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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Kyle goes for 6th place
      #6062 - Wed Oct 09 2002 11:18 PM

The NHC is to the point now that their singing Bee Gee's songs and seeing drum-playing bunnies in their sleep. Is this what the world is coming to?

At 5am Kyle becomes the 6th longest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin. We here in Jacksonville (at least myself) will stand outside and brave his powerfull, leaf-bending, 25 MPH winds to welcome him ashore if he decides to do it here in lovely NE Florida. I will be truely in awe if would bring us some much-needed rain, and some relief to the summer that just won't end. There is no need for him to go north and pound all those unsuspecting poor souls in Georgia, as I know they could not be nearly as prepared as we are here in Jacksonville.

Thunder Storm Kyle continues to show repeated powerful bursts of convection that should provide more than enough energy to maintain his leaf-bending 25MPH winds. It will be interesting to see what he does when he gets into the true gulf stream waters and rides the coast for a while, for the air is not nearly as dry up here. If the NHC starts playing the Rocky tune, I will more than likely change my tune.

My 11pm update:
50% Kyle makes TS
100% Kyle maintains TD
0% Kyle makes hurricane
25% Kyle makes landfall in my backyard
0% I make a trip to Home Depot

Joe in JAX


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Stormy days
Unregistered




Kyle
      #6063 - Thu Oct 10 2002 12:18 AM

Will I get my golf game in on Friday?
I'm in Central Florida.
Hey, I believe in the Kennedy Space Center Storm Shield.
It has worked for years and years and years.



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Inland NC
Unregistered




Re: Kyle
      #6064 - Thu Oct 10 2002 12:23 AM

Has anyone else noticed the rotation near eastern Cuba? Does anyone know what the likelyhood of development there?

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Steveunplugged
Unregistered




Kyle...
      #6065 - Thu Oct 10 2002 12:31 AM

Actually hasn't looked better on IR in at least 48 hours. Does anyone disagree with NHC's forecast track (11pm) as much as I do? NOGAPS is the only model talking quick recurvature, but that's actually on the Peninsula. It's not going to turn out that way. I'm going with a 15% chance of seeing some precip from Kyle before he's outta here. I still like my dual landfall scenario in the same spots.

Oh yeah. Little note in Isidore. Remember when he was near the Isle of Youth and I said that the historical tracks were all going to be off and that Isidore would be making his own track? Final writeup is availble at the NWS BR/NO home page.

Steve


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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Kyle...
      #6066 - Thu Oct 10 2002 07:55 AM

looking fine this AM, TS Sometime today?

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Kyle...
      #6067 - Thu Oct 10 2002 08:44 AM

Expect tropical storm watch or warning to go up along the east coast of Florida somewhere. Kyle is trying to crank. Convection quickly building over the center; warm GS waters. H'es steeping up....wil he step out and make the hard right turn??? BTW, models this morning are showing the western caribbean developing low pressure in 120 hours. Need to watch this area!! MM5-135 has a developing hurricane over, you guessed it, Western Cuba, wanting to come NNE. First Kyle though. If he wraps tighter and stays on his course too much longer (260 - 270) he'll make landfall in northern Brevard county. If he makes the turn, then up towards St. Augustine/JAX. Interesting to watch, he's blowing up big time with convection, and in just the past 4 hours. Cheers!! Steve H.

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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
Re: Kyle...
      #6068 - Thu Oct 10 2002 08:46 AM

I don't know; I think it's going to be pretty iffy for Kyle to make it back to a Tropical Storm today. Looking at the water vapor image, he's pretty much surrounded by dryer air in the direction that he currently wants to go, so I think it's going to be difficult for him to get much more convection. I'm with joepub1; watch the Jaguars on TV, run out for beer but no need for plywood.

Chris


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Richard
Unregistered




Kyle
      #6069 - Thu Oct 10 2002 09:14 AM

I stepped away from the computer for 2 hours and this thing is exploding. WATCH OUT!!! Kyle has done many unexpected things already!!!

