evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
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GFDL 0Z out and very similar to .
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
New UKmet is out also and is about the same as the and the taking it over the keys.
So far you got 3 taking it to the keys and 1 near Tampa.GDFL out soon bet its going to be like the last 3.
I think the biggest thing to remember, it's not like there is a giant spread between most of the models at this point. you're seeing about a 100 mile spread total at 3 days out it appears. It won't take much for any of the models to shift north or south,
Right now I'm just taking a look at a long loop of the storm, It hasn't made the northward turn, but it does appear to be stair stepping now. I suspect Tomorrow night will be when we will know.
Want to know what I think is amusing to me? The storm has been under 900 mb for 24 hours, and we're not more amazed.  I think we're jaded. *grins*
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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pretty cool water vapor shot.... looks up to date too.... (time stamp in pic)
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI00_wv.gif
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Mark, I was wondering the same thing. This could be called a 'steady state' Hurricane.
And what happened to the that was visible on satellite?
I saw two wind maximas on the Recon data. But the inner/ peak wind wasn't as high as I thought it would be.
121kts at Flight Level isn't too shabby for a storm that's been spinning wildly and wobbling for 24 hours, and on a 4 mile stem at that.
This would make her akin to a Long Track Tornado..right? Anothe steady state type cyclone.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
GFDL 0Z out and very similar to .
Could someone in the know about the current models please explain again which models are coupled together? I know the and , one is run off the other, is the the model that the other models use as a basis for their run? and what other model uses (or )for the model run, (which could explain why certain models clump together more often that not).
Looking at the LBAR, the interesting thing about it is that it's initalized on a very recent plot of information (Other models may use less timely information). And I've noticed as it trends a bit north (north of tampa now....)So do others. also you have A98E and near and just south of Tampa. I'm still not sold on the southerly track. But I'll be happy if it does go south. Though I wouldn't want this to hit anywhere if possible.
No panic, just wary...
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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current WV setup...
Tropical - 14 km Water Vapor (1 hr) - IR 3
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html
close up: Tropical - GOES-12 4 km IR 4 Floater #1
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_ir4_float1_0.html
i think there maybe a slight shift in the 5am.... maybe a little slower and to the left in first 72hrs.... or they may just leave it alone....and wait on next runs...
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
oh by the way.... Max is the Man.... i think the Press Conference yesterday was an smart call... i watched him and gen. johnson go up to capitol hill a few weeks ago and go in front of the science committee and from what he said... i actually thought we would see something like that on the next system... a press conference..... SO ALL NETWORKS can get it out LIVE..... meaning everyone will know what's going on... AT ALL LEVELS.... i think we may see more of this in the future... (starting next season) 
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Ok this is my first forecast which I will change again tomorrow night cause I still dont know exactly what will happen between 36-60hrs......
What we have here is an agreement with the models that it will be very close to Cancun very late tomorrow night. Models all agree on this but some are spread south of cancun to just missing land. Right now looking at data from mid and upper level winds over the gulf and southern U.S shows heights droping over there as a trough moves out of the plains and into the ohio valley by Friday. Like the says this will slide the ridge sw over the BOC and cause a weakness in the eastern gulf....this would suggest a slow movement NNW or N between 86-88W on Friday......In the meantime upper level support will dive rapidly south over the plains into the western and northern gulf Saturday into Sunday.. This is where the models spread out...... the along with the has a slow movement saturday just NE of the Yucitan moving ahead of the trough ene towards NW Cuba........it feels the big trough and then rides up it near the Keys to near Miami and the Bahamas.....for now Im going to disregard this and here is why....the first trough will try to erode the current Gulf ridge and slide it sw and it should pick it up enough to move off the Yucitan slowly northward and maybe a bend NNE late Friday night into Saturday..... There is nothing to support right now that it will move slowly ene off Cancun towards Cuba...the westerlys will be too far N and wont come down until the main trough digs in later in the weekend..... The Ukmet solution has it just N of the and drifts it ene then feeling the main digging trough to races ene towards Sw Florida and out near Miami give or take. Again possible but I dont see the early ene drift.....that leads to the ...pretty reliable model....shows more meandering for 12-24hrs near where the Ukmet has her,, but instead of drifting her ene,,does N or NNE before feeling the trough and racing NE along the cold front.....Right now,, we dont know which will win out but we will know by Friday morning cause we will see where near Cancun comes inland or just skims the coast and how far off the northern coast it gets....if it does...then Im inline with the ..if it stays south of Cancun and makes landfall ,,then it could meander there for a day until the main trough picks it up,,,,but it will be on the tail end of the trough and get pushed more ENE towards NW Cuba,, near the keys and Miami and Nassua,,,,,another words,,, further N if gets past Cancun the more it will have a chance to go NE when the main trough comes in,,,further south,,it will be on the tail end of the trough.
