Steve H.
Unregistered
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Hey Ed D., good to hear you're recovering nicely, and hope you get home soon. Yeah, I've been debating whether or not the Real area of Low pressure will come north yet or not. Thought the idea the had this morning was good, but looking at the satellite pix tonight, I'm wondering if most of this system will get dragged north and get wrapped eventually into the storm of the Carolinas. Pressures are not very low where the area of concern is, but perhaps they are falling futher north bbetween NE Honduras and Jamaica. Models are having a tough time with this, and I think the 18Z can be thrown out as it has this low too far east IMO. This one has me stumped right now, but if we get a Marco down there then maybe we'll get some better model output. There's an awful lot of real estate between Honduras and the Carolinas so a lot can happen. Earlier runs shifted from keeping these systems separate, to merging them. Still a blurry picture. Trouble with systems like this is that they can surprise you. If the system is actually taking shape SW of Jamaica and moving NNW, and if it gets a chance to intensify more than expected with the rapid movement of the AVN et el, this could get dicey for South Florida. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Cheers!!
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Big burst of convection around 17 and 80. Looks like it is continuing to become better organized . There is a lot that can play into the future movement of the storm, the models has the storm moving either up the West or East coast of Fl. some has the storm clipping S.Fl. and going up E Coast or missing Fl. all together.Hopefully the next few model runs will give us more to go on. My patience is starting to run real thin, it is nearing the end of the season and I haven't even felt a brisk breeze where I live.
Toni
HOW BOUT THOSE BUCS, 5-1 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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lots of convection going off where the broad center of the disturbance is located, hard to tell exactly what is down there. i'm fairly confident that this is a depression, and will probably be a tropical storm on recon, if sat presentation and obs ahead of the system dont have it there by midday tomorrow. also, seems to be progressing northward at enough speed so that i doubt it will fail to phase in ahead of the soon to be coastal low. model consensus still east of florida, but the ones with the best initializations tend to take it very close by monroe dade broward and palm beach counties. should get some weather out of this, at least. the further north it gets, the more shear will impact the system (though baroclinic deepening may counterbalance). short term intensification will determine whether this is a gusty tropical storm or a deepening hurricane when it reaches cuba on tuesday, the florida straits tuesday afternoon, and blasts up by hatteras on wednesday. probably not going to do any purely tropical deepening north of 25N, and it should be up there in just over 36 hours.
for anybody of you who like to ponder things that may happen down the road, the basic setup which has given us this soon-to-be marco is going to persist through next week, and maybe spin off something else by next weekend.
HF 0428z14october
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Unreal game..never rely on field goals. Again i say that, well winning by one is nice but Denver should have scored 7 on one of those earlier possessions and they would have beat us..
Either way.. looking at loops and looks like Marco is going to be something to deal with..
Have to see what they say tomorrow but looks still like Miami would be left of the current track..will see soon.
Great game.. great tropical fun going on here..see if the system is playing peek a boo with the hurricane hunters. Interesting to see what they say at five am..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Low pressure out there, but no classified system yet. Winds NW at Kingston, Jamaica shows system to it's SW. Big day to watch system today. Most models take system just east of Miami(Football Capital Of The USA - Fins and Canes Both #1 in the Country ). Miami mentions possibility of 3-5" of rain and severe weather for tomorrow. We shall see.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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I have to get off to work real quick, but I'm going to say this is not Marco, not enough time before cold front picks it up, this is a fall noreaster. Of course, now I won't know until tonight, so everyone else kep an eye on it for me, OK?
