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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
Kyle
      #6042 - Wed Oct 09 2002 10:19 AM

That Kyle will not go away! Now Tropical Depression Kyle is heading towards the Florida east coast. I don't think Kyle with get any stronger than a Tropical Storm before landfall, but we still need to watch it because Kyle has a history of doing his own thing.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [jc]


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Volusia Mike
Unregistered




Re: Kyle
      #6043 - Wed Oct 09 2002 10:55 AM

After looking at the sats this morning, I agree with an earlier comment that he may be renamed "shower Kyle." Almost no convection.

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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
Re: Kyle
      #6044 - Wed Oct 09 2002 01:42 PM

Yeah, I just looked at the images, and what miniscule convection there is isn't very organized. I'll be surprised if Kyle gets above Tropical Storm strength (if even that) before getting to Florida. The question remains, though, as to if Kyle can hold it together as a system and make it into the Gulf. If he does, will he strengthen to a Cat 5 and head towards Mobile?

It's been overcast and actually a bit hazy here all day (not associated with Kyle). I figure it's probably going to be a grey weekend in Jacksonville, but that's okay as: 1) I've got studying to do and would be inside all weekend anyway; 2) the Jaguars are on the road and the weather here won't affect their winning.

Chris


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Kyle
      #6045 - Wed Oct 09 2002 02:31 PM

kyle should reach the east coast of florida, probably between melbourne and daytona, early friday. of course this is highly questionable.... since the NHC has mentioned that it might downgrade kyle to a remnant low this afternoon. convection would have to try and come back pretty soon, time is short.
if i told you prior to the season that two tropical systems would affect the east coast of florida, most of you would probably have pictured more than edouard and kyle, eh?
note: bastardi is still online and free (yaaay!), and has been speaking of west caribbean development late in the weekend or early next week. got me looking, at least.
HF 1830z09october


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no storms here
Unregistered




Kyle's Folly
      #6046 - Wed Oct 09 2002 02:39 PM

chris in Jax,
Thanks for the Chuckle!!!

Probably won't even get any rain out of Kyle.

The Central and South Florida have had our anti storm force field up all season. Lived in Central Florida many many years. Only real storm to ever come through here was Donna. But, they're fun to track here in the no storm zone.

Go Buc's


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Kyle
      #6047 - Wed Oct 09 2002 06:04 PM

The NHC refuses to put the dagger into Kyle. He still makes me believe that, as bad as he looks, that he might still have just a little bit of juice left in him. I predict this based only on the fact that the infrared photo's at 5:30 showed a flash of convection right on the center. So I look at it this way: he'll be near or on Jacksonville by friday, very warm and undisturbed water, front stalled just to the north of him, Jags out of town.
33% chance he regain's TS
50% chance he remain's a TD
80% chance he causes enough weather to mess up my drive to or from, or both, work.
100% chance his hurricane days are over.
100% chance I will not be going to the Home Depot anytime soon.

Joe in JAX


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Kyle
      #6048 - Wed Oct 09 2002 07:21 PM

As of 7:15 pm, I, joepub1, declare the Kyle has reformed into Thunder Storm Kyle. He still has a heartbeat, ladies and gentlemen.

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Kyle
      #6049 - Wed Oct 09 2002 07:32 PM

Kyle is trying to make a comeback, but the question is the amount of time he has left. He is moving quickly WSW and may not have a lot of time to get this act together. The clouds are thickening some and there is a small area of moderate convection that has been expanding just east of the LLC. Kyle could really take a strong swing at becoming a minimal TS again if more convection develops. I said yesterday a moderate TS to minimal hurricane at landfall because I thought the convection would actually persist, but this hasn't occured as I had expected. Florida can expect breezy conditions with Kyle. If he redevelops more convection, very heavy rainfall in large amounts would be possible. Not a threatening situation unless a big intensification phase gets underway. The air is likely to dry and stable for that too occur.

Joe B. (wishcaster at times) will be watching the W. Caribbean next week for development of a hybrid storm. E GOM would be likely target for any system, but I won't say much about this until a low cuts off of a frontal tail and I see semi-favorable conditions. All of this may be occuring by the time I get home from vacation (Thursday or Friday).

TS/STS Marco threatening Florida by late next week? Lets throw this idea around some.

I'll add this: We also need to see pressure falls in order to see windspeeds increase with Kyle. That could an inhibiting factor.

