JMII
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
|
|
Quote:
It looks to be elongating . Is this from shearing or interaction with land?
I noticed this too, I think it's a combination of shear and the squeeze play between the two high pressure areas the storm has been stuck in between for the last two days. This explains both the slow motion and excellent outflow. Now on IR image you can clearly see the western side of storm lossing it's colder cloud tops - I assume this is from interaction with the land. Hopefully this is start of the system lossing some it's power.
I was very shocked to hear the local mets forecasting a weaker storm, they almost never do that for fear of people letting down thier guard. All local info I've heard says: Cat 1, Monday afternoon landfall, near Ft. Myers, rapid NE motion across the state, right over Lake O. Effects to be very strong winds in SE quad because the hurricane force winds will be compounded by the forward speed of the storm (25+ mph). Also expect very wet conditions to the N of the track due to the interaction with the cold front coming down. I have no seen alot of info on this aspect, but people to the north should take note, your winds may be lighter but it's really going to drop alot of rain in a short period of time.
--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
|
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
|
|
2 points to think about future track --
1) As several recent posts have noted with just a tiny change in direction and change in speed of only 1 or 2 mph s stay oveer the Yucatan could go from 6 or 7 hours to 17 or 18 --- that can translate into dramatic differences in storm strength in GOM. In terms of track - a stronger storm is more likely to push more N
2) The time and point the storm kind of re-initializes in the GOM will be very interesting because that right now is roughly the boundary of W steering flow --- and again small changes in the near future can translate to many miles down the road at US landfall
|
3rdGenFlaNative
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 8
Loc: Polk County, FL
|
|
Long time lurker, first time poster here. Can't tell you all how much I appreciate everyone here at this forum. I've been monitoring since mid-season last year (and what a year it was!). Feel like I've learned SO MUCH, and it's only made me eager for more info. In my quest to educate myself on this subject however, I just can’t seem to decipher all the numbers on some of the reports and technical images. Many of the contributors to this forum seem to have a solid working knowledge of the field, and I feel like I’m missing out on some of the data being used to form your opinions. Is anyone aware of a good, well-rounded source (preferably online) that provides basic explanation and instruction in understanding some of the more intricate tools? I’ve poked around on this site, and gathered much useful information, but haven’t found exactly what I’m looking for. If it is here and I’ve missed it, please forgive me, and thank you for all the help!
I’m in Lakeland with husband & kids, have a father in a mobile home in Lake Wales, and a nephew in Port Charlotte. We all got our fill of hurricanes last year and, as you can imagine, are watching closely. We are as prepared as we can be, but this waiting is maddening! And it seems that whatever we might hope for in sparing still-shellshocked Floridians from more trauma only causes even greater devastation to someone else! I’m very concerned for our neighbors in Cozumel. Can’t get them off my mind.
Hurricane watching is most definitely addictive, IF you can handle the emotional roller-coaster! It's difficult to reconcile all the feelings you experience as you watch these storms develop – the beauty and thrill of watching nature at it’s most powerful, coupled with the anxiety and concern that build when you realize that soon someone’s life (maybe yours or someone you love!) will be forever changed.
--------------------
28.0 N 81.9 W
Inland Tropical Storm Warning
Tornado Watch
Began my entrance into this world during Hurricane Dora, 1964 - Have since experienced effects from: David ('79) - Irene ('99) - Charley, Frances, and Jeanne ('04)
|
lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
|
|
the eye is shrinking and becoming ragged
link
link 2
|
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
|
|
Good place to start is at website
Hurricane Hunter data translation can be found here
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/recco.htm
Edited by satellite steve (Sat Oct 22 2005 03:15 AM)
|
jjj
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 4
|
|
I believe the has been a joke all afternoon. They better get their people out of Key West and head north if they want a story. The new strike probabilities for Cedar Key are as great as that of Key West. Dr. Steve Lyons at 4:00 PM had this storm over the peninsula of Mexico for an amazing 36 hours and all but reaching south Florida as a cat 1 at best. This storm will be in the GOM before noon tomorrow and headed in the direction of Sarasota/Tampa if not further North as a cat 2 or 3. I am not a met (most of them have been clueless also) but I am a 47 year native of Florida and a long time mariner. I was raised reading a radar and know that this spinner will defy the odds. was Tampa's storm 24 hours out and ended up in Punta Gorda. was headed into Houston and ended up on the East Texas border. will keep the "experts" guessing all the way to the end. And when it is over, and she goes everywhere but where they had thought, the Monday morning quarterbacking will begin.....