Joe in JAX
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN (AL142002) ON 20021014 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
021014 1200 021015 0000 021015 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 82.9W 19.0N 82.9W 21.3N 81.7W
BAMM 17.3N 82.9W 18.7N 83.1W 20.6N 82.1W
A98E 17.3N 82.9W 19.1N 83.0W 20.5N 82.1W
LBAR 17.3N 82.9W 19.2N 82.9W 21.5N 82.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
021016 0000 021016 1200 021017 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.2N 79.1W 27.9N 75.7W 37.5N 66.7W
BAMM 23.0N 79.9W 25.8N 76.7W 33.1N 69.0W
A98E 22.1N 80.6W 24.1N 78.7W 28.1N 74.7W
LBAR 23.9N 80.9W 26.7N 79.1W 35.2N 71.0W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 52KTS
DSHP 39KTS 45KTS 46KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 82.9W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 82.5W DIRM12 = 349DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 82.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Bill
Unregistered
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IHS,
Bill
WONT41 KNHC 141259
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
855 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2002
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE
THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES WILL INITIATED
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN AT 11 AM EDT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON ITS EXACT LOCATION AND
INTENSITY.
FORECASTER STEWART
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Let the Speculations, ruminations, whining and Wowing begin!
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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meowmix12
Unregistered
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it looks like a cat4 to me and going to my house, that is my prediction
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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this will be a tropical storm upon recon. convectively very healthy, apparently stacked, over the nw caribbean in october with a classic synoptic config.
probably going to reach hurricane, but things become iffy past cuba. still not thinking on a direct hit for southern florida, but a close enough call to give plenty of rain and wind. beyond there the storm begins transitioning into an system through absorption... looks like it is going too slow to phase in to a single superbomb. think the most likely scenario is the storm phases in east of georgia, as the low is deepening and moving northward near hatteras on wednesday.. the low peaks in intensity late thu/early friday as it passes new jersey and new england.. occluding by the time it reaches maine late on the 17th.
bastardi outlines three scenarios that various models have been harping on, factoring in his considerations for the warm water off the northeast. i'm pretty much with his absorption option, but not quite at its worst.
think we get at least one more after this one. bastardi saying the season is over. not ready to buy that.
HF 1442z14october
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Just when you stop paying attention to the weather look what happens. So anyone think this could be another Irene type situation?
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Richie at work
Unregistered
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Will we be having another Irene in South Florida 3 years to the exact day tomorrow?
Wxman Richie
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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HF all that you say is probably correct...except for the fact that the baroclinic low is phasing now south of Louisiana...I suspect the storm that develops south of Cuba will go more ene after the next 12 hours or so...that is a pretty strong and deep trough to its west and this thing will not become strong enough to neutralize the pretrough upper winds from pushing it quickly to the NE...I don't see this storm being the east coast storm at all...EDS.
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doug
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Guess the movement ultimately depends on how deep the trough to the west digs. Stewart's concern is that the flow may back to the SSW, giving Marco a chance to approach the Florida peninsula a bit further west than anticipatedwhile causing less shear across him. Anyone notice a low forming just east of Miami? Check out vis loop. Winds here in Melbourne are out of the NNE with heavy rain. CHeers!!
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Richie at work
Unregistered
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Upper air outflow looking much better. This will be a storm very soon and may intensify more rapidly.
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Bill
Unregistered
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Well, the forcast is already off..went from moving N at 12mph in the 11 am advisory to stationary and meandering 3 hrs later. !!
IHS,
Bill
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Stuart Dave
Unregistered
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For residents of So Florida , let's not get all excited as a careful review by me of all forecasters and models have this storm (if it becomes one) avoiding the area. Bastardi hints at it coming closer but that is only because he badly needs a So Fl hit to prove himself right for the year. So Floridians should be paying more attention to the upcoming cold front as temps in the 60's this time of year are unusual and very welcome. The chances of the front coming thru are 100% , finally a sure thing for us down here.
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matty
Unregistered
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those 60's are only overnight lows not daytime lows. 60's at night isnt an uncommon thing for florida in oct.
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sj7611
Unregistered
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LLC appears exposed on the west side of the convection.Appears to be moving west in the last few loops.
Anyone think it stays south of the front and ends up in the GOM?
Steve
South Florida
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