F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | >> (show all)
harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
Re: Changes [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #59895 - Thu Oct 20 2005 12:58 AM

Today will be a very telling day as to where Wilma is planned to make impact at. Any increase in speed will make the landfall more to the north, so everyone should still pay attention to Wilma, up and down the coast of florida. That's why there is a cone of uncertainty, and one shouldn't just pay attention to the line down the middle.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Changes [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #59898 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:02 AM

It is alone in it's forcast,so for now I will write it off.The GDFL is the one I watch,and the other models are closer to it.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
Re: Changes [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #59900 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:09 AM

BTW where can we get the GDFL early like the NOGAPS and the GFS? would like to see the 0Z run of it before bed.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Changes [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #59901 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:09 AM

Are some models know to be generally more reliable then others or does the choice of model depend on the type of storm and circumstances?

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Changes [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #59903 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:11 AM

Recon is near the Center. At first glance it appears the tropical storm and maybe even the Hurricane Force wind field has enlarged.

This is probably due to ERC and Wilma now having a larger Eye. Therefore a larger windfield.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Models [Re: danielw]
      #59904 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:15 AM

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
Re: Changes [Re: danielw]
      #59906 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:16 AM

Yea, on the latest satellite loops it appears as if the center has been expanding outwards.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Models [Re: danielw]
      #59907 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:17 AM

Here pick a model any model. This shows the current model spread and also the most recent NOGAPS. This is current.. for now.. http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/9856/al2420057hd.jpg

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Changes [Re: harmlc.ath.cx]
      #59908 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:17 AM

Look like she still may have Concentric Eyewalls.
Two wind field maximums.

Max flt lvl wind 121kts. Pressure Center near 18.0N?=/ 84.6W

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 20 2005 01:23 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
Re: Models [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #59909 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:22 AM

Thanks.


The new CMC i see on the site is out and it shows key west! so go figure where this is going to go as it has about the same chance i guess to go where the CMC says as much as the gaps.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
Re: Models [Re: Rdietch]
      #59911 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:24 AM

Quote:

Thanks.


The new CMC i see on the site is out and it shows key west! so go figure where this is going to go as it has about the same chance i guess to go where the CMC says as much as the gaps.




This is interesting because CMC has it just grazing the Yucatan (not unlike the current NHC track) and yet it still end up a Keys event.

When is the next UKMET run?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Models [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #59913 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:27 AM

Quote:

Here pick a model any model. This shows the current model spread and also the most recent NOGAPS. This is current.. for now.. http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/9856/al2420057hd.jpg




Where did you get this pic?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Models [Re: evergladesangler]
      #59914 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:27 AM

URNT12 KNHC 200525
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/05:13:00Z
B. 18 deg 00 min N
084 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2209 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 142 deg 120 kt
G. 046 deg 034 nm
H. 899 mb
I. 16 C/ 3045 m
J. 18 C/ 3039 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0924A Wilma OB 06
MAX FL WIND 120 KT NE QUAD 05:02:20 Z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Models [Re: evergladesangler]
      #59916 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:28 AM

CMC has been off too much,,in general,,so far the best models to date have been the UKMET and NOGAPS and would of said GFDL but I didnt like that 12Z run...at least we know its Cancun,,,but does it slide thru it and off the N coast or go just south of there and weaken over the peninsula of the Yucitan before it re-emerges...thats what we want to know over the next 24hrs...too hard to tell right now. I havent seen the UKMET yet but should be out in next 20-30min.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Drop [Re: scottsvb]
      #59918 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:36 AM

Something strange about that Eye dropsonde. It's missing a number of levels of data.
Not reporting the wind last 150meters either.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Models [Re: scottsvb]
      #59919 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:36 AM

not sure what to think of new runs....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

at first glance more spread out?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
Re: Models [Re: evergladesangler]
      #59920 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:38 AM

New UKmet is out also and is about the same as the CMC and the GFS taking it over the keys.

So far you got 3 taking it to the keys and 1 near Tampa.GDFL out soon bet its going to be like the last 3.

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 20 2005 01:45 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Drop [Re: danielw]
      #59921 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:39 AM

yeah saw that.... must of been a bad dropsonde...

UZNT13 KNHC 200525
XXAA 2005/ 99339 70845 11734 99899 28004 ///// 00/// ///// 92///
///// 85498 25405 70198 18200 88999 77999
31313 09608 80513
61616 AF308 0924A Wilma OB 07
62626 EYE 0516 AEV 20507 =
XXBB 20058 99339 70845 11734 00899 28004 11850 25405 22721 19617
33705 19400 44697 17400
21212 00899 /////
31313 09608 80513
61616 AF308 0924A Wilma OB 07
62626 EYE 0516 AEV 20507 =


where's the rest?
should look like this....
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/tempdrop.htm


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Oct 20 2005 01:39 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Drop [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59922 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:49 AM

I understand the levels above 850mb not being there...pressure too low.
But the lat/long for the 'splash' isn't there either.
Oh well. They got the data.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Drop [Re: danielw]
      #59923 - Thu Oct 20 2005 01:54 AM

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT
BETWEEN...WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...899 MB.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 249 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 59551

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center