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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 134
Loc: East Central Florida 28.33N 80.81W
That's it for 2002
      #6236 - Sun Dec 01 2002 08:10 PM

Hurricane season is over starting today. The 2003 season begins on June 1st 2003, and we'll be around for that again.

Thanks everyone who wrote and helped out this year. The calm months of October and November were welcome after some tense moments in September.

Until 2003,

- Mike and John of CFHC
- [jc]


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Ed Onboard
Unregistered




Report from Western Carribean
      #6237 - Mon Dec 02 2002 02:21 PM

Greetings from the MS Rotterdam enroute to Costa Rica and Panama. Location: Southwest of Jamaica near 14N. Air Temp: 82; Sea Temp: 86; wind NW at 21kts - ship speed southwest at 24kts. Partly Cloudy with a few light rain showers. Sea state rough - 8 to 12 feet. Bettye and I are having a great time - Rotterdam is a nice ship! Amazing how warm the sea temp is. Hello to all!
Cheers,
Ed Dunham
CFHC Moderator


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: That's it for 2002
      #6238 - Mon Dec 02 2002 08:04 PM

Yep, that's all. