Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Just got home...Wilma not looking like she's going to make it into cat 5 territory again. Looks like dry air may be having an effect on the north and west sides of the storm, which I didn't expect this afternoon. But looking at the wv loop, that is the way it appears to me. Also it looks like she ran out of real estate before she got a chance to completely recover from the . The eye hasn't completely cleared out yet. But she still has good overall organization, the eye is round, she still has an extremely low pressure, and is still a very powerful hurricane.
Looking at the steering layer right now it certainly does appear she is going to bulls-eye Cozumel.
Buoy 42056 is getting hurricane-force gusts now and waves may have peaked at 33ft. Pressure is still up around 990.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
I've been watching you guys for a while and thought you might like this link (its the 11pm forecast track)
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt01.gif
if you look at the degrees (325) of motion it looks like its now officially moving NNW
...Interesting! I had a 1/4 ration using arc tan for an angle of 360 - 15, which equals 345degrees... I am a bit surprised that they are so flat.. I'm thinking the discussion will be interesting..
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jmusicman
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,FL
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Yeah it would need to be closer to 340 for a true NNW... btw.... the navy always updates that site about 15-30 minutes before the ....
Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 20 2005 10:56 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The official forecast brings back up to 145 knots (cat 5) before landfall near Cancun. Needless to say, that would be a disaster.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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...I'm sure this has been covered already but just in case...Wilma's circulation field has grown tremendously since this time yesterday. Even if she does stay barely off shore and skims by, they'll have hurricane force winds and damage extensively so we should say that it's a moot point perhaps.
In other words...it's high confidence for sustained hurricane + force on the coast.. heck, at 7pm had sustained 49mph at C
Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Oct 20 2005 10:53 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Just got an email from a friend in Playa Del Carmen,they still have power,And not to bad yet.But the winds are increasing and the rain is getting heavy.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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I too had a 345ish track over the last few hours from radar (heard that attenuation wasn't an issue, but didn't think to ask if the equipment in Mexico was the attenuation-reducing variety). On that track, her eye should miss landfall.
That being said, I'm not going to stay up all night to watch and will backpedal and say that a partial landfall is probable, but I do not expect the entire eye to be on land at any point in the next 24 hours.
YMMV, but I'm seeing the same info as everyone else.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Aw yes, what to do. You people make me laugh at all the guess work that is going on in this forum. This model says it is going west, this one says it is going east, and this one says it will stall out. Give me a break already. Everyone is looking at all the models for their predictions and end results. To me, I belive that according to "ALL" the models, probally will not make landfall, but come through the Yucatan unscathed. What does that mean? Well, a CAT 4 on the move, perhaps a CAT 5 for a couple more days. If we didn't have models to look at, then we on this forum would have nothing to comment on. It's a crap shoot. Change tracks here, then re-change them here, who knows. Mother nature is the one who knows. Those unfortunate in the path of , may god bless all of you. But Everyone needs to heed the speed.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
Aw yes, what to do. You people make me laugh at all the guess work that is going on in this forum. This model says it is going west, this one says it is going east, and this one says it will stall out. Give me a break already. Everyone is looking at all the models for their predictions and end results. To me, I belive that according to "ALL" the models, probally will not make landfall, but come through the Yucatan unscathed. What does that mean? Well, a CAT 4 on the move, perhaps a CAT 5 for a couple more days. If we didn't have models to look at, then we on this forum would have nothing to comment on. It's a crap shoot. Change tracks here, then re-change them here, who knows. Mother nature is the one who knows. Those unfortunate in the path of , may god bless all of you. But Everyone needs to heed the speed.
...Like I said in my previous post "...I'm sure this has been covered already but just in case...Wilma's circulation field has grown tremendously since this time yesterday. Even if she does stay barely off shore and skims by, they'll have hurricane force winds and damage extensively so we should say that it's a moot point perhaps."
..
is that the break you want? 
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Nice Post and if you only knew how right you are! "Crap Shoot is a good definition. Thats pretty much it in a nutshell!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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21/0250Z...THE 00Z STARTED ON TIME. NGM MODEL DONE.
NAM MODEL WAS OUT TO T+72HRS.
NCEP RECEIVED 28 DROPSONDE REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV FLYING RECON FOR HURRICANE .
00Z RAOB RECAP..
JAN/72235 - 10142..EQUIP PBLM
note:This is Jackson,MS NWS site, and could have some effect of the models. As a weak shortwave appears to have passed through jackson since 12Z this morning. Just food for thought-Only~danielw
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jmusicman
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,FL
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well is it a 7 we going for? 16.67%... or do we just bet on the evens? (49.7%) 
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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we be talking philly here. any takers?
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
Nice Post and if you only knew how right you are! "Crap Shoot is a good definition. Thats pretty much it in a nutshell!
Looks like we're not the only one's taking interest in these developments tonight,
NHC: "HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS STEER NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
TURN OR THE JET DATA."
...Trust me, mentioning it, discussing it, reasoning it how....it's all important, necessitated and frankly, what this forum is all about...
...It's odd that people ever even hint at being critical for other people exercising the use of this forum for exactly what it exists for... Strange logic.
And actually, I forgot to add: "THIS TRACK ALSO REQUIRES AN EARLIER RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE AND A FASTER PROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA." - all from the official 11pm discussion.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Oct 20 2005 11:08 PM)
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Was much closer to 350 before the last frame was added...
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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Quote:
Aw yes, what to do. You people make me laugh at all the guess work that is going on in this forum. This model says it is going west, this one says it is going east, and this one says it will stall out. Give me a break already. Everyone is looking at all the models for their predictions and end results. To me, I belive that according to "ALL" the models, probally will not make landfall, but come through the Yucatan unscathed. What does that mean? Well, a CAT 4 on the move, perhaps a CAT 5 for a couple more days. If we didn't have models to look at, then we on this forum would have nothing to comment on. It's a crap shoot. Change tracks here, then re-change them here, who knows. Mother nature is the one who knows. Those unfortunate in the path of , may god bless all of you. But Everyone needs to heed the speed.
Hey Philly live through a storm or 2 then shoot craps
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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NHC 11pm disc confirmed what I saw on the wv loop (starting with the 2045Z...before that, you can see the convection did recover from the to become symmetric):
VERY DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR...
SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE...AND INDEED THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST 6 HR
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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A little off post but got ot comment on this
Watching the Weather Channel Jeff Morrow was interviewing a resident there I belive he was on the West Coast of FLA and he said that he moved there 3 years ago, and ask the residents there how often this particular area gets hit by a hurricane, the longtime resident said at least every 40 years, but the 3 year resident said now it seems that we are getting them every 40 minutes now. Just cracked me up.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Yeah I know Im just frustrated a little! Sorry for that.. When do you think it will be a confident forecast? Im asking within 200 miles? Ive heard literally a 650 mile difference.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
Was much closer to 350 before the last frame was added...
Who is in charge of making this image? This is different than HPC at 11pm so I'm curious..
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