GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
Accuweather relies on Global models and private weather contractors as well. They would not be able to sell their product if they did not offer something different than the publicly funded . But, the accuracy is always up to the mother nature.
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
|
|
and if you look at those models MissBecky pointed out, the midline is the same as the forecast track
Seems silly to concentrate on any one model or line
|
tashina
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: Austin, TX
|
|
Was just listening to Chad on CNN. He was saying that the storm will weaken over land, strengthen over water. That part I understand. Then he said right now it's half-on, half-off. I'm not sure if he's talking about the eye or the whole hurricane. Just wondering, what is considered on land as far as weakening. Does the eye have to be onshore? If it's sitting like it is currently with the eye right offshore - say it does this for 24 hours. Is that a position that will cause it to strengthen or weaken?
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
Could very welll be the overplaying the reintensification. It has been known to spin things up too quickly. However, if mos t of the inner core remains intact, I am not going to rule out that such a reintensification is possible. Just unlikely that it gets up that much, IMHO.
--------------------
Jim
|
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
|
|
J Bastardi likes to be a maverick in some ways --- but don't discount his opinion. HE likes to be aggressive and make a forecast before everyone else --- sometimes they are seemingly prescient and sometimes way off --remember back to Nate earlier this year.
One way to think about it is that reviews multiple computer models, the most recent data from observations and tries to pull out the best consensus -- when the models make a big jump they usually split the difference between the new data and their last forecast.
If Accuweather sees a jump, the next forecast goes with the jump --all the way.
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
|
|
It will still weaken as much of the circulation (the western side) will be over land. Physics - friction.
--------------------
Michael
PWS
|
bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
|
|
Quote:
If you ask me it's slim to none this thing is going into the Yucatan.. back to preparing for (another) direct hit from a major 'cane here in Port Charlotte
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T2/AVN_loop.html
Sure looks like the center of the eye is just about on land only 1 hr 40 minutes later. remind me never to make forecasts
|
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
|
|
Well the GDFL has never been real good with Str of the system.To me the GDFL looks like it has it going to FT Myers is that correct? looks like it to me.
|
dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
|
|
It looks to be elongating . Is this from shearing or interaction with land?
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
***ALL MANATEE COUNTY RESIDENTS***
Tune to Channel 20...they have local information for Manatee County on there inlcuding info about incorrect evac maps printed in todays Bradenton Herald. Channel 20......all the info you need for Manatee County.
Mods can delete this if they choose, but please allow for a little while so others can see. Thank You!
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
komi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
|
|
Well, i think all computer models will give us more acurate models after Wima get offsore ... Until now, and for now, is all just prediction after some what not going to happen - Yucatan landfall ...
This mean, we have to wait until tomorrow ...
|
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
|
|
Not so much friction in low lying areas like the Yucatan - More the loss of ability to extract energy from water. It is the heat from the warm ocean water evaporating that gets released when the water rises in the exceptionally high cloud tops of a warm core storm that drives the engine. If a big chunk of the circulation sucking in the warm wet air is over land it is cutting off that fraction of its fuel.
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
MISS BECKY - I checked frame 4 on spaghetti models and as of 1800 UTC on the 21st, today, the only model significantly north is LBAR. The others are still at Ft. Myers or Southward....Could it be they are further north than previous when they were extreme south fla, like Naples and southward? Perhaps the shift north is from that point to Ft. Myers. I could be wrong. Please correct me!!!!
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
|
|
Let me know if these are the steering currents for this storm.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
I am NO GOOD at posting links so if it does not come up, someone please give me instructions on how to do this.
Looks like the storm is practically squeezed between 2 pressure systems which will allow it to move in a more North direction... I am sooo untrained, please correct me if I am wrong:)
Christine,
St. Pete :shocked 
|
bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
|
|
11 appears to be out at wunderground already
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524.html
|
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
|
|
Also take a look at the core of winds the predicts -- all basically S of the center for the destructive winds on the present run
My only point is that it is not necessarily where the center hits that is the worst of the storm -- when travelling ENE and moving forward fairly rapidly -- as is predicted to be at Fl landfall-- the worst of the storm will be SE eyewall.
|
MissBecky
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
|
|
Quote:
MISS BECKY - I checked frame 4 on spaghetti models and as of 1800 UTC on the 21st, today, the only model significantly north is LBAR. The others are still at Ft. Myers or Southward....Could it be they are further north than previous when they were extreme south fla, like Naples and southward? Perhaps the shift north is from that point to Ft. Myers. I could be wrong. Please correct me!!!!
Yes, that is exactly what I have seen. Since I live in Ft. Myers, I have been watching closely over the past few days to see how close the overall guidance has come to my location. For the past two days most of the models were pointing southward, to Naples and Collier County. Beginning today I began to see more of a trend to move northward. But that is just my interpretation of what I'm seeing...standard disclaimer applies, I am not a met.
|
willw
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
|
|
Quote:
11 appears to be out at wunderground already
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524.html
oddly even though the computer models and the last track was above where it was before... they have it below look at where it crosses below lake o..... i don't get their forcasting i don't. heh everything is going north and they go south more? confusing
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Quote:
Let me know if these are the steering currents for this storm.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
Looks like the storm is practically squeezed between 2 pressure systems which will allow it to move in a more North direction... I am sooo untrained, please correct me if I am wrong:)
Christine,
Use this for ...deeper central pressure.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html
|
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
|
|
For large storms like steering is mostly the upper atmospheric winds -- The storm itself commandeers the lower surface levels -- which makes it bad for us who have to live on the surface.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
