Ronn
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Our local met, Denis Phillips on ABC News TB, seems to really be buying into this becoming a non-event for central Florida.
This is becoming an increasingly more likely scenario. The slower moves, the lower the chance for a west-central--and even southwest--Florida landfall is. will be located at a lower latitude than previously thought when the westerlies set up in the GOM, thus pushing the track farther south than previously thought even though it will still recurve. I think it is entirely possible that all of peninsular Florida may miss a direct strike from this storm. However, with this said, please do not let your guard down anywhere in Florida. This is probably the most difficult forecast of the year, and the best we can do is wait and see.
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JG
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THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Could that explain the screwy last runs of the ?????????
I would say "no". It would explain screwy runs for the , but not the .
GFDL initiates off the , fyi.
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Hugh
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Quote:
Quote:
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THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Could that explain the screwy last runs of the ?????????
I would say "no". It would explain screwy runs for the , but not the .
Actually Hugh, that may not be "entirely" true and perhaps Clark can verify this since he seems to have the inside scoop on sonding schedules... I fairly certain that the is initialized off the parameters I'm afraid...
Ah... my bad, I think you may be right. How about the screwy last run of the BAMM, then? Did it initialize off the ?
The thing I am getting at - which may be completely stupid - is that the last I've seen (the one on WU), ISN'T screwy at all! It's an 8am ET run, same as the , but the BAMM is a 2pm ET run. Maybe the graphic is old.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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typhoon_tip
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Haven't seen the BAMM - you have an urls.. I don't have that particular model source bookmarked.
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Hugh
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Haven't seen the BAMM - you have an urls.. I don't have that particular model source bookmarked.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
BAMM is the yellow one that makes landfall on the Yucatan, then does a U-Turn and heads toward eastern Cuba.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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zacker20
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Despite all the disparity in the forecast models, I really believe that this hurricane could very well be a non-event for the whole Florida pennisula, or it could bypass the pennisula completely and may affect the Keys/Northern Cuba. This is just becoming more and more likely as I am watching the movement of this storm and the upper level winds set up.
EDIT: It has not taken a northerly component in its motion yet, which is worrisome for the folks in the Yucatan pennisula.
Edited by zacker20 (Wed Oct 19 2005 11:18 PM)
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Clark
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They use whatever data they have available while maintaining the data density as feasible. It's not radiosonde launches that kill it, it's the satellite obs -- thousands per model run, largely over the poles, that they can't use. Ten radiosonde obs don't make a large difference; much of the other data are used in normal times as well. This comes from discussions with people at .
The other suggests that the airplane dropsondes were not input into the model, perhaps because there weren't any around/just prior to 12Z or perhaps because of a data ingest issue. Not sure on that one, though.
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Clark
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The entire BAM_ series and the are initialized off of the initial and boundary conditions. There is a version of the run off of the model. Generally the solutions from each model are going to end up about the same as their parent model, but occasionally they will diverge...notably the BAM_ series and the output, due to the inherent dynamics involved.
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Big Tk
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It seems like the last 2 hours of satellite loops show a slight northerly component taking shape. Way too soon to tell, but maybe this is the turn they were expecting.
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JG
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They use whatever data they have available while maintaining the data density as feasible. It's not radiosonde launches that kill it, it's the satellite obs -- thousands per model run, largely over the poles, that they can't use. Ten radiosonde obs don't make a large difference; much of the other data are used in normal times as well. This comes from discussions with people at .
The other suggests that the airplane dropsondes were not input into the model, perhaps because there weren't any around/just prior to 12Z or perhaps because of a data ingest issue. Not sure on that one, though.
So should I give less credence to those runs and await the 0000Z or 0600Z to see which are more inclusive of all of the data to get a better picture of the storm track?
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Hugh
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Despite all the disparity in the forecast models, I really believe that this hurricane could very well be a non-event for the whole Florida pennisula, or it could bypass the pennisula completely and may affect the Keys/Northern Cuba. This is just becoming more and more likely as I am watching the movement of this storm and the upper level winds set up.
EDIT: It has not taken a northerly component in its motion yet, which is worrisome for the folks in the Yucatan pennisula.
Looking at the last several hours of IR imagery, it HAS taken a northerly component in its motion. It's not NW but it's between WNW and NW it appears, at least temporarily. Averaged out over 6 hours it is still WNW.
