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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 134
Loc: East Central Florida 28.33N 80.81W
Tornado Outbreak
      #6225 - Mon Nov 11 2002 12:22 PM

A massive Tornado outbreak happened yesterday, which has shattered the general quiet on the severe storm front (as least for major events).

In Alabama, around ten people deid and 50 or so were injured. Mainly in Walker county on the north side where 9 of the 10 died. In Georgia, four were injured in Pickens County north past Atlanta. In Illinois no damage, but some sighted tornadoes. Indiana had 3 people who were injured when a grocery store partially collapsed.

In Kentucky, damage was reported, but no injuries or deaths. Louisana had more rain on top of the storms earlier in the season. In Lowndes county in eastern Missisiippi, one person was killed and nearly 30 were hurt.
Storms in the mountains of North Carolina knocked out power to many places. Ohio sufered the deaths of 5 and 21 people were injured mostly in Van Wert County. Pennsylvania had one man killed with 19 injured along the western edge fof the state. South Carolina had one reported tornado in Greenwood county. Tennessee had 16 dead, and 55 injured near Mossy Grove in the eastern side of the state. 45 people remain missing. 6 trailers were destroyed in West Virginia.

Unlike Hurricanes, which we are still in season for, we have much less warning for approaching Tornadoes.

The tropics remain quiet this month, chances are slim we will see anything more in 2002.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [mac]


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Bill
Unregistered




Small circulation in N BOC
      #6226 - Tue Nov 12 2002 11:44 AM

has formed this morning, caught up in the front, interesting to see what may happen if the front stalls out!

IHS,

Charles


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
ALERT: Severe weather possible over Central Florida friday night and saturday.
      #6228 - Thu Nov 14 2002 03:37 PM

The Ruskin NWS explains it all, the upper level winds are going to be extremely strong and this brings about the possibility of at least a few isolated severe storms.

Although I am much better at reading tropical features than US wx features, I have a few feelings about this event:
1. The western portion of Central Florida seems to have the best shot at isolated tornadic activity with this event. The storms, while they should be weakening, will be very intense with this squall line. F0 or F1 tornadoes can't be ruled out over the western part of C. Florida.
2. Eastern C. Florida has a lesser threat of tornado touchdowns, but we have a very great threat of downburst winds as the thunderstorms weaken some. As thunderstorms weaken, they typically do so by "exhailing". These are known as downburst winds, although even slight signs of rotation can make them weak F0 tornadoes. Downburst winds can be as weak as 40-50 MPh and as storms as 100 MPh.

Hail, excessive lighting, and strong winds are a threat with any strong or severe thunderstorms. Although torential rain is always possible, my experiences with squall lines (97/98 El Nino, whew!) generally included a lot of large hail. This may be true this time as well because of cool slots of air in the middle levels of the atmosphere.

With this being said, I'd suggest that all residents pay close attention to a *REALIABLE* source of weather information. A NOAA weather radio with fresh batteries is always a good idea as this worst of this squall line may roar through overnight. I should also mention that squall lines that come through at night also tend to be on the more severe side. I am not sure of a reason for this, but many personal wx experiences have brought this. A severe weather plan is also a good idea just in case a warning is issued for your area.

Welcome to the El Nino winter, folks.


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Interesting take on 2003 season.
      #6230 - Sun Nov 17 2002 03:23 PM

Has anybody (if anybody is here) gone over to the Storm Forum? Jason Moreland from TWW has an interesting take for next year's hurricane season, the most intersting point is that the El Nino we have right now may be showing some early signs of eventual decline and dissipation by spring 2003. The latest ENSO model ensemble (12 models) only has two supporting warm conditions by June 2003. As Jason stated in his analysis, we may be facing a La Nina next year. We all know what happened 1n 1995, 1996, 1998, and 1999. Those are the 4 La Nina years we've had so far in our active phase, and we all know what happened in those 4 years. Stay tuned.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Interesting take on 2003 season.
      #6231 - Sun Nov 17 2002 10:06 PM

the particular kind of el niņo we've got right now has the strongest positive anomalies, and source, in the central pacific. the signal off peru isnt all that impressive. so if anybody has the time or patience, take a look at years with developing la niņa that followed centpac el niņo events, get us some analog seasons to look at and digest.
if you're interested in what kind of winter we may get due to the el niņo signature, read the articles joe d'aleo at intellicast.com has posted recently. informative, with good data and graphics supporting the ideas.
gray faces the worst bust of a seasonal forecast since 1997. we get to hear the hair-pulling review in another week or two.
personally, thoughts are now advancing to whether i'll see snow when i go home this winter. i have an unfinished snowball vendetta against my brother and sister that knows no end. and my skull-headed snowman (he had icicle teeth!) last january was the coolest on the block.. until the sun wilted him and his head lopped off. anyway, i want more snow.
HF 0255z18november


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Interesting take on 2003 season.
      #6232 - Mon Nov 18 2002 05:56 PM

HF,
Actually, we should see Gray's verification come out this week, the 20th to the 22nd is most likely. His verfications have consistently come out around those days since 1999 and I don't think he'll do it any different this year. His first 2003 forecast should come out in the first seven days of December.

The low was around 40 degrees last night in SW Seminole County. We are in a protected area, which usually drops our temperature a couple degrees from the city areas.


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Nice SSTA link I got from another sight...
      #6233 - Mon Nov 25 2002 07:23 PM

Whew! It's still dead on here, but I'm posting occasionally anyway. This is a good SSTA link that I picked up on another board, not only does it show the SSTA's from 100W to 180E, but it also shows the SSTA anomalies down to 400 meters. If anyone is checking this board occasionally, I'd like you to comment on what is occuring to west of the warm pool and under the suface (350-400 meters). Hmmm....

<a href="ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52yx/ocean/wkxzteq.html" target="_blank">ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52yx/ocean/wkxzteq.html</a>


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Steveunplugged
Unregistered




Go Bucs!
      #6235 - Sat Nov 30 2002 02:56 AM

We get the sweep in Sunday night. Not only did we sweep most of the landfalling storms this year, we will sweep the Bucs.

Go Saints

We now return you to your regularly scheduled weather event. I wonder what Dr. Gray's got to say next week? Muhahahahahaha.


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