Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
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According to the weather map I just looked at the trough has retreated from a line between Tampa and Yucatan, to a line between Apalachicola and Brownsville TX. Unless this is an older map (the time is current) posted in error, it would seem that will move NNW rather than NW. I'll check it again in a while and see if I need new eyes. At any rate my arthritis and sinuses say the trough has moved.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Are you sure you don't mean NE? The front is supposed to sweep the storm NE, and thought that it already had done so. I'll have to check that out...thanks for bringing that to our attention!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I don't recall any of the Tampa Bay mets ever predicting that Tampa Bay would take a direct hit. They HAVE said that the storm could end up further north than Naples ...as in Ft. Myers, which is still in the "cone". All they have said is that everyone in the Tampa Bay area needed to keep a close eye on the storm because of the difficulty of predicting a storm 5 days out.
What they are telling us now is what the NWS is saying...that because of the large wind area, that areas north of where the storm will eventually will make landfall will experience TS winds in the northern coastal and inland counties; the counties in their southern viewing areas can expect hurricane force winds in the coastal and inland counties.
Given the cone of error, Naples seems to be in the bullseye. However, the margin of error is always there (ala ) and it could make landfall further south of Naples or further north of Naples. The mentions this in every single advisory. If you've watched most hurricanes, they always seem jog a tad (or more at times) to either the east/west/north/south. Ed Rappaport said today in a CNN interview that it could be Ft. Myers, it could be Naples or it could be further south of Naples, but that with the size of the storm, you cannot focus on just the black line because most of the peninsula will feel some effects from .
Hopefully, this will end this topic. Move on and watch and wait for where this storm ends up and hope that wherever it ends up, no one suffers any major damage.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
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Quote:
According to the weather map I just looked at the trough has retreated from a line between Tampa and Yucatan, to a line between Apalachicola and Brownsville TX. Unless this is an older map (the time is current) posted in error, it would seem that will move NNW rather than NW. I'll check it again in a while and see if I need new eyes. At any rate my arthritis and sinuses say the trough has moved.
It is in fact that. Genesis had a great post about this subject a couple of pages back.
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Matt
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
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Quote:
I don't recall any of the Tampa Bay mets ever predicting that Tampa Bay would take a direct hit. They HAVE said that the storm could end up further north than Naples ...as in Ft. Myers, which is still in the "cone". All they have said is that everyone in the Tampa Bay area needed to keep a close eye on the storm because of the difficulty of predicting a storm 5 days out.
What they are telling us now is what the NWS is saying...that because of the large wind area, that areas north of where the storm will eventually will make landfall will experience TS winds in the northern coastal and inland counties; the counties in their southern viewing areas can expect hurricane force winds in the coastal and inland counties.
Given the cone of error, Naples seems to be in the bullseye. However, the margin of error is always there (ala ) and it could make landfall further south of Naples or further north of Naples. The mentions this in every single advisory. If you've watched most hurricanes, they always seem jog a tad (or more at times) to either the east/west/north/south. Ed Rappaport said today in a CNN interview that it could be Ft. Myers, it could be Naples or it could be further south of Naples, but that with the size of the storm, you cannot focus on just the black line because most of the peninsula will feel some effects from .
Hopefully, this will end this topic. Move on and watch and wait for where this storm ends up and hope that wherever it ends up, no one suffers any major damage.
I never said the tampa bay mets i said the ones on here LET IT GO have fun and watch this storm and be happy but let it go i was talking about the semi pro mets on here/
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Quote:
Thunderbird - I was watching and they said something the other day about the upper levels of the storm being swept NE faster than the lower levels. Could this be what is happening now? What happens when a storm such as this has it's head taken off? Can it survive without that upper level feature?
It sounds like was talking about the effects of strong wind shear (stronger winds at upper-levels compared to the lower-levels) on the system. That doesn't seem to be occurring yet... the strong wind shear probably won't set in until later tonight, though there may not be enough time for the shear to weaken the system signifcantly before it reaches Florida. Right now, still seems to be struggling with the effects of being over land for such a long time, which disrupted its inner circulation.
