F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | >> (show all)
lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: Wilma models [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #60163 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:36 PM

Quote:

Here's a link that I particularily like for updated, animated model runs - it has GFS, NOGAPS, gdfl, among others:
Experimental forecast- Tropical Cyclone Genesis

(in case this doesn't show, here's the url http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)




That still shows the 06 Zulu run for GFS. Frank made reference to the 12. Wondering where that one can be found...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Wilma [Re: Rdietch]
      #60164 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:37 PM

I heard an interview last night with one of the pilots who fly into these storms. It's amazing what they do. He said that we are the only country that does this and our technology is far superior to anyone elses. ...and still they can only narrow landfall down to a 500 mile ranfge at this time.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
Re: wilma now [Re: native]
      #60165 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:42 PM

Florida has had some hellacious freezes during active hurricane periods. The 1830s & 1840s were one such period. In 1837 I believe it was, Charlotte Harbor froze over. The 1880s & 1890s were another period of hurricane activity, and the winters were awful. The freezes of 1894-1895 pretty much destroyed the citrus industry in North Florida. It's snowed twice in Central Florida during my lifetime.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
Re: Wilma [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #60166 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:44 PM

GFDL going crazy again?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Wilma [Re: Rdietch]
      #60167 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:55 PM

2:00 is out. Moving NW at 5. Moved .2 N 0 W last 3 hours

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Wilma [Re: Rdietch]
      #60168 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:55 PM

Appears that Wilma has a more NW component now on the latest Vis Sat loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Wilma [Re: Rdietch]
      #60169 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:55 PM

I wonder if it thinks it will miss the next front coming through? Or, since I believe its the same time run as yesterday, if its looking at the same information?


Hhmmmmmmmmmmmmm?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Wilma [Re: Rdietch]
      #60171 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:58 PM

Man, that's not making sense. It's got the center not breeching 20N for 30 hours (20.2-87.7 to be exaxt). If you look at the loop it can't take that long. Can it? If so, I'm going away for the weekend and will track her next week..LOL!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Wilma models [Re: lawgator]
      #60172 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:02 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Here's a link that I particularily like for updated, animated model runs - it has GFS, NOGAPS, gdfl, among others:
Experimental forecast- Tropical Cyclone Genesis

(in case this doesn't show, here's the url http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)




That still shows the 06 Zulu run for GFS. Frank made reference to the 12. Wondering where that one can be found...




Here's the 12Z GFS link - pretty close to NHC forecast track - maybe a tad north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml

--------------------
RJB


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
Re: Wilma models [Re: Ron Basso]
      #60173 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:04 PM

By going north now if that holds does that mean more south track or north track into Florida?Would think more south since it would be back to where it was the other day no?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Wilma models [Re: Rdietch]
      #60174 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:09 PM

Quote:

By going north now if that holds does that mean more south track or north track into Florida?Would think more south since it would be back to where it was the other day no?




Depends on the speed. Quicker North now, longer before she turns NE. That would mean a Central FL hit. Slower North or stall would mean a Southern FL or keys hit. Although I think it will maintain a Western component and get very close to the Yuc.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Wilma [Re: emackl]
      #60175 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:09 PM

GFDL is always shaky in direction after 72hrs so its feeling the trough racing thru to its N and dragging it east toward Cuba. Not out of the question but I disregard anything it shows in movement after 72hrs.

Data went into the 12Z models today from the NOAA Jet,,, I feel they will adjust alittle more on each mission data. The Data (from what I know and could be wrong) only shows what is going on ahead and around the system, such as in the Gulf, thing is though, conditions will change in the gulf in 12 hrs so the with the slow movement of her and changing conditions,, the long term movement wont be the same. Anotherwords, the data is good on Wilma in her short term motion. Pretty much its only good for fast moving systems cause the enviroment changes, especially with a trough coming down over the weekend,, same steering flow will change. Right now we see its mainly light S-N steering over the Gulf so there is nothing to push her if she gets N of the Yucitan till the trough digs in, this is shown by the models..but when the next NOAA jet goes in and the 1 after that,,those inputs will go into the next 00Z and 12Z runs in the future and we will again see the short term motion of the enviroment.

Edited by scottsvb (Thu Oct 20 2005 02:12 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Wilma models [Re: Rdietch]
      #60178 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:10 PM

Need to wait and see what the models do with the more northward component. If you look at a surface map of the Southeast the ridge overtop of Wilma is steadily weakening allowing her to turn more to the north. The next set of runs should be interesting.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Wilma models [Re: charlottefl]
      #60179 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:14 PM

this NW movement has been anticipated for days, at first it was suppose to cross western cuba. Its moving NW but also alot are seeing the eye expand some with the dry air patch that went into the center.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
Re: Wilma - Data included in 12Z gfs [Re: scottsvb]
      #60180 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:18 PM

SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
1510 UTC THU OCT 20 2005

THE 12Z NAM HAS COMPLETED. THE GFS HAS BEGUN WITH 32
CANADIAN...12 MEXICAN AND 9 CARIBBEAN STATIONS IN FOR THE
DUMP. ALSO INCLUDED WERE 10 USAF DROPSONDE REPORTS AND 17
NOAA G-IV DROPSONDE REPORTS.

12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
RIW/72672 - PURGED WINDS 785 MB AND UP...TOO FAST/ERRATIC.
DRA/72387 - 10142...GROUND EQUIP FAILURE.
PASY/70414 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM...IN FOR GFS.
LWX/72403 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM...IN FOR GFS.
TUS/72274 - 10142...GROUND EQUIP FAILURE.

CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
Re: Wilma - Data included in 12Z gfs [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #60181 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:25 PM

The 2pm Bam takes it into the Yucatan deep then out and across south Florida over Miami.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Wilma models [Re: scottsvb]
      #60182 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:26 PM

This was on the HPC:

MUCH DEPENDS ON THE FATE OF Wilma EMERGING FROM THE CARRIBEAN...
BUT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDING MUCH SLOWER WITH SYSTEM...
SCENARIO OF 00Z CMC AND NOGAPS DEPICTING SUPER STORM COMBO WITH
MID LEVEL VORTEX IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. STRENGTH OF
TROF ON LAST TWO RUNS OF GFS INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL COLD SNAP FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.

Will someone tell me what a super storm combo with mid level vortex is? Sounds like it's a good thing it's becoming less likely!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Wilma models [Re: emackl]
      #60184 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:31 PM

They are talking about a perfect storm type off N.England.

Edited by scottsvb (Thu Oct 20 2005 03:12 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Wilma [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #60186 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:34 PM

I'd like to echo what somebody said earlier regarding the threat to Mexico. While a Yucutan landfall and subsequent stall could decimate Wilma and spare Florida a lot of problems, that scenario would likely cause a signficantly larger loss of life that what would occur with even a very strong hurricane impacting Florida somewhere. I know many of you live in Florida and are rightly concerned about your friends and family and I'm not being critical of anyone focusing too much on Florida, but parts of Mexico are facing a potentially major disaster here.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jaxmike
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
Moving NNW? [Re: MikeC]
      #60187 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:35 PM

It seems to me that in the past few frames Wilma is moving north of NW. IF, IF, this is the case, and IF this trend continues for a significant period of time, would it stand to reason that the storm will make it further north before it makes its turn to the east?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 181 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 59536

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center