Looking at the large scale WV loop, I still really believe the trough is going to miss the hurricane. The trough just does not appear to be digging southward. Now, behind that trough is another one, which looks more likely to grab . The westerlies just aren't visible on WV in the GOM right now but they may still return. Right now the flow appears to be slowly east-to-west ahead of , until you get to the area just south of the coast in the panhandle... there the westerlies are more evident.
Or I could be blind 
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
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This whole system looks to be doing loop-d-loops heading in a generally NW direction - if you watch the eye, it's just bouncing around some other center that's moving along.
I'm noticing cloud tops starting to cool again now that we are moving toward night again.
Also, given that the 5pm mentioned microwave imagery, here you go:
http://tinyurl.com/boaz2
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Rasvar
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I am so tempted to put a poll up to see if folks think JB will change his mind with his post tonight. However, I think it would be a lopsided result.
It is sure looking more like a move to the north is blocked and will remain so. I know as soon as I start going with that the situation will change. I certainly don't want the storm coming my way. So a cntinuation of this trend would be welcome.
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Jim
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Hugh
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This whole system looks to be doing loop-d-loops heading in a generally NW direction - if you watch the eye, it's just bouncing around some other center that's moving along.
I'm noticing cloud tops starting to cool again now that we are moving toward night again.
Also, given that the 5pm mentioned microwave imagery, here you go:
http://tinyurl.com/boaz2
Since you mentioned the NW general direction of the loop-d-loops, I'll throw my nickel in. It appears to my eyes that the loop-d-loops are gradually - VERY SLOWLY - turning more to the NW from W and WNW. In terms of cloud tops - the dreaded black is making a comeback. If that trend continues overnight, we MIGHT wake up to the strongest hurricane on record again.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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OrlandoDan
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Wilma has been wobbling all day long. I want to see two more frames on IR before we can see tat se MIGHT be east of the forecasted point. But this is just one of the forecasted points.
There is so much time and space to go before the models come to some sort of agreement again.
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typhoon_tip
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They use whatever data they have available while maintaining the data density as feasible. It's not radiosonde launches that kill it, it's the satellite obs -- thousands per model run, largely over the poles, that they can't use. Ten radiosonde obs don't make a large difference; much of the other data are used in normal times as well. This comes from discussions with people at .
The other suggests that the airplane dropsondes were not input into the model, perhaps because there weren't any around/just prior to 12Z or perhaps because of a data ingest issue. Not sure on that one, though.
Well, then that's a bit of a change over the years... so it is then..
Anyway, this doesn't really change the significance one way or the other, regarding a "slight" westward shift beyond 72 hours; it is still plausible that trough will be able to pick her up in mind - so I do agree with what you said in your other post... Which, believe it or not, the sonding data was the lesser issue for me.
As to Zack...your notion certainly is within the envelope of possibilities, however, not any more possible than the models prematurealy or erroneously backing off such as they have.. .Met 101 in forecasting is to be very weary of model runs with such drastic discontinuity; this is particularly true when not only have several runs of the same model trended, but also when different camps have come into agreement. The 18Z for example is ever so slightly back N again, and together with different data as Clark has mentioned, and or "doing their best to make the data density feasible", makes the 12Z guidance disconcerting for accuracies sake.. Does anyone no the formal status of the 18Z initialization at this time...??. In addition, the 12Z being shifted right is really only about 5 degrees right of the of 00Z out around 144 hours; i.e., too close for comfort and of all the guidance, showing the best continuity...
why...i have no idea... personally i'd never really liked the model for it progressivity bias above 30N latitude... which makes it's more meridianal appeal that much more intriguing...
Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 19 2005 11:41 PM)
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OrlandoDan
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The 22:45 UTC IR shows a burst of cold cloud tops. It will be interesting to see the next frame.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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Ron Basso
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The last 3 hour loop shows a solid NW movement - just as most models have predicted. I expect this storm to pretty much follow the synoptic pattern with movement through the YUC Channel and curving toward the NE for an impact somewhere between the Keys and Tampa. There has been absolutely nothing to change the forecast reasoning today. We will begin to narrow landfall predictions with good certainty tomorrow. Like I said earlier, one odd model run with no other globals following it, no worries - I dont buy the slowing down either - not with a fairly strong trough picking this storm up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
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RJB
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OrlandoDan
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What do the experts think? Am I seeing that will be east of where it is expected to be at 20:00 EDT?
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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The 22:45 UTC IR shows a burst of cold cloud tops. It will be interesting to see the next frame.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
The 2315z image shows an impressive pattern too, but not the blackness that shows up at 2245z. Well, it's dispersed a bit I guess. At any time I think it will reappear.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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