willw
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
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north at 2mph 115mph winds. no track change....
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TampaSu
Registered User
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Posts: 6
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Thought I'd introduce myself - now that I've posted. 
I have been lurking here since started. This site has been a great find - I wish I would have found it last year! You all are doing a great job keeping me informed. I do first and foremost follow the , but I like to hear the little details, and the "speculation". I follow Denis Phillips (my local met) but The Weather Channel has officially lost me this time around. It angers me that they have taken Tampa out of the cone (and I've been reading the discussion about this on this board). I think removing the Tampa area out of their cone is putting a largly popluated area at risk because a lot of people follow the weather channel, and ONLY the weather channel. These people may get caught off guard this time!
Thanks for all the great posts, and like all the others here in the Tampa area, I'll continue to "sit and wait" until if/when the time comes to implement our plan.
Volusia Pam - in Port Orange... Hi to you - your area is of interest to me as well because that's where my family will go should we need to leave Tampa. Our house has no interior rooms or closets, and lots of glass. My parents' home in Spruce Creek has a "safe room".
I'm also particularly interested in the discussion regarding the spawn of many tornados. Tornados scare me - my Aunt was killed by a tornado.
Thanks again for all the great posts!
Suzanne
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3rdGenFlaNative
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Polk County, FL
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I must admit, this is the first time in several days that I have that familiar knot in my stomach that appears when conditions begin to point to a serious threat of danger to my area. I knew that the local mets discussing the hurricane colliding with a cold front sounded bizare, but I didn't associate it with No Name '93. Now I am beginning to become very alarmed, and wonder why local media isn't voicing more concern about the possibilities.
Agreeing with previous posters, I consider this site invaluable. If it weren't for the info I've recieved here, and were I relying solely on local mets (which most people I know do), I would relax, cease most preparations that were inconvenient, and go on with my weekend. I sincerely hope that a storm event such as No Name '93 doesn't materialize, because if it does...well let's just hope it doesn't.
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28.0 N 81.9 W
Inland Tropical Storm Warning
Tornado Watch
Began my entrance into this world during Hurricane Dora, 1964 - Have since experienced effects from: David ('79) - Irene ('99) - Charley, Frances, and Jeanne ('04)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Good morning all. Well this is just horrific. Just up (after this week, I needed a night to catch up on sleep!) and just quickly looked at the wv loop. At almost 10am, the center is still rotating just inland between Cozumel and Cancun, with those places still taking a huge hit from the winds and water...plus this track must have been the worst possible track for Cancun and for the lagoon hotel area as far as flooding. There must be rain records being set as well. I am afraid that most of Cozumel must be under some feet of water.
I had posted to someone at Cozumel yesterday morning that they would be taking eyewall winds until just past midnight and could probably go outside by noon today but that is wrong...they'll be getting hit the rest of the day. It's just horrible and I don't even have words to say how devastated that area is, but for certain they won't have any tourist season this year. This devastation will easily be on a par with 's, for both scale and intensity. This just after Stan dumped so much rain in Central America. Truly that area has been hit this year as hard as the US.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
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Quote:
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Well here in St Pete I am only planning on brining in the hanging plants, everything else stays where it is. I honestly do not think the winds are going to be that bad here.
down here in 34202 (bradenton/sarasota) and thinking the same thing... i have a large gas grill out on the lanai with the pool equipment and about 12 plants in clay pots. i know the plants will need to come in, but dont' know about the grill. might do it just to be safe. if this thing shifts just slightly north (and it looks like it could since the storm is ahead of schedule into the GOM) we could have cat 1 or 2 winds, which would suck big time.
Well funky, I just got through lugging everything in at the expense of my neighbors laughter. But I suppose I would rather be laughed at them today than to possibly crying with them later. Maybe it was premature but what the heck I can always haul it all back out.
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc:
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since we seem to be taking a moment to stroke flhurricane.com and those who run and participate on it, I too want to thank you.
While I trust and follow the tracking/guidence/wisdom of the without fail, because they've given me no reason to do otherwise, it is nice to see and read some of the technicalities involved in forecasting a storm.
I guess I'm a geek
There are some folks on here who seem a bit off base or just flat out over-the-top, but the majority seems reasonable and balanced.
Thank you for your forum, and if there is a place to make some sort of financial donation to off-set the costs of operation (hosting/bandwidth/etc...), please let me know and I would be happy to contribute.
All this waiting is making me nuts, but this site has made good time fill as well as filling the blah, blah, blah information you get on TV.
Thanks again
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nandav
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
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On the left side, there is a link that says "Site donations and thanks" .. not a bad reminder to all of us!!
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Look to the left of the screen to make Financial Donations to the Site.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Area Weather Discussion on Hurricane
Palm Beach County Central/South Florida
Use this for supplemental Information along with the official forecast.
Broad trough with vortex low over Great Lakes will drag along . Mid to upper boundary across Vero Beach to Ft Myers...a cold front racing toward Central South Florida for Monday.
