GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I am no weather forecaster but, I have been looking at the early satellites and the storm looks elongated in the direction of Tampa Bay. I know that we on the west side of Florida and north of Ft Myers have been saved from the effects of the direct hit. But until they tell us this storm is going to Texas I am going to prepare as though it will be a direct hit at CAT 3. As I said last night, unless people start taking down the Halloween decorations, we are going to have a lot of flying pumpkins by Monday night.(plastic ones)
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Okay, that was a cool shot. It almost appears that what may be what's left of an eye is about to exit the northernmost tip of Yucatan soon. I'm not sure or not if there's a new eye trying to form or not.
What I did notice, however, is that if you drew a perfectly straight line from to Chicago, you will see what is tugging her northward. And I cannot see anything (at least on that view) that's going to punt her NE in any big hurry. Notice what's coming in from the west...that may be what punts . If anything, it looks like may have to wait for that system to come along.
Of course, that's just based on what I saw on that one loop. There could be others out there that show a totally different scenario and I could be completely wrong. One thing I sure hope I'm not wrong about is it coming off the coast of the Yucatan. They've had enough already.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Our local weather service made that point exactly. It may be a long monday for many parts of the state.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Colleen, the Cancun radar was just updated and the center of circ is just south of Cancun. Everytime it updates it looks to have gotten smaller.
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yes, there is definitely the threat for tornadoes with these two systems combining. If they are going to issue hurricane watches/warnings somewhere along the coast, expect to see tornado watches go up with them. If anything, it will be an interesting Monday.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Does it appear to anyone else that the water vapor loop is starting to show improved outflow, or do I need a cup of coffee?
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
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Quote:
Yes, there is definitely the threat for tornadoes with these two systems combining. If they are going to issue hurricane watches/warnings somewhere along the coast, expect to see tornado watches go up with them. If anything, it will be an interesting Monday.
The Melbourne AFD stated it clearly for me and I think that this looks like a repeat of the 1993 No Name for those of us north of the eye.
Quote:
SUN...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
FARTHER SOUTH...PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL RESULT IN HIGHS
IN MID 80S. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS THE ADVANCING CYCLONE EXPLOITS THE INHERENT SHEAR ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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You mean the eye looks smaller or the system? Looking at that radar shot, I am simply amazed at how well organized it still looks! Almost looks as if the eastern most edge of the eyewall is over water, but that could be my eyes. I still think it will be close to exiting the coast earlier than thought, if only because it did not cross wnw as predicted earlier. The less land it has to go over, the less disrupted it is....but even so, for the amount of time it HAS spent on land, I'm truly amazed that it hasn't fallen apart. Of course, there aren't really any high mountains in that area, so that could be one reason.
Thanks for the link...awesome radar shot!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Quote:
You mean the eye looks smaller or the system? Looking at that radar shot, I am simply amazed at how well organized it still looks! Almost looks as if the eastern most edge of the eyewall is over water, but that could be my eyes. I still think it will be close to exiting the coast earlier than thought, if only because it did not cross wnw as predicted earlier. The less land it has to go over, the less disrupted it is....but even so, for the amount of time it HAS spent on land, I'm truly amazed that it hasn't fallen apart. Of course, there aren't really any high mountains in that area, so that could be one reason.
Thanks for the link...awesome radar shot!
The circ is getting smaller. In fact it's updated again and it's smaller yet. I have been watching it since 4:30 and it took a jog north but hasn't done much since. It you play the loop and really slow it down you can see it better.
Jackie
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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That's what I'm seeing also. But just to be sure, I am going to have another cup of coffee. Look at the radar shot that's on page 1 of this thread...see what I mean???
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Oh...I didn't see the loop, sorry. Well, if the circulation is getting smaller, than it could be dying over land, which would be nice! On the other hand, it may be able to keep some of its energy with all the water around it. I guess we won't know until later.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Oh wow! I remember that! It was very frightening in that it came at night and was so strong. It did not last long because it was moving so fast. But, if that is a taste of what this could be, All I can say is that for about 30 minutes we had the effects of a CAT 3 or 4 wind field, that left ocean salt all over power wires and they all started shorting out and it was a unholy mess. It was more memorable than the entire hurricane season last year.( in terms of suddeness and sheer wind velocity)
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
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This could be a weather scientist's dream study zone and worse nightmare all at once. Areas to the north getting more rain than areas to the east of the eye.
More damage inland than onshore due to tornadoes.
The potential apparently is there. And the No Name is what came to mind immediately. If the model they showed on WTVT-13 this morning bears out, the worse part of the storm could be the region between Tampa and Port Charlotte as opposed to the usual areas with a landfalling storm.
All I can say about this season is just wow.
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
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It looks like two lows are meeting up with this loop:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
My question, could the low that came in off the Pacific and over Mexico and TX tend to dampen how far the major low from Canada gets south as they meet up? That low from Canada is moving fairly rapidly east (as well as south).
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
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Steve Lyons on said that it appears the center is very close to exiting the Yucatan, bands around and to the east of the center are intensifying...
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Allright...Jackie...I may be losing it...I was just watching Dr. Steve on and he said that the eye is just north and west of Cancun...but that's not what we're seeing on that radar link. Does he have a different source he's looking at??? Or is he not looking at the right place???
As for the No-named storm...I lived in JAX Beach when that happened and it was the scariest thing I've ever been through. We had gusts over 110mph throughout the night, the intracoastal flooded out houses, wires snapped in half and I had a light pole from one of those big travel centers land on my car...with me in it. If that's what we're in for, I might just head down to Naples. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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This view tells it all. For any new viewers, after you get the picture, click on the center and it will enlarge. This shows all the powers in play and it is going to hurt somebody else.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
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Quote:
It looks like two lows are meeting up with this loop:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
My question, could the low that came in off the Pacific and over Mexico and TX tend to dampen how far the major low from Canada gets south as they meet up? That low from Canada is moving fairly rapidly east (as well as south).
Looking at that loop, the last few frames it stops going south. Now, there is a trailing section that is lower down, but not very much. Interesting, but I'm no MET.
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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Sounds like some canine training is in order with a new command - CLOSET! Thanks for the info. We are inland Collier County and I am getting the closet ready.
Collier County Emergency Commission meeting is underway. They are predicting forward speed to escalate to 34mph as it approaches Collier County later on Sunday, with landfall predicted at 4am Monday followed by high tide at about 5:45am (not good). There are concerns about additional surge if the storm moves farther north. They are advising everyone to be secured and in place by Sunday afternoon.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Colleen, I don't get it either. Does he not use the radar? I thought I remember HF or one of the other mets saying use the radar when you can so you can identify the center better. Are we that screwed up? ..LOL! CLARK, HF where are you...lol!
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