Kevin

Edited by Kevin (Wed Oct 09 2002 07:36 PM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Kyle
      #6050 - Wed Oct 09 2002 07:33 PM

I agree Joe on the upgrade back to Thunderstorm Kyle, I originally downgraded it at 5 am to Shower Kyle. It does have A Thunderstorm back.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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STUART DAVE
Unregistered




Re:I FOUND IT!
      #6051 - Wed Oct 09 2002 07:36 PM

2 days ago I was warned of a tropical storm headed for my area. Tonight as I began my preperations to weather this storm , the first in our area in a number of years I began to search the satellites and low and behold there it was like a beacon in the Atlantic preparing to bring flooding rains and high winds to our area just as those highly accurate meteorologists in West palm Beach have been saying. I then turned to the forecast track and once again found that I would miss this devastating weather event . In hopes there was an error I turned to Bastardi- no updates nor warnings were noted. I then checked Millenium and found no hope for a resurrection there. East coast tropical had nothing either . I guess I'll head to bed early tonight but with a plan to check on that little beacon later, You just never know.

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STUART DAVE
Unregistered




Re:I FOUND IT!
      #6052 - Wed Oct 09 2002 07:37 PM

2 days ago I was warned of a tropical storm headed for my area. Tonight as I began my preperations to weather this storm , the first in our area in a number of years I began to search the satellites and low and behold there it was like a beacon in the Atlantic preparing to bring flooding rains and high winds to our area just as those highly accurate meteorologists in West palm Beach have been saying. I then turned to the forecast track and once again found that I would miss this devastating weather event once again. In hopes there was an error I turned to Bastardi- no updates nor warnings were noted. I then checked Millenium and found no hope for a resurrection there. East coast tropical had nothing either . I guess I'll head to bed early tonight but with a plan to check on that little beacon later, You just never know.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
KYLE
      #6053 - Wed Oct 09 2002 07:49 PM

Buoy 120 miles east of Cape Canaveral has sustained winds at 18 knots gusting to 21 knots. Waves are 8 feet and water temperature is 83 degrees. Something is actually out there.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Stuart Dave
Unregistered




Re: Kyle
      #6054 - Wed Oct 09 2002 08:04 PM

Although my eyes have begun to tire I have learned from satellite pictures over the last hour that Kyle has doubled itself in convection. As this continues through tommorrow Kyle will have grown to a monster category 5 storm covering an area 600 miles in diameter. I'll be watching closely for the first evacuation orders for the whole east coast of Florida by midnight and fully expect to be wakened out of my sleep by police sirens warning me to get out of the state as they drive thru the neighborhoods . Sorry for the double post earlier but I bet some people began to come back to the site when they saw all the new posts becoming suspicious that a big event is coming..

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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Kyle
      #6055 - Wed Oct 09 2002 08:21 PM

Looks like Kyles thunderstorm is showing up on Melbournes Long Range radar loop. Might get a trace of rain from him after its all over.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
interesting
      #6056 - Wed Oct 09 2002 08:33 PM

either this is a good fake or the rebuilding trend has started. kyle has a couple more thunderstorm cells starting on the cloud bands at this time. might make it interesting after all.
HF 0032z10october


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: interesting
      #6057 - Wed Oct 09 2002 08:52 PM

I'm begining to think Thunder Storm Kyle has had his feelings hurt by those of us in Florida. Thunder Storm Kyle is starting to show a little convection to his northwest, of all places, much like Lili did after she was called a wave by the NHC. Could we end up with a weather maker afterall?

Edited by joepub1 (Wed Oct 09 2002 08:53 PM)


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Dan
Unregistered




Re: Kyle
      #6058 - Wed Oct 09 2002 08:53 PM

...and I said that "Thunderstorm" Kyle would come right over my house in Longwood, FL (NW of Orlando). Judging from the latest sat pix, I may be in for a little more than that. He won't make it to TS though.

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Dave Stuart
Unregistered




Re: Kyle
      #6059 - Wed Oct 09 2002 09:09 PM

A green spot has developed on the NRL site indicative of rapid stregthening beginning. I expect renaming and upgrading to hurricane status by the 11pm advisory. It may also be relocating as the green spot is below 28 degrees

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Dan-Longwood
Unregistered




Re: Kyle
      #6060 - Wed Oct 09 2002 09:54 PM

C'mon Dave Stuart - Hurricane by 11:00 pm. You have got to be kidding????

I just saw the latest at NRL (0109Z on 10/10) and I see some strengthening but this dog is nothing still. Not enough room to expode into a 'cane.


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Kyle
      #6061 - Wed Oct 09 2002 11:01 PM

That was Stuart's attempt at sarcasm. Never fear though, since Kyle is refiring the Cape Canaveral/KSC area has put up the Florida storm deflector shield, and guidance now has him turning NW and avoiding a landfall in Florida....imagine that. Now it probably will reach hurricane status. Seriously though, Kyle is moving a bit faster than the NHC is showing on the 11pm advisory, and it's actually amazing that he's firing convection in such dry air...it's coming right off the warm water. He may make it to 45 knots befoe approaching the east coast, but probably the east coast of GA. Cheers! Steve H.

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