The latest on basing on the steering winds from continental Models of the ETA and NGM and analysis. now caught into a blocking wall type effect from the upper westerlies now beginning to pick it up. The motion to the Eastnortheast looks to begin later this afternoon and begin to accererate steadily Sunday and Monday. It looks like drawing a 060 degree line and also considering a mid to upper boudary or front aloft basing on the dewpoint analysis looks to go across a little farther south of the official forecast. The upper frontal boundary is located across Vero Beach to Ft Myers and usually these tropical systems especially this time of year move somewhat ahead of these boundaries. In any case shearing and the land mass effect has as a weakened system however once over water it will remain a rather punchy tropical system Cat 1 type storm for us is not to be taken lightly especially since you add the factor of the faster motion plus wind field these wind vectors and speeds are added to the overall effects of the wind damage and squally winds. In any case Monday around 1pm or so the tropical storms winds of 40 mph based on hurrivac program coming ino our area...and the strongest winds with possible squall gusts to 60-80 mph Monday starting 6pm for about 3-6 hrs then tapering off early Tuesday am. ..wind direction will be onshore...
Basically, will be more or less dragged along with broad trough to the north much like Freddy Flinstone dragging by her hair along the way on the ground not where you have the trough open up and it lifts northeast along the way but just dragged along.
Wilma will move off the extreme Southeast Florida coast Monday night and well offshore Tuesday am. cooler drier air moving into the area Tuesday night and continue into mid week with temps low mid 80's during daytime and lo 60's at nite Tuesday and Wednesday.
One last thing if accelerates a little faster and little earlier then you would adjust times of wind events a little sooner by 6 hrs or so..This would mean watches would be up by early this evening probably by the 5pm advisory...as a window of safety and margin..in case of earlier acceleration.
Right now I still favor southern most clustered tracks models..Naples to Broward-Palm Beach County Line...or more southward..
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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Quote:
since we seem to be taking a moment to stroke flhurricane.com and those who run and participate on it, I too want to thank you.
While I trust and follow the tracking/guidence/wisdom of the without fail, because they've given me no reason to do otherwise, it is nice to see and read some of the technicalities involved in forecasting a storm.
I guess I'm a geek
There are some folks on here who seem a bit off base or just flat out over-the-top, but the majority seems reasonable and balanced.
Thank you for your forum, and if there is a place to make some sort of financial donation to off-set the costs of operation (hosting/bandwidth/etc...), please let me know and I would be happy to contribute.
All this waiting is making me nuts, but this site has made good time fill as well as filling the blah, blah, blah information you get on TV.
Thanks again
on the main page left side under communication
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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same here! my neighbors this morning looked at me like "uh, ok". its still nice out, and all i have to do is bring the plants in when it gets barney.
Quote:
Quote:
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Well here in St Pete I am only planning on brining in the hanging plants, everything else stays where it is. I honestly do not think the winds are going to be that bad here.
down here in 34202 (bradenton/sarasota) and thinking the same thing... i have a large gas grill out on the lanai with the pool equipment and about 12 plants in clay pots. i know the plants will need to come in, but dont' know about the grill. might do it just to be safe. if this thing shifts just slightly north (and it looks like it could since the storm is ahead of schedule into the GOM) we could have cat 1 or 2 winds, which would suck big time.
Well funky, I just got through lugging everything in at the expense of my neighbors laughter. But I suppose I would rather be laughed at them today than to possibly crying with them later. Maybe it was premature but what the heck I can always haul it all back out.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I'm not sure that is the CoC...if you click on that radar again, click on the "forecast points" and I think that will give you an idea of where the CoC is...looks like it is just north of Cancun.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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The dreaded TS/Hurcn icon has appeared in Lake County's forecast for monday
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/FLZ044.php?zo=1&city=Northern+Lake+County
Does anyone have any idea about how much of an expansion we could see in 's wind feild.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
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What's the take that the Weather Channel is still reporting the storm to be stalled overland and there are no model changes? I am new to all of this and got all hyped up reading the post earlier but am not hearing any of this from the local mets or as I said the WC.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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It is stalled. Just a slight drift north. It's just SW of Cancun! :
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... JUST SOUTHWEST
OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM... SOUTHWEST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA
That was the 11:00 am eastern time public advis.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Are you all expecting a shift to the north? I thought the general consensus here was that it will be a weak 1 hurricane in South Florida?
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nicolew
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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In the 11 am discussion, the says that there is disparity among the models as to the speed of the hurricane. I am new to this and know to look at the spaghetti websites but they don't give an idea as to speed and time. Can someone with more knowledge let me know how to find this info out or tell me what kind of disparity we are talking about here? What is the soonest the models say it could hit FL? What is the latest? Thanks for the help!
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Wilma is overland and drifting, and the models have not changed dramatically. So far the forecast has been pretty much on track. One thing about this site is that you will get a wide range of opinions, some based on fact, some just pulled out of the air, and everthing in between.
Bill
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willw
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
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last night was a shift to the north. today back to where they've said. Ft.myers/naples area . If you live north of that you should be fine unless something unexpected happens.
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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: Fort Myers, Florida
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Quote:
Wilma is overland and drifting, and the models have not changed dramatically. So far the forecast has been pretty much on track. One thing about this site is that you will get a wide range of opinions, some based on fact, some just pulled out of the air, and everthing in between.
Bill
And.. that is what makes everyone come back to read.. This site is been great
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