Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
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Quote:
Yes - there are people left in Naples and Fort Myers. Lots of them. And they are all paying attention and getting prepared. If you look at the probabilities, Fort Myers and Naples are listed at 24%, Venice at 23% and Tampa at 22%. The point is that much of the west coast of Florida is at risk. This is a very difficult storm with a lot of variables that can still affect the path. I recall questions about Tampa but I guess I missed anyone saying that was definitely going to Tampa.
KC that is for the center to pass within 65 miles of you.If it were to hit Naples dead on that is within 65 miles of Naples just about so the probabilities don't mean that much right now as with all storms they are pretty close this far out since that is for within 65 miles.If it was within 20 miles you would see alot of dofferent numbers.
Don't let the % fool you.
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komi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
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Yesterday i have really bad storm here in Spring Lage, and seems like will like this all around Fla in next fiew days ..
http://65.75.66.73/ktbw_compref124_current.jpg [keep reloading]
Will try to have last image uploaded as long as i have power !
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
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Quote:
I noticed Broward Co. is already flooding.
partial edit
This part of the county has poor drainage. We had a tornado warning last night and they had 4-6 inches of rain in an hour or two. There was no touchdown.
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Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_
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pincty
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
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I feel the same way as you regarding Tampa. For three days now all I've heard is Tampa, Tampa, Tampa. Last night I kept reading posts that the hurricane would exit Cancun in a few hours and the track would change to the north. Then from 8 this morning there were many more posts stating that would exit the Yukatan soon and the track would be shifted north. Well, guess what? The storm is still stuck in Mexico and the track did not shift north. In fact, it may have shifted south. A year ago someone posted advice on this board which I always keep in mind: A majority of the persons who post on this forum are not mets, they are accountants, engineers, cooks, teachers, etc. They are giving their opinions on storms based on various information which they analyze. However, they are not professionals (I understand that the pros at the miss a few) thus we should depend on the in the analysis of these hurricanes. I love reading the posts on this site however I take most opinions (other than the opinions from the moderators, Scott S., and couple others) with a grain of salt.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Actually, I personally think Tampa has been mentioned so much because there are several posters on here from the area. Some are asking if they are safe and some declaring their safety. As far as I remember the majority of the posts have simply been the basics. No one knows who is safe yet. I'm no met. I'm a mother. I'm not going to say, "yea, eat your extra food and lift the sail on your yacht"!
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komi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
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Winds: http://65.75.66.73/ktbw_vwp_current.jpg
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gvl, fl
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 12
Loc: Gainesville, FL
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Here in Gainesville, we didn't see many effects at all from . There was some dry air that infused from the west, if I remember correctly, and that sort of protected us. We definitely got hit pretty badly by Francis and Jeanne, even though we only experienced winds of 60-70 mph with some stronger gusts. Our local tv forecasters have implied it could be bad for us if the track is more to the north, like toward Tampa, but they haven't gone into detail yet. Does anyone think it could be worse than Francis and Jeanne, for this part of the state? Or even as bad as those storms were? I realize it depends on the size of the windfield and how quickly it is moving. Both the other storms took a long time to pass through. They were both only about Cat 1 or 2 at landfall, right?
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
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There is no good way to know - yet - exactly where the impact will be in Florida, or if it will hit the mainland at all (e.g. a path over the Keys)
HOWEVER, there are a few things that are reasonably-well known.
1. The front is vigorous. It is 79.5F here right now. Yesterday at this time it was in the mid 80s. Humidity is WAY down (50% at present) and the wind has shifted and is out of the NNW - the front has passed us. This happened fairly early this morning and a surface map confirms this - the frontal axis is pretty much across Appalachicola right now. The trough is clearly visible on WV imagery; there's no doubt where it is. It also is not moving much in terms of eastward progression at this time; again, WV imagery confirms this.
2. The front is running basically on a SW-NE axis, NOT SSW-NNE. If was to exit right now and get picked up, I would expect a NE motion - not a ENE one.