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
kyle, day 20
      #6070 - Thu Oct 10 2002 09:24 AM

getting pretty far up the list for active storms.. if kyle begins recurving offshore it could be around for a few more days. convection this morning is back to a degree where kyle wont be dissipating, and may start to reintensify. as kyle curves northward and phases in ahead of an approaching shortwave, there could very will be baroclinic deepening. i'd say chances are better than even that kyle reintensifies to a tropical storm.
track is tricky, as if the storm continues westward much longer it will run over land and not reintensify. the majority of model turns kyle offshore, quite close to the space coast, and keeps the center within 25-50 miles of the ne florida and georgia coasts.. taking it inland between hilton head and cape romain in about 48hr. have a feeling we may get t.s. watches posted in this area during the next couple of advisories. there is enough convection back to term it a 'partial CDO'.. as kyle slows down and recurves this will likely increase in coverage. we get recon in this afternoon to tell us for certain, but i'd be willing to bet the storm is strengthening. call right now: tropical storm conditions near the coast from daytona to myrtle beach during the next 72hr.
HF 1324z10october


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
oh come on now...get a grip...
      #6071 - Thu Oct 10 2002 09:49 AM

Its not exactly exploding.. its alive.. it's kicking but its not nearly exploding.. Kyle and its constant misplaced covective blob is alive and well and not dying.

Think the front will catch it and hope it and the front live happily ever after and it hits land with a name..

All this work for nothing would be depressing.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Bill
Unregistered




TS Watch issued for Florida east Coast
      #6072 - Thu Oct 10 2002 10:42 AM

1100 10/10-

Cocoa Bch to Brunswick. Official forcast only takes Kyle to 35 mph, but they are hedging their bets.

Can the Rocky theme be far behind?

IHS,

Bill


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Kyle on radar
      #6073 - Thu Oct 10 2002 10:45 AM

CAn see first of the bands that are so visible on the visible now coming onshore ahead of Kyle's center on radar.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
TS watch.. lol always loved Kyle
      #6074 - Thu Oct 10 2002 10:54 AM

Sort of the type of the kid that hung down at the end of the block always waving hello, stopping for a minute to say hello, watching with a mischevous smile that sort of hinted of things promised, just maybe... what a riot. Just won't die. Sort of like that kid song.. And, the cat came back, each and every day..

Well.. seems he's getting awful close and the wv loop makes it hard to believe he'll pull back just before landfall and swirl at sea a bit more..

Either way on TWC IR it does show its best face.. first time in days it has looked so good on IR. Have to tell you.. looks like a tropical storm on WV.

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large_animated.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Kyle...
      #6075 - Thu Oct 10 2002 11:15 AM

Good call steve-o!

IHS,

Bill


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Kyle...
      #6078 - Thu Oct 10 2002 12:09 PM

Remember everyone along the mid central and south florida coastline when you get those clouds and possible rain from Kyle to the north it is NOT Kyle..NOT the CDO but it is called Cirrus Blow off. That's what they called it on TWC this morning and since that "cirrus blow off" has often been there and at times blown up into tstorms I don't want anyone screaming they got Kyle when it was just that cirrus blow off stuff.



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Brett
Unregistered




Re: Kyle...
      #6079 - Thu Oct 10 2002 12:21 PM

/agree Lois. Last images are showing another blowup to the east of the center, and some banding to the NW near the Florida coast, but still very exposed, rapidly moving center. All the clouds and dying showers to the south are just blowoff, like Lois said. The kicker? This thing is not going to hit Florida...and my prediction? It goes back out to sea. Hahaha. Would that not be soo appropriate for this storm? I am watching the western carrib. as well this weekend. Something is gonna brew down there. And what about the tail of the front coming off Texas? The waters too churned up there?

A poster before also mentioned a swirl near Cuba....I am noticing one as well...near Jamaica. Anyone else lookin'? And some of the models are having the wave comin off Africa develop as well....

Could be a busy week next week.

Brett
Miami


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kyle
Unregistered




Re: Kyle
      #6227 - Thu Nov 14 2002 12:50 PM

kyle is my name!!!!

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