and water vapor loops over the US I see Wilma landfalling near Tampa and exiting neat St Augustine, closer to the LBAR. I know I was told earlier the the LBAR is a statistical model and is not reliable. My question is why are they still using it. The steering currents from the north are not looking like they are dipping south as predicted. I know there are other things I do not understand, but sometimes things are not as complicated as some may think. What is the possibility that I am right?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Landfall suggestions? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #59819 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:53 PM

Colleen, I'm with you on that thought and theory. The GFS still has about 1.5-2 hours before the data run is completed. I think the next GFDL run at 06Z (2AM EDT) should include ANY possible changes.

An afterthought about Jim Cantore and landfall. Jim is very mobile. Even with a camera and Satellite truck. More mobile than most families. So please don't count on any specific point being the Landfall point.

Jim was 40 miles East of Katrina's landfall point. I highly suspect that was an intentional mislocation, due to Katrina's surge effects.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 475
Loc: Tampa
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: willw]
      #59821 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:55 PM

Everyone, just to lighten the mood, not sure if anyone has heard this. Click on the link

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL_18z/ghmloop.html

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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 845
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: gk]
      #59822 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:57 PM

You could very well be right, but I hope not. Tampa Bay is not off the hook on this at all.

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Michael
2016: 13/9/4
2016 Actual: 15/7/3


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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 61
Loc: apopka 28.67N 81.48W
Re: Interesting stuff from the panhandle discussion [Re: MichaelA]
      #59824 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:01 PM

New thread on the main page.

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 475
Loc: Tampa
Re: Landfall suggestions? [Re: danielw]
      #59825 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:01 PM

Appears that the drier air is really getting sucked in at this point and inhibiting sustained intensity.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 845
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Models [Re: scottsvb]
      #59826 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:02 PM

The track is basically the same, but the time frame has changed to much later. Landfall Sunday AM rather than Saturday PM.

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Michael
2016: 13/9/4
2016 Actual: 15/7/3


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komi
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Re: Landfall suggestions? [Re: danielw]
      #59828 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:03 PM

I think, in this moment any landfall suggestion is just a wild guess ... Thay talking about moving on NE in next 24-36 hours, and all we know to this models will change several times before lanfall ... Like moderator says .. everyone south from Tampa should be ready, but ,making prediction in this moment just make people more nervous then they should be - yet ..

Possible lanfall on Yucatan will change cat and landfall position too ..

NO ONE knows when Wilma will turn, and in what direction ...


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erauwx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Orlando, FL
new thread - see main page. [Re: komi]
      #59829 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:08 PM

just to let everyone know -- there is a new topic posted. see the main page

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