Weaker systems actually can have their mid-level circulations disconnected from the surface circulation due to strong wind shear... which inevitably leads to dissipation. That won't happen in a strong system such as , instead will eventually develop into more of a non-tropical low pressure system thanks to the effects of shear and also interacting with a cold front.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Chase - No disrespect to you, but wouldn't the and other outlets have an update if in fact the storm was moving NNE and changing paths? The 2pm update still says NE @ 12 MPH. I am confused.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Well, i know I said it earlier. The bands have been very slow in their approach to Key West. Looks like the band is finally within an hour of really giving Key West a good dose of rain. The next band, that will be a number of hours later, appear more potent. I would not be surprised to see a tornado watch issued within the hour based upon the the discussion from SPC.
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Jim
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Checking the sat images occasionally inbetween laundry and changing out the closet (we came close to snow flurries last night), and it appears that the attempts to pull tog the inner eye have not amounted to anything...not too much convection firing off there anymore and that area is starting to clear out again. The outer eyewall, while complete, does not have a continuous strong band of convection encircling it, although it is getting more defined (the temp diff is probably incrsng), and that band is thickening (been looking at the 85ghz off and on since 11am).
In fact there's not much else besides this outer eyewall that isn't reduced down to TS strength...but that didn't deter before from having a strong core. Earlier this morning (about 3am) the outer windfield had built up and was looking better, but that's mostly gone now.
On visual the eye is starting to show that it's clearing out, but the change on wv within the eye isn't that impressive yet, although the surrounding eyewall is showing cooler cloud tops. She's starting to touch the edges of the loop current now. I think we'll start to see the eye come together later in the afternoon, and once that happens, she could intensify quickly for a short time. Overall...she continues to look better, not worse, but improvement is happening very slowly, and is in terms of organization, not increased windspeed.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Weaker systems actually can have their mid-level circulations disconnected from the surface circulation due to strong wind shear... which inevitably leads to dissipation.
Not always. The LLC can be very tenacious. I think we had one this year that came back for awhile before conditions finally became too hostile, but can't remember offhand which one it was.
Not a factor for in any case.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
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Quote:
Chase - No disrespect to you, but wouldn't the and other outlets have an update if in fact the storm was moving NNE and changing paths? The 2pm update still says NE @ 12 MPH. I am confused.
No: what I was saying is that the cold front did in fact retreat, thus reverting to a warm front. I am not implying that is or will turn to the N, NW, or NNW. There is just simply no meteorological data to back up that drastic of a change. I simply read the post and assumed that the NW direction they were refering to was a typo. I believe that will hit FL late tonight.
Is it possible for to turn North? Yes, but likely? probably not. Take a look at Genesis post a couple of pages back. It is very informative, and will answer your question better than I can.
Sorry for the confusion
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Matt
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Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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I'm sorry, but I can't resist.....
Quoting Larry The Cable Guy:
"Now that's funny right there, I don't care who you are"
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well its not often durning a season we see a floater on two systems... pretty shot here 
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-rgb-loop.html
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
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When Phillips noted the change in s course it took the a little while to confirm it. Looking at the movie loop of there seems to be a northward bump at the end of the loop. But we'll see! wont be the first storm to deviate from the projected path, if this is happening.
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zacker20
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 27
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The Tampa area will feel very little effects from . Trust me.
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Nutmeg
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Loc: New England
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Quote:
anyway....where are all the new england users/mets?
New England here! And have been watching closely for days now. We are aware and very concerned. I've been through hurricanes in the tropics and through nor'easters in New England...have profound respect for both!
As things develop I will start posting more. Meanwhile, all good thoughts from the Nutmeg State (Connecticut) to our friends in Florida and our prayers for recovery to the Yucatan.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Not to pile on, it is Sunday LOL, but to me it appears that the front has move deeper into Fl than it was this morning, at least the Eastern portion of Fl, looks like it wants to go to Lake Ocha
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Quote:
The Tampa area will feel very little effects from . Trust me.
Actually, check NWS tonight for a new forecast. Ed Rappaport was just quoted on the local news as saying that, "the circulation is expanding." So, that means the TS force winds may extend out FURTHER than previously forecast.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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URNT12 KNHC 231918
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/19:05:40Z
B. 23 deg 19 min N
085 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2769 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 341 deg 071 kt
G. 260 deg 039 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 13 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3046 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 55
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 2124A OB 27
MAX FL WIND 96 KT S QUAD 17:16:40 Z
SFC CNTR 180 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
CLOUD CURVATURE DEVELOPING WITHIN EYE. STORM SHOWING MORE TILT FROM FLIGHT LEVEL TO SURFACE.
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