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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Joshua]
      #62487 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:58 PM

We have a pretty strong burst of conection now in the last frame of the IR loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

See the 00:15 UTC image.


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Shear [Re: danielw]
      #62488 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:58 PM

I do not know if any tornadoes were recorded in Beaumont but Rita had to have spun off some tornadoes or at least tornadic winds
here.If you look at the destruction you'd know some of it had to be tornadic. Also, the few people I know who
stayed heard the "freight train" sounds. Of course, there is wind damage absolutely everywhere
but the way some of the trees were broken off and twisted it looks like tornado damage. Looks like Wilma may make it to Cat 3.
I hope everyone has evacuated that needed to and that all have made preparations. Will be thinking of everyone and hope for the
best.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Relayed Post [Re: danielw]
      #62490 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:00 PM

Quote:

This was sent to me in a PM.
From: Rdietch

Well i can't post till after the storm but anyway i do wish everyone well down there Naples and below.You know im not a wishcaster but did say south of Naples on here 4 days ago so im close but really i wished it would dissapate...

I agree with him wishing you guys the best~danielw
Oh, and I asked him if I could post this. I did edit out the latter portion of it.



In that case, I did tell my uncle and several other people Last Sunday that I thought it would hit Naples or a little south of. Not wishcasting, just was taking into account climatology and models.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Shear [Re: swimaway19]
      #62492 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:01 PM

Quote:

What do you think the time of landfall will be? The local mets say around 8am, but that sounds a little late to me




..Take her reco fix translation speed (15mph) and devide it into the distance she is from landfall (or whatever location it is you are interested in) on the heading she's currently on... They are saying NE (which I'm in argument over.... guess I'll have to just suck it up but DanielW recently said he'd help us out by dong a plot analysis soon...) Anyway, the 8pm intermediate advisory had her on 15mph at 365km..."SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA." ....~225miles from the southwest coast of the Penisula... NOTE That provided it stays on this heading and speed, which is not a certainty. If anything, she "should" gain latitude and accelerate, but we'll leave that aside and just say that 225/15 is about 15hours ...I suspect with acceleration this will be around 12Z monday morning, however.. So I agree with them...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:06 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: DrMos]
      #62493 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:02 PM

I haven't looked at the NHC plots.

I came up with 25min N and 36min E over 3:30.
That would be 0.4N and 0.6E in decimals.
I use the dd mmm format from the aircraft, and convert it to decimals. Divide the minutes(mm) by 60 to get decimals.


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Shear [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #62494 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:03 PM

You can just barely see how the cold front is starting to interact with the farthest northerly outflow of Wilma on this loop. Look how the farthest north outflow gets pushed just a tad to the south:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62495 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:04 PM

I will tell you what we have been experiencing here in Lakeland...T-storms started about 5pm and the most intense had to be from 6-7:30pm. We probably got a .25 to .50" of rain. Lots of lightning and thunder, but not too much wind.
Humidity is still there outside, temperature reading is about 81.
Hope that all in the path of Wilma stay safe as it looks like this storm may be nastier than expected.
Colleen

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: danielw]
      #62496 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:07 PM

The eye is clearing out at a rapid rate now.

She appears to be Cat 3 on sat images.

She now has time to achive Cat 4 status before weakening.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:12 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Shear [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62497 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:09 PM

SPC has upgraded the severe weather risk from "Slight" to "Moderate" over about the southern half of the peninsula. While that may not sound too bad, keep in mind that they only use three risk levels (slight, moderate, high), with "High" risk generally reserved for big tornado outbreak-type days in the Plains. A Moderate Risk is pretty rare for a landfalling hurricane scenario, so the risk of tornadoes is considered to be somewhat greater than normal for a tropical cyclone:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF A TAMPA/MELBOURNE LINE. THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE HAS
PROVIDE MAIN FORCING/FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN TROPICAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

AS AMPLIFICATION OF CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
CONTINUES TONIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGGING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE Wilma INTO
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS WILL OCCUR BY 12Z MONDAY. AS OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS EVENING...AND
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM...TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EVIDENT
IN LATEST SOUNDINGS...THIS RISK APPEARS RELATIVELY SUBSTANTIAL.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES
EXISTS...PARTICULARLY LATE TONIGHT IN OUTER BANDS EAST/NORTHEAST OF
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT APPROACHES LANDFALL.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:11 PM)


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: Shear [Re: civil2183]
      #62498 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:10 PM

Quote:

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?




I used to chase tornadoes when I lived further north.

Been near several, and through two (one of which had not touched down yet - it went right over the top of me.)

You will hear it, unless you're in the middle of the hurricane and the entire house sounds like its going to come apart already, in which case loud is just loud (e.g. during Ivan last year, I doubt I would have heard a tornado before it got me, simply due to the lack of time to react from the time the sound was distinct from the hurricane's general noisefield to when the vortex got me.)

But in this case, where you're expecting tropical storm sustained winds, yes, you will hear it - provided it doesn't drop down right on top of you (which they can!)

Ivan last year kicked off a bunch of smaller tornadoes around here and an F3 that ripped through Marianna. The destruction path on the latter one was unreal; a friend of mine's home took a tree-spear through the roof; the next lot over was wiped completely clean - the house formerly there was cleanly removed from the foundation with the pieces distributed over a wide area.

Please don't take the threat of tornadoes lightly, and if you wake up in the middle of the night hearing something loud and odd......


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: danielw]
      #62499 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:11 PM

Quote:

I haven't looked at the NHC plots.

I came up with 25min N and 36min E over 3:30.
That would be 0.4N and 0.6E in decimals.
I use the dd mmm format from the aircraft, and convert it to decimals. Divide the minutes(mm) by 60 to get decimals.




