Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
|
|
Here's the latest animated run - It looks to be 00Z. Can't seem to find 06Z. This looks very ominous for Tampa Bay. 
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wx...;dtg=2005102000
--------------------
RJB
|
Tracey
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
|
|
How much North?
|
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
|
|
for the new run to verify it would have to be going NW about now which as of this point its not.
|
Jonathan Franklin
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Miami, Florida
|
|
I have a question, in this morning's discussion section, in the last paragraph reference is made:
WILMA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE CHARACTERISTICS
What do they mean by extra-tropical characteristics? And what is the impact or concern, if any, for those of us in South Florida?
Thanks in advance.
|
stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
They generally mean that will develop a more Cold-Core with a broader wind-field structure. They are refering to after it exits the East-Coast of Florida. One of our more knowledgeable folk on here can likely explain it better.
--------------------
Jara
*************************************************************
|
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
|
|
The 06Z is here
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?loop=true&requestId=1129744754535.1195.3
--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Lake Toho pointed out the the has been consistent with a "south of Tampa" hit for the last 3 days. If the and are shifting further north...and yes, Stuart would be further north) then I think we need to pay attention. I believe that those are the 3 most reliable models. I think I remember a storm last year (or it could have been this year) where the outlier was actually the CORRECT model; so it's happened before.
Look at it this way: consistency is the key. We have one (which has been called the outlier) model that has been consistent for 3 days, maybe 4 now. The other two were in line until a fluke yesterday, but the runs are now coming into line with a further north movement...not sure if they have been doing that for just one run or two.
We have seen too many times where the track has shifted a little left, then a little right, then back again to trust any forecasted path right now. That's why we're in a "cone".
If I remember correctly, was supposed to hit Jamaica, but missed it; hit Cuba but went below it, we all know what happened. And, as alluded to by a prior poster, look at what happened with ...it went from hitting Mexico to making landfall in Port Arthur, Texas.
To rule out any portion of the state is ridiculous. Right *now*, this very minute, some areas are in more danger than others. But we are 3 days out and to say that any other areas in FL can "breath a sigh of relief" is not only silly, it's downright irresponsible.
IMHO, I think that it will be a very close call for Cancun and Cozumel, but I don't think it's going to plow into the Yucatan Peninsula. I think it will graze it and then move north, then NE. I don't see a scenario which would have it making a very sharp right hand turn (ENE). I'm not sure that is possible with a storm as large as .
Please keep in mind, that the above statement is only my opinion, not a forecast.
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Beyond my knowledge to say why this is sometimes missing in the summary information, but look further down and you'll see there was another entry with wave heights missing in the summary info.
However it is still observing the wave height if you look at the current readings at the top, and if you page down to the bottom, to the detailed wave summary, where you'll notice that the waves have started to become steep. Wait until they become very steep. The sea conditions tha these buoys tell us about can be really amazing to comptemplate. You should have seen what the buoy south of Dauphin Island recorded last year for - really large, steep waves.
I wasn't tracking hurricanes then but I was visiting my cousin at the Jersey Shore when I saw on the news a strong hurricane was south of the MS coast. I was able to get a couple hours on the computers at the local library and get on the internet to search for and relay some information to my brother during the evening she made landfall. They had some trouble getting me to leave at 9pm! I vividly remember finding the and NOAA sites and looking at the Mobile radar image, wondering when in the sam hill was going to make that bend to the right that they were talking about, and spare MS from destruction. The next morning I went back and checked the buoy info. Wow it was impressive. There was only one newspaper that I knew of that picked up on the info as well and noted the one exceptionally large (average) wave height of over 50 feet, which I also noted in an email to my brother:
"The buoy south of Dauphin stopped measuring waves from 3pm to 10pm...I think the waves were too extreme to measure...but came online after that and measured average wave height of 52.5 ft at 7pm"
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
Tracey
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
|
|
Does anyone have a site that shows graphic which includes the model?
|
NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
|
|
Heya Colleen
I dont know if this is what you were thinking or not but the was the outlier on and and turned out to be right. I agree with you that those three are the most reliable this year at least. I am watching the and with interest
peace
--------------------
Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
|
Ed G
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
|
|
Tracey, check out this site....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
doesn't update very frequently
|
emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
|
|
Boy, she really seems to be stretching north/south now. Has anyone looked recently? Is it just me or is she elongating? Steve Lyons has always said that's a sign of a change of direction. I hate it for the Yuc but it would be so much better for FL is she never turned.
|
Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Boy, she really seems to be stretching north/south now. Has anyone looked recently? Is it just me or is she elongating? Steve Lyons has always said that's a sign of a change of direction. I hate it for the Yuc but it would be so much better for FL is she never turned.
I've been watching that as well the past few hours. Also seems to be slowing somewhat. It may start to meander for the next few hours before starting the NW movement.
--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Yes, those were the storms I was thinking of...thanks for backing that up! My brain is addled at this point, LOL.
Also...is it me or does it appear that the storm is beginning to *maybe* move more towards the NW? Or is that just because a whole loop has not been finished?
Thanks Pam!
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
|
|
Yep, starting to look like an egg
--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
Good morning:
The mystery should be over today, and before the 5p.m. we should know if the track will hold or some more yet unforeseen resullt such as those suggesting meandering south of Cuba will emerge.
the visual evidence suggests the guidance will prevail, in my opinion. What I see is the high in the western GOM IS eroding tothe SW. On the WV you can see area of convergence with the strom and the moisture from the storm beginning to effect a SW-NE flow west of 90W. The short wave energy with the low over the Central U.S. is emerging off the Texas Gulf Coast from the NW and it looks like a steering mechanism to the NE will emerge from this later say in about 18-24 hrs. The amplitude of this would seem to be consistent with 6Z...
This of course is not at all what the experts are thinking, which continues to be a Southwest Florida solution.
--------------------
doug
|
THROWIN
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
|
|
Here is a web cam from my resort in Cancun (Royal Sands). You can watch approach until power goes out.
http://www.royalresorts.com/webcam.stm
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Great webcams...already seeing the gusty winds. Thanks and good luck!
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
|
|
Can someone answer this, if she did start that dreaded turn and just clipped the Yuc does it change the timing at all? Is the confident with their sun/mon Florida landfall? I'm confused on whether or not yesterdays crazy runs influenced the timing on the 's part. It worries me especially if she goes into the Naples area. That's a difficult evac city.
|
Tracey
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
|
|
thanks for the site. Sure hope isn't correct. Nobody seems to talk about the models this year, why, do you know?
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