So its going to be close on where she goes the next 24hrs,..then friday,,,lets see if it goes N of Cancun,,how much N or NNE it drifts before being picked up.......... Will update tomorrow night to see where this comes in by Cancun.
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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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well i was thinking earlier today that would start moving more nw by now, but it's still sliding along at around 290. big hurricane so it can 'mitch' its way westward if it wants, but if it responds in semi-normal fashion there ought to be some more northward component shortly. the sooner it starts responding to the falling heights to the north, the less of the yucatan it's going to intercept. much better for florida in the long run for the cozumel/cancun area to take the storm down a notch. a day long crossing would probably weaken 2-3 categories... but i'm going to hold with the philosophy that any crossing will be brief and not diminish the storm below category 3 strength.
as it begins to zip northeast across the southeastern gulf, there ought to be steadily increasing shear. it will also be in a high relative vorticity region south of the upper trough setting up house over the great lakes, so baroclinic forces may start acting to maintain the hurricane early. expect a 2/3 landfall in southwest florida, probably in the fort myers area. it could easily be a 1 if the storm camps over the yucatan. a lot of the guidance is closer to naples, but i'm going to stay hardheaded and not shift my landfall zone. trimming the north side, though... so now it runs from sarasota to chokoloskee... with lee and charlotte counties in the middle. the hurricane's wind field has already expanded quite a bit, and should continue expanding as it begins to accelerate into the westerlies. i'd say the the entire lower third of florida could receive hurricane force gusts from the storm... with sustained hurricane winds cutting across the state along and just south of the eye path.
the globals are still split over the recurvature endgame, but a lot of the dynamic models are starting to see phasing. some of the cousins are also showing what the popular is only seeing every other run... a very rapid, day long run from east of florida to the coast of new england, with baroclinic deepening along the way. the newer even runs the storm nap of the coast from hatteras to long island. if the worst-case scenario unfolds, the real story from will be what happens in the northeast... which is already in a bad hydrologic state. fortunately a lot of the leaves up there have fallen, but even if the hurricane were to pass a good distance offshore strong gradient winds will likely result in widespread wind damage. a direct hit will entail a large coastal surge, very destructive winds throughout the region, and extreme rainfall on top of the recent rains and flooding.
wilma has the potential to cap the hurricane season off in a very bad way for parts of the east coast. if i were on the florida peninsula, outer banks, or new england coastline, i'd get my hurricane contingency plan worked out, grab supplies, and discuss the potential with my neighbors. there are three to six days for the threatened regions to prepare.
HF 0630z20october
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Okay, You two. I just turned off the Weather Channel.
Those were High resolution forecasts from both of you. Did you conspire on the timing too?
I believe Toho posted this link earlier. If you use the area where gray meets green, ahead of the outflow as 's boundary line. The models tracks add a third dimension.
I'm not saying she will follow this...as it's going to change in the next 48 hours, to some degree.
Just speculation on my part.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI00_wv.gif
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Mike N
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Minimal poster, avid reader since discovering this site last year. Thanks to all the professionals and Hank's that volunteer their time, thoughts, knowledge and expertise.