Wilma is drifting northward at the present time, and has yet to make a solid connection with the trough.
The key as to WHERE she goes will be determined by how far down the front has travelled before she gets picked up, and how long it is before the pickup happens. Were the connection to be missed, behind this front is a STRONG high - that would confound ALL the existing models. I do not see that happening though - but I mention it because if the trough were to lift NE - not impossible - it could leave behind. Again, though, there is no model support for that scenario.
The models prognosticate the front reaching nearly to Tampa by late tomorrow. Should this happen, Tampa obviously would not take a direct hit, as the storm will run south of the frontal boundary. HOWEVER, this does not mean that anything south of that boundary is "in the clear" - quite to the contrary - anything along that boundary is likely to get positively hammered with nasty weather, as all this tropical moisture feeding into what is already a vigorous trough can produce incredible amounts of rainfall, tornadoes, hail, and extreme straight-line wind levels. As a consequence I would be expecting ugly weather from wherever your "current surface map" shows the front to be all the way well south of there.
As well, at last report had a 200nm radius windfield for tropical storm force winds. That's big! Add baroclinic enhancement and sustained 35kt winds with gusts into the 60-70kt range are not unreasonable at all to expect over most of the Peninsula when the storm comes across.
I do think that the extreme NE event that I was fearing may come to pass is less likely, simply due to time - it is likely that the low associated with this trough will be off the seaboard by the time comes up. That's a piece of good news for the rain-soaked NE coast.
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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I agree. Everyone has a right to their own opinion. As long as they have a thought or reason for stating such, I have no problem with it. Bottom line is that nothing will be known until if and when the storm emerges and begins its turn toward the peninsula. I dont think in your face comments or i told you so's is productive or proper for this forum. Please refrain from dissing the people you do not agree with. I think everyone here is genuinely concerned for their own safety and are not wishing for this storm in their back yard. Now back to our regularly scheduled program 
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
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You can look at the Weather Buoy data (5 day temp graphs) to get a feel for where the front is. Buoy 42040 has just registered the drop, as has Buoys 42046, 42038 and 42020. Buoy 42039 appears to be starting to register it. Buoy 42001 has not shown any temperature change to speak of yet.
What is most interesting is that Buoy 42002 (25.17 N 94.42 W) has not shown any signifigant changes yet, althought it appears as though it is at the front based on the NWS info.
Could this mean it is not dropping as low as thought?
Quote:
I believe the southern most part (as it relates to florida)of the front is still in the Panhandle, anyone see anything diff?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Here's a clip from the NWS - Ruskin Hazardous Weather this morning:
MARINERS AND RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD KEEP UPDATED ON THE PROGRESS AND FORECASTS OF ...AS
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
SUNDAY...AND HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MARINERS SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
That's an OFFICIAL source. Therefore, I think it is a given for people in Tampa to be a little concerned. Nobody has forgotten Naples or Miami or any other place. It's just an up-in-the air situation right now. Take it with a grain of salt or don't. In the end, no matter where it ends up, most Floridians are going to feel some type of effect from . Of course, others will feel worse, but with the cold front colliding with a tropical cyclone, it will not be pretty.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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nicolew
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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Well, I would venture to say that Ft. Lauderdale is a pretty major city in Florida, in a very populated county (Broward) in the most populated area of the state without a doubt. But it is natural that people are most concerned about the area in which they live. Many of the posters on here are from Tampa and so they mention Tampa frequently. This is human nature and totally normal! The word Tampa might get the people on this site going. I live in Miami and there has been very little south Florida talk on here - but I'm not complaining! I totally understand why.
Quote:
Its fine to give a opinion and where you think its gonna go but some like to to get others going.Why has there not been so much of watch out Keys or watch out Ft Laud or Port Charoltte....Because its not a major city.But to say the word Tampa gets people going.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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There is a rule of thumb in life, "Do not make others look bad to make yourself look good". Frankly everyone is a little nervous about the impact of this storm. Frankly, this storm can have severe impacts on the South and Central Florida area. The risk of tornadoes are very high, the risk of severe lightening storms are also high, and tropical storm force winds or gusts are also can provide anything from isolated to extensive damage.
