Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Big Red, what are you talking about, there has only been 72 hours worth of reporting as of yet and at 72 hours the storm has already moved off shore ?
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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of course not, btw Lake wales is alot furth SE of Lakeland...they there had winds around 75-80mph when the storm was 90mph.
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Thunderbird12
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The 12Z , , and Canadian models all show spending a significant amount of time over the Yucutan peninsula. The 12Z is quite a bit slower, similar to its 12Z run yesterday. SW Florida still looks like it will threatened one way or another, but there may not be a whole lot of punch left in the storm if it stalls over the Yucutan over an extended period of time.
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emackl
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Loc: Indianapolis
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I find this interesting, out of the Miami weather office:
"OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE COULD BE SOME
EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE FELT THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA. PLEASE
STAY INFORMED BY THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE National Hurricane Center."
Out of Melbourne:
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN...OR POSSIBLY
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
Out of Jacksonville:
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
WEEKEND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
It's odd that Miami only mentions "Could be some effects felt". Aren't they under the gun so to speak? I don't know why but it just seems like there wasn't a whole lot of feeling put into that statement.
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
Here are the latest steering currents for a storm of 's intensity:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html
Great link! Thanks a lot.
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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remember, single model run does not, a definite change make. The Models are very confused at this point, and we'll just have to see what happens, it's a hurry up and wait situation. You can see where there is a weakness almost due north of the storm if you turn on the MSLP tab on the floater. and you can also see the storm starting to hesitate. no definitive answer yet, but I think there is a gradual turn beginning. We'll know more in about 6 hours. 
Also, I noticed someone mentioned it earlier, but had no response, there is something at about 11N 55W that seems to be kicking up a little fuss, it doesn't have a closed circulation, but looking at the quikscat, there is a definite low level twist. I know upper level winds 'aren't favorable for development' but it looks pretty good for 'disorganized' Any thoughts on what I'm not seeing with that one? Certainly i would think it'd warrent an invest of some sort.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Park, FL
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True, analyzing past motion doesn't mean that will continue into the future. However, two things can be taken from the past motion. The first is everyone harps on trends not wobbles. If you compare data over hours or days you may be able to tell when a true change in direction is occurring versus a wobble. The second is one can compare that movement to the official forecast. Thus you can tell if the storm is tracking one way for a longer/shorter period of time than was forecast. To me, 's track to the WNW instead of a NW curve(at least at this point) is significant in terms of intensity and potential landfall timing in Florida.
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Check the Surf
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Can you send me the link to the 12Z you are looking at ? I am not showing any maps past 72 hours. And what I see is the storm moving, granted not to fast, but no slower than it currently is. Actually as of the 72 hours I do not see much of a difference in what it was showing in the 00Z, maybe a little south, but not incredibly.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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The earlier run is more NNE off the northern Yucatan coast...The 12Z stops aat 72 hrs, probaby pending the Gulfstream (42000ft.) data as indicated above. the only difference I noted in the 6Z and 12 Z up to 72 hrs was that the later had the sorm off the coast a little later.
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doug
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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I agree T'bird. I don't know how they (12z & ) have the storm 20+ hours on the Yucatan and stay that strong! I would tend to think this would disrupt the core significantly. Then they are strengthening this prior to landfall on Florida as a Cat 3 from what I can tell, and keep it at about 75knots off the east coast of Florida. Maybe they are assuming a period of lower shear until comes off the Florida East coast. They have slowed it down a bit. ???? 
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just a note to say that the cancun radar mirror link here is working again. Using mirrors like this is preferable since the actual site cannot handle the load of tons of hurricane trackers looking it up.
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ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce...
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I found this on Accuweather's site just a few minutes ago. Who was it that said the season was almost over??
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, tropical waves are located along 47 west, along 57 west, along 71 west and along 80 west. These waves are moving west at about 4-6 degrees longitude per day. The only wave of concern is along 55 west, where we find a couple of small vortices. Also, the shear has relaxed over this wave and some model output suggests some development is possible in a few days.
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The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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the 12Z run of the has landfall near Sarasota........
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I just looked and I cannot find any maps with a 12Z timestamp, and the 06Z run is the latest one I see. Am I missing a secret website?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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FlaMommy
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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well if thats true its gettin a little too close to home....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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NewWatcher
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/login.do?username=guest
try this for the
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
and this for some others
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
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Quote:
the 12Z run of the has landfall near Sarasota........
That has moved north now right? Also, the follows the official forecast I believe as well.
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
the 12Z run of the has landfall near Sarasota........
12z has it below Naples so...............
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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i think u mean ukmet dont you?
cmc doesnt run 12Z out past 72 hrs i dont think so it is hard to tell where it will be past then
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
Quote:
the 12Z run of the has landfall near Sarasota........
That has moved north now right? Also, the follows the official forecast I believe as well.
No its moved alot south as it was the north outliner and was above tampa and now about 100 miles south this run.
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