Goes to show you what a fool's errand basing early radar fixes can turn out to be... Because now that she is firmly coming into range on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....I can better see a N component evolving... Oh man... IF YOU LIVE IN NAPELS OR ANYWHERE FROM TAMPA SOUTH FOR THAT MATTER, STAY ON THIS RADAR IMAGE! that's going to help you tremendously.

Particularly over the next 4 hours will be telling as to where this is going to landfall, such that you will be confident with ~7-8 hours lead time awareness... This particular type of incursion to the coast is not one that will have very abrupt changes in direction and/or distracting wobbles.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:14 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Oops [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62500 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:14 PM

Thanks for the Update Tip and Thunderbird.
I can only do so much.

If you post a Tornado Warning...Post the whole thing, please.
Not the link. It might be near someone here. And the link could/would delay their seeking safety. Thanks.


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JG
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62501 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:15 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I haven't looked at the NHC plots.

I came up with 25min N and 36min E over 3:30.
That would be 0.4N and 0.6E in decimals.
I use the dd mmm format from the aircraft, and convert it to decimals. Divide the minutes(mm) by 60 to get decimals.




Goes to show you what a fool's errand basing early radar fixes can turn out to be... Because now that she is firmly coming into range on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....I can better see a N component evolving... Oh man... IF YOU LIVE IN NAPELS OR ANYWHERE FROM TAMPA SOUTH FOR THAT MATTER, STAY ON THIS RADAR IMAGE! that's going to help you tremendously.

Particularly over the next 4 hours will be telling as to where this is going to landfall, such that you will be confident with ~7-8 hours lead time awareness... This particular type of incursion to the coast is not one that will have very abrupt changes in direction and/or distracting wobbles.




Is it my imagination or does the southern part of the eyewall look like it's trying to close off, north of the current track. If you look at this map, it does appear a more northern trend was starting this afternoon.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex1.gif


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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: Margie]
      #62502 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:16 PM

Consensus now is Cat 3 based on latest radar Dvorak's -- motion continues to NE -- I expect some of the discrepancy of time of landfall is that we can't extrapolate exactly the 15 mph current forward motion as it is expected to continue to accelerate -- therby landfall will prob be in 11-12hrs not the 15hrs it would take at 15mph

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Shear [Re: Genesis]
      #62503 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:16 PM

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?




I used to chase tornadoes when I lived further north.

Been near several, and through two (one of which had not touched down yet - it went right over the top of me.)

You will hear it, unless you're in the middle of the hurricane and the entire house sounds like its going to come apart already, in which case loud is just loud (e.g. during Ivan last year, I doubt I would have heard a tornado before it got me, simply due to the lack of time to react from the time the sound was distinct from the hurricane's general noisefield to when the vortex got me.)

But in this case, where you're expecting tropical storm sustained winds, yes, you will hear it - provided it doesn't drop down right on top of you (which they can!)

Ivan last year kicked off a bunch of smaller tornadoes around here and an F3 that ripped through Marianna. The destruction path on the latter one was unreal; a friend of mine's home took a tree-spear through the roof; the next lot over was wiped completely clean - the house formerly there was cleanly removed from the foundation with the pieces distributed over a wide area.

Please don't take the threat of tornadoes lightly, and if you wake up in the middle of the night hearing something loud and odd......

TAKE COVER!


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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
Re: Shear [Re: Genesis]
      #62505 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:17 PM

Please don't take the threat of tornadoes lightly, and if you wake up in the middle of the night hearing something loud and odd......

Anyone within the cone should remember to spend the majority of the storm passage in a safe environment. You might feel silly in the bathtub with a mattress over you and the kids but we had a local family (2 years ago) fly in one.
IT was the most amazing story I have ever heard.

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62506 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:17 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I haven't looked at the NHC plots.

I came up with 25min N and 36min E over 3:30.
That would be 0.4N and 0.6E in decimals.
I use the dd mmm format from the aircraft, and convert it to decimals. Divide the minutes(mm) by 60 to get decimals.




Goes to show you what a fool's errand basing early radar fixes can turn out to be... Because now that she is firmly coming into range on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....I can better see a N component evolving... Oh man... IF YOU LIVE IN NAPELS OR ANYWHERE FROM TAMPA SOUTH FOR THAT MATTER, STAY ON THIS RADAR IMAGE! that's going to help you tremendously.

Particularly over the next 4 hours will be telling as to where this is going to landfall, such that you will be confident with ~7-8 hours lead time awareness... This particular type of incursion to the coast is not one that will have very abrupt changes in direction and/or distracting wobbles.




Is it my imagination or does the southern part of the eyewall look like it's trying to close off, north of the current track. If you look at this map, it does appear a more northern trend was starting this afternoon.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex1.gif




Absolutely...And, I think when this completes we may have bigger problems then cat 2!


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JG
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62507 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:21 PM

Quote:



Absolutely...And, I think when this completes we may have bigger problems then cat 2!




So there it is. I can't wait to see the vortex messages close to 2300. I think we could be looking at another Charley situation with an intensifying storm hitting between Bonita Springs and Fort Myers. The second cold front and the "dry air" and the "shear" does not seem to be intimidating Wilma one iota.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: satellite steve]
      #62508 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:22 PM

Well, nice that somebody noticed! I was beginning to wonder if I should go back and make my text red / bold / large / all capital letters. No question that we now have a major hurricane that is intensifying as we watch. She is directly over the loop current now.

Since she's moving faster, my estimate that she'd intensify until about 1-2 am seems too late now, probably will peak earlier, just after midnight. Why does this always have to happen on the nights before work days? I haven't gone in early or with a decent amount of sleep for days now!

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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swimaway19
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62509 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:23 PM

Another question: Do you think that the windfield will expand more than projected before landfall?

--------------------
Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....



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