age234
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 22
Loc: Winter Park
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Tornado Warning for ORANGE COUNTY
FLC095-240615-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0027.051024T0526Z-051024T0615Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
131 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE AREAS OF...CHRISTMAS...BITHLO
* UNTIL 215 AM EDT
* AT 130 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR STATE ROAD
520 SOUTH OF THE BEE LINE IN EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO...MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BEE LINE
AND TOWARD CHRISTMAS AND BITHLO IN EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY.
(snip - I would assume people on here know how to prepare for a tornado)
LAT...LON 2827 8102 2828 8084 2860 8093 2860 8118
$$
GLITTO
Edited by age234 (Mon Oct 24 2005 01:50 AM)
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mojorox
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
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dupe
Edited by mojorox (Mon Oct 24 2005 01:43 AM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Key West now reporting sustained winds to 58 knots, with gusts to 65 knots (hurricane force):
KEYW 240539Z AUTO 15058G65KT 1 1/2SM RA BR FEW021 BKN027 OVC036 27/24 A2911 RMK AO2 PK WND 14065/0538 PRESFR P0018 TSNO
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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CNN wx dude is good (name: chad myers).... and who ever is running Titan in the background is GOOD too!!!
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 24 2005 02:02 AM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Incredible, Cell L7 moving from the SE @ 72 MPH Eye looks to be about 55 Mi
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I have exhausted all of the Vortex fix changes.
Following are the hypothetical landfall locations from those tracks.
First set= Marcos Island
Second set= Homestead
Third set= Estero Bay, S of Ft myers beach.
Combo on the First and Third Set= Marcos Island
**The reason for the combo is those two fixes were run on basically the same Aircraft Heading. It was just an extra set to run out a theory.
I'll run another Combo on the next fix...also.
Now here is the Bad News.
With a 60nm Eye.
If she were to make Landfall at Marcos Island. The Eye would cover the west coast from Florida Bay to Port Charlotte.
If she made Landfall at Estero Bay...the Eye would cover the West Coast from Everglades City to Sarasota,FL
These are hypothetical Landfall Locations based on 's Vortex Fixes and the tracks between them...extrapolated to the West Florida Coast.~danielw
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mattgator
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
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Someone, perhaps on the weather channel or maybe Max Mayfield said that the forward speed of the storm is factored in and mostly added to the windspeed. So if the storm was moving at 3mph and is now at 18mph, then that increase of speed should be part of the runnup we saw today from 100 to 115 mph. That might indicated little actual strengthening of the storm itself but an increase in forward speed. However, as often noted the better circulation and drop in pressure also create increased wind speeds. So something doesn't reconcile 100 + 15mph forward speed + greated organization = ?
Also, isn't the storm almost pulling away from Key West?
Here in the Miami area (Coral Gables) there has been very little rain, winds are starting to pick up a bit. From a bit of figuring, I don't think the brunt of the storm will be here. We are a bit far south. Latitude 25.1 Long 82.7 now.
Stay safe
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komi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
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Hi 2 all !
I moved from Sebring to Okeechobee to help my wife family to board house !
Yall stay safe .. and talk to yall on monday ...
If we can deal last summer with 3, we can deal with that one too ...
God bless you all .. .
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I don't like doing the Hypothetical tracks.
I did one for and I discovered that would go ashore where I used to work. And put me in the NE Quadrant.
The tracks are just to narrow it down some.
If you will look at Skeetobyte's Map on the Main page it will help too.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/forecast/AL242005ltsz.gif
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The 2am ET position was listed at 25.1 N, 82.7 W, but that seems to be in error based on the radar and satellite location. That actually seems to be the location of the NE eyewall. Based on the 1am ET, position the new position would imply a movement of greater than 40 mph, so something is off there.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i think the landfall will be kinda between nexrad.....miami...key west...tampa...melbourne....
the closet tv radar i think is at wink tv...
http://www.winktv.com/x411.xml
i will look to see if i can find any others...
also to be honest... i think trying to find where came out of florida.... j/k... though it seems like it.... 
ABC7 live coverage.... fort myers
http://www.abc-7.com/LiveASX.asx?mswmext=.asx
appears they are running Fastrac.... Baron WX Service program...not sure if they have
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 24 2005 02:19 AM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I was watching Brian Norcross and he mentioned that there was some sort of technical issue and is now pulling info from Key West radar, would that have anything to do with it?
--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
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lol right, taking over where left off at.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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A bit off topic.
I thought something had happened to the wind speeds being reported. As the one I was looking at was Way below what it should have been.
It turned out that I was looking at the data from the second Recon plane that had taken off.
They were reporting 71kts winds at a location over Georgia.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Quote:
I was watching Brian Norcross and he mentioned that there was some sort of technical issue and is now pulling info from Key West radar, would that have anything to do with it?
I'm not sure what the problem is... the latest recon from 0554Z put the center at 25.0N, 83.2W:
URNT12 KNHC 240615
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/05:54:00Z
B. 25 deg 02 min N
083 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2716 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 059 deg 080 kt
G. 309 deg 024 nm
H. 955 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 15 C/ 3046 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C60
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A OB 33
MAX FL WIND 112 KT SW QUAD 04:11:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 301 / 14NM
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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watch out in naples... a tornadic storm heading that way.....
***CNN happen to have the local mayor on that the cell is headed towards as the warning came out.... GOOD LIVE TV*** mayor sayes everglades city is at sea level
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 315 AM EDT
* AT 213 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GOODLAND...OR ABOUT 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CHOKOLOSKEE...MOVING NORTH AT 75 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GOODLAND
ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK
MARCO ISLAND
BELLE MEADE
NAPLES
NORTH NAPLES
VANDERBILT BEACH
IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF A TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS AND WINDOWS.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 2553 8155 2559 8136 2638 8160 2630 8192
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 24 2005 02:23 AM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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WFUS52 KMFL 240615
TORMFL
FLC021-240715-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0014.051024T0614Z-051024T0715Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 315 AM EDT
* AT 213 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GOODLAND...OR ABOUT 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CHOKOLOSKEE...MOVING NORTH AT 75 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GOODLAND
ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK
MARCO ISLAND
BELLE MEADE
NAPLES
NORTH NAPLES
VANDERBILT BEACH
--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Mon Oct 24 2005 02:24 AM)
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mattgator
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
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why do the tv reporters keep advising people not to evacuate now? It is the middle of night...who would evacuate during a hurricane in the middle of the night? time to turn off the tv and turn in...
cheers
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superfly
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: New Orleans
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130kts winds found at flight level which is equal to 135MPH surface. Latest vortex 955mb. This is in the SE quad so if the Keys experience the eyewall...
Edited by superfly (Mon Oct 24 2005 02:28 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Okay using the Last Two Fixes ...I'm still getting a resolution just South of Ft Myers Beach.
Heading of 40.7degrees True. At a 109 nm, roughly.
Distance between last 2 fixes=27.76 nm
Forward speed of 17.9kts or 20.6mph
109nm to go ( HYPOTHETICALLY) would put the EYE (Center of Circulation) ashore in 6 hours.
Edited by danielw (Mon Oct 24 2005 02:39 AM)
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