|
Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
|
|
11:00 discussion finaly out
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/220259.shtml
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005
Edited by Multi-Decadal Signal (Sat Oct 22 2005 03:23 AM)
|
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
|
|
More importantly notice bands of heavy convection have decreased dramatically in all quadrants
|
dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
|
|
dont think it is shrinking as much as beginning to fill in. Sign of weakening.
|
LSUFAN
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 3
|
|
All the forecasts are so focused on the westerlies taking to Florida. Is there any chance at all of the westerlies not doing this and continuing north/northwest?
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Quote:
11:00 discussion finaly out
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS FLORIDA...ALL
INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF AND MAKE APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS.
Notice He said " The Florida Peninsula "
Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 22 2005 03:24 AM)
|
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
|
|
I don't think focuses on any particular site 72 hours out -- The media certainly gets much more 'juice' out of a landfall in a major city
Biggest issue is logistics -- evacuating a major city -- Miami, Houston, NO is much more exciting to the media and unfortunately occasionally they do get hit and damage is more intense due to more people being in harms way
|
3rdGenFlaNative
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 8
Loc: Polk County, FL
|
|
I checked out that link, Satellite Steve - exactly what I was looking for. Thanks so much. Hopefully the distraction will make the time pass faster until decides to get moving.
--------------------
28.0 N 81.9 W
Inland Tropical Storm Warning
Tornado Watch
Began my entrance into this world during Hurricane Dora, 1964 - Have since experienced effects from: David ('79) - Irene ('99) - Charley, Frances, and Jeanne ('04)
|
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
|
|
No not really
As soon as gets far enough N all the flow is W to E now and basic physics is going to keep pushing her N into this stream
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html
|
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 89
|
|
Quote:
I believe the has been a joke all afternoon. They better get their people out of Key West and head north if they want a story. The new strike probabilities for Cedar Key are as great as that of Key West. Dr. Steve Lyons at 4:00 PM had this storm over the peninsula of Mexico for an amazing 36 hours and all but reaching south Florida as a cat 1 at best. This storm will be in the GOM before noon tomorrow and headed in the direction of Sarasota/Tampa if not further North as a cat 2 or 3. I am not a met (most of them have been clueless also) but I am a 47 year native of Florida and a long time mariner. I was raised reading a radar and know that this spinner will defy the odds. was Tampa's storm 24 hours out and ended up in Punta Gorda. was headed into Houston and ended up on the East Texas border. will keep the "experts" guessing all the way to the end. And when it is over, and she goes everywhere but where they had thought, the Monday morning quarterbacking will begin.....
All i can say about this post is Gotta love snow as its coming early.
|
sara33
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
|
|
Will we get some new model runs soon?
|
lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
|
|
Quote:
Dr. Steve Lyons at 4:00 PM had this storm over the peninsula of Mexico for an amazing 36 hours and all but reaching south Florida as a cat 1 at best.
and so did the .
Weather changes constantly, and they give their best report of what they see at that time, which is why the reports update several times a day.
PS - the called the East Texas landfall at 10AM CDT Thursday the 22nd....1 1/2 days before landfall.
link
but they called a "Houston area" landfall a few 5 days head of time.
link 2
but of course, you're focusing on the cone and not the line......right???? 
|
DeLandT
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 23
Loc: Parrish, FL
|
|
Its nice to finally know what is going to happen. By the way what is the winning lottery ticket numbers for tomorrow night?
|
sara33
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
|
|
WELCOME
I hear what your saying...we'll see. Thanks for posting 
|
pincty
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 31
|
|
Good post Sat. Steve. That little wobble to the South in the last two frames may be enough to keep it in the Yucatan for a while longer. That would be great news for Florida.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