There is a tendency to look at the storm as one dimension riding on a line from point a to point b. However, environmental influences of many dimensions influence the severity of weather. The cold front that is to sweep down the state is like adding gasoline to a fire. A strong cold front meets a warm core system. That in itself is a setup for some very nasty weather regardless of if you live in SFLorida or Central Florida.
Everyone should be taking this storm seriously. Regardless of if that little line is right over your house, or 60-100 miles north or south of you. To claim people are acting like Chicken Little or Wishcasting does not contribute to this board. As far as I know the moderators welcome productive discussions on where this storm goes even from people who are not Mets (the housewives, the engineers, the accountants, and even people who can not spell or make grammatical errors).
The stress level is going to pick up soon, and its important that we be tolerant of everyones opinion, even opinions that clash with our own.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Does anyone know how many MPH a drift is...ROFL! just said the center is 10 miles WSW of Cancun. There's not much land North of Cancun.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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The best thing is that this storm will really be moving as it crosses the peninsula..that will really hold down damage, unlike last years storms. and were almost identical cat 3's but the damage from was a fraction of because one moved at 7 mph and the other at 18 mph....Opal was the last Cat 3 to hit FL in October. It was moving at 24 mph, and we had power the next day...the slow movers are the worst...hpefully a CAT 1 will move and keep damage minimal to a few trees and powerlines near landfall
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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The marine forecast at 11 AM was stating the storm moving at 2 Knots.. Guess that is their definition of drift.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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The E edge of the front as it realtes to the Panhandle does not seem to be dipping enough for me to feel good at this point, it's early and still plenty of time, but I see being cornered/pinched between MSLP 1012 and that front and riding the rail. Again it's early
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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storm has been drifting steadily northward and if the trend continues it will be moving back over water around early evening. the inner core of the hurricane hasn't become disorganized due to the center having gone inland only a few miles, so the likelihood of it weakening significantly isn't there. the models indicating a central pressure in the 960s at feet wet probably have it on the mark. based on the somewhat improved outflow to the west today and strong jet gradient to the north i'd say the hurricane will be in very good condition for regeneration on sunday. don't be surprised if it reintensifies back to cat 3, as per the official. i see the potential for it to be stronger as well... would be surprised if it hits florida in the 945-955mb range. the jet winds appear to be streaking over the lower outflow levels, so once the core of the hurricane starts getting affected by those it will really accelerate and likely stabilize or begin to weaken. almost no model support for it to phase now, except for a few left outliers. some still bring it close enough to the northeast to cause some rainfall and coastal wind impact, but nothing on the order of some of the scary intense storm direct impacts shown on earlier runs.
going to keep the bullseye on fort myers out of stubbornness though i'm not convinced that the threat of a direct hit to naples is less likely. due to rapid movement the windfield asymmetery noted earlier by others will cause the strongest winds south of the impact point. if that's mostly driving into the glades then not such a big deal (would be much weaker on the southeast florida coast)... but right into marco, naples, or fort myers and that's a recipe for significant wind damage. surge potential is high on that section of coast, but even if the storm comes in near high tide we'll be near a last quarter phase moon, and that's the astronomical parameter for less tidal amplitude.
25L has a 18-hr run to the hispaniola coast to intensify to a tropical storm... the island will probably knock it down a good bit and it may not recover. by monday it will be close enough to to begin arcing sharply northward... models still show a little window for intensification there too. satellite appearance is good right now, so it has a modest chance at t.s. in the short term. it won't get strong enough to be more than a rain event.
globals showing the kind of pattern that can generate more caribbean action later next week. a persistent, broad surface low should be hanging east of nicaragua, while another wave should come drifting in towards the islands under the persistent ridging north of the eastern caribbean.
HF 1735z22october
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