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Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Tropical Depression 5 forms in Bay of Campeche, forecast to move into Mexico Between Tuxpan and La Pesca as a Tropical Storm.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 60 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3234 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
22.4N 94.4W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Nw at 10 mph
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Radius of Winds [Re: danielw]
      #62461 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:28 PM

Quote:

Using the hypothetical Landfall Location, just east of Marcos Island.
Would give Hurricane Force winds south of a Bradenton to Melbourne.
And Tropical Storm winds from the Suwannee River to near Jacksonville.


Again...this is a hypothetical area. Based on Wilma's movement over the 3 hour period from 2030Z to 2330Z.~danielw

See Skeetobite's Map pages for graphic versions.




stupid question.. don't laugh.... that would include miami dade county right?

btw danny i attempted to shutter the house.. but i didn't get finish.. but i have a secure area to be in the downstairs area... hope all goes well...

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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garrison
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62463 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:29 PM

Looks like 120 -125ish, at landfall, just S of Marco Island,

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62464 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:30 PM

live radar from wesh 2 in orlando

http://mfile.akamai.com/12890/live/reflector:38190.asx

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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amonty
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
Re: Shear [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62465 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:30 PM Attachment (332 downloads)

Heres what i've picked up on my GRLevel3 software.

See attachment above~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:33 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Shear [Re: amonty]
      #62467 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:32 PM

latest information for central florida:
http://www.wesh.com/news/5131657/detail.html


also here's a link to a WESH met flying with the G-IV crew two days ago i think... maybe yesterday..
http://www.wesh.com/video/5146967/index.html

Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:36 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62468 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:33 PM

Quote:

what is the flight level ...I believe 950.




I don't think so!


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garrison
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62469 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:36 PM

700 MB is FL, 950 would be skirting the tree tops

Edited by garrison (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:36 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Hypothetical Wind Fields [Re: Margie]
      #62470 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:36 PM

Using the hypothetical Landfall Location, just east of Marcos Island.

This would give an area of Hurricane Force winds south of a Bradenton to Melbourne line. The Southern Half Of the Florida Peninsula.

And Tropical Storm force winds from the Suwannee River to near Jacksonville line. Basically the Whole Folrida Peninsula!


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62472 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:37 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.




cool - what is the flight level ...i.e, 950mb, 700mb ...etc?




The flight-level is 700mb. A 950mb flight level would not be advised in this situation.

The "eye" has cleared out even more on the 0015Z IR image, though there appear to be bands of convection to the SW and NE of the center that are impinging on the eye, giving it an oblong appearance. It gives the impression of a smaller eye trying to form by wrapping bands of convection closer into the center.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: Shear [Re: Big Tk]
      #62473 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:37 PM

Quote:

Is there any possibility of this storm hitting north of Fort myers. Because i believe that would put tampa in Hurricane force winds.




Firstly, any prediction I render is not official..... It is important that you know that.

Right now, the odds for Wilma-centroid impact on the Tampa/Fort Myers area directly, is lessoning... HOWEVER I cannot stress enough that Wilma is a big critter with a large circumvellate, and you should by no means think this means you're off the hook.. Tropical storm force sustained winds and possible gusts to at least hurricane force, particularly in more intense near CDO type feeder band squalls will rake said areas, even if Wilma's core stays over southern sections. In addition, this TC is apparently already become tornado happy...there are some other circumstances in the area, which are compounding this, accentuating that threat... Numerous tornado warnings have already flown and this will also add to dangers in peripheral areas not being directly assaulted by her core. So, please, if you are in the Tampa/Fort Myers areas, treat this as though you are being directly impacted and pay very close attention to your local instructions by municipalities, because their advise (more times that not) will be advise that may save your life.

off the record, you should have 40 -70 mph winds; the latter more in gusts, which could even be higher... Right now, and this is MY opinion only, Wilma appears slightly S of predicted track... Doesn't mean she won't start hooking N in the next few hours, but that is less likely...So, I personally do not believe Naples will be the landfall, but like I said, a big nasty powerful beast makes the pin point center of circulation almost irrelevant.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: garrison]
      #62474 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:38 PM

LOL. I can't read those reports well yet. Haven't taken the time to study how to read em. :P

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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swimaway19
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62476 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:39 PM

What do you think the time of landfall will be? The local mets say around 8am, but that sounds a little late to me

--------------------
Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62478 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:42 PM

I have the Hypothetical track on some software here.

As Soon as I get another Vortex fix I will plot that and update whether she appears to be on That track or a different track.

As Tip said. The Tornado Threat is very, very real right now. And It will Only GET WORSE. As Wilma is traversing the state and interacting with a frontal boundary and jet stream.
Take ALL Tornado Warnings seriously...and Take Cover.


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civil2183
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62479 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:42 PM

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62480 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:43 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.




cool - what is the flight level ...i.e, 950mb, 700mb ...etc?



I believe 950.




Ok - so that should be a 90% conversion... or 99kts at the surface 114mph ...just shy of cat 3...But there is time and an ever improving sat/rad structure...It's just a matter of time - not that I wish that on anyone!!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Shear [Re: civil2183]
      #62482 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:47 PM

Quote:

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?




Katrina and Rita both spun off F1, F2 and a few F3's in MS and LA.

They all tear up the neighborhood. Some worse than others. I believe the first fatality in MS was from an F2 in the Delta near Belzoni,MS.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: Shear [Re: civil2183]
      #62483 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:52 PM

Quote:

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?




ah kinda....you'd hear it... trust me!


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Joshua
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62484 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:55 PM

Quote:

LOL. I can't read those reports well yet. Haven't taken the time to study how to read em. :P




http://flhurricane.com/recon/

You can now read them


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DrMos
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: danielw]
      #62485 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:57 PM

Based on the 2pm vs. 8pm changes coordinates, it appears Wilma is gaining 0.8 degrees of latitude for every 0.9 degrees of longitude. Going by the 5pm vs. 8pm coordinates Wilma is gaining 0.8 degrees latitude for every 1.0 degree of longitude.

Assuming the 5pm vs 8pm numbers, extrapolation from her current lat/lon of 23.9n, 84.4w would seem to bring Wilma farther north than your calculations. For example,
23.9n, 84.4w
24.7n, 83.4w
25.5n, 82.4w
25.9n, 81.9w

That would bring Wilma onshore somewhere just north of Naples. Do you agree? Moreover, if the 2pm vs. 8pm coordinate changes are used, then that brings landfall even closer to FMY, assuming extrapolation of course.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Relayed Post [Re: danielw]
      #62486 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:57 PM

This was sent to me in a PM.
From: Rdietch

Well i can't post till after the storm but anyway i do wish everyone well down there Naples and below.You know im not a wishcaster but did say south of Naples on here 4 days ago so im close but really i wished it would dissapate...

I agree with him wishing you guys the best~danielw
Oh, and I asked him if I could post this. I did edit out the latter portion of it.


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