Seems to me we might have a case similar to in one way - stay with me. That is, you see the models clustered (for the most part) over Southern FL the last 2 days. It has been well documented that we won't know where is going until starts to have the easterly component after her stint of a N component. The models will give us an early indicator where that higher probability strike location will be as early as tomorrow after tomorrow night's 0z runs. Back to - the models where clustered on Houston for a while and then models started to shift and if you caught on early enough and predicted a landfall on the models you'd been pretty darn close about 72 hrs out. I think a similar situation could occur with . Watch for the trends in the models. I could be off here but Houston is about 100-125 mi from where made landfall. So at this point a Sarasota landfall is about as likely as a Key West landfall. I say anywhere from Hernando to the Keys should stay alert to say the least.
BTW - It kills me to watch the media (local mets) during these storms. Some hyped it last night, some tonight and vice versa. Being born and raised in Tampa, and those of you who haved lived here long enough can attest to what I'm about to say, we have cried wolf so many times that people around here are "numb" to hurricanes. The general consensus I get is that people around here think hurricanes are no big deal and we've been through more than a couple since my first memory of one - Elena 85' The only problem with that is Tampa hasn't been though a true hurricane since 1921 or 28 - forget when it hit. The so called hurricanes we (Tampa) went through last year we maybe classified officially rolling though but I can tell you from my house in NE Tampa we were lucky if we had a hurricane force gust and not many at that. The strongest was with Jeanne. Point is there is a huge difference between that and taking a direct hit from a Cat 3 storm. People around here and wherever it may hit for that matter will be shocked at the damage that occurs if indeed it makes landfall as a Cat 3. Happens every time.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Mike your right.......thing is,,people are wary of them here in Tampa, but they just dont think it will come here. Infact I dont also until it actually happens...its like what I said last night in sports for cleveland,,people hope they win a championship,,,,but they know they wont win at the end....same here in Tampa,,,most will think,,Ahh it will pass south and we might get a couple bands,,,and we might, we wont know for 36 hrs.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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18.1N/ 84.9W on the pressure center. NW outbound Max Flt level wind at 117-118kts.
Should have a new pressure shortly. If it changes?
URNT12 KNHC 200705
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/06:49:40Z
B. 18 deg 05 min N
084 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2245 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 212 deg 112 kt
G. 126 deg 026 nm
H. 903 mb
I. 16 C/ 3051 m
J. 17 C/ 3040 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C04-40
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0924A OB 11
MAX FL WIND 121 KT SW QUAD 05:14:00 Z
Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 20 2005 03:09 AM)
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Mike N
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Agreed. We've had many that were coming our way and/or direction that never hit. False sense of security is the best way to describe it.
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Mike N
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 16
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Interesting to see the loops seem to have stopped and now it looks to be a constant stairstep with every frame - no loops. Probably due to the ongoing .
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Checking the last three Fixes.
19/21:39Z 17.7 N/ 83.7W
20/05:13Z 18.1N/ 84.8W
IN 7:34 moved :23min N and 1:09 W.
They are using dd mm format
That breaks down to 0.4N and 1.1W-roughly.
In other words no turn...Yet!
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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5 a.m. out. Looks like she has slowed down. Same path though. The 's predicted path has not changed much over the last day or so. I just hope she continues to weaken.
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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Models have dropped farther south. I am hoping we will see a southward shift in the projected path. I have to say that - I live in Naples!
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Morgana
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: Palmetto, Florida
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Bending over to kiss my...oh nevermind. Lame attempt at humor. :P
Hey, I almost made it out of here. We've been trying to sell so we could move to our land in Ga. (where weather is almost non-existant). I'm on the South end of Tampa Bay sitting on the Manatee River which empties into Ye Good Old Gulf of Mexico.
It will be interesting to see if this old 1896 two-story collapses around us or what. I just retired from (police) dispatch a few months ago, so this will be the first 'cane season I haven't worked in awhile. It will be really weird riding this out as a citizen and not shift sleeping on a cold floor. I must admit I *will* miss that huge generator the station has!
I'm glad I found this forum because other forums I hang at just don't understand my interest.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I notice the overall signature on the following WV loop is becoming just slightly elongated North to South. Is this a sign of the gradual turn more to a northerly component?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
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I see that too. Sounds reasonable, and I think I read somewhere this may indicate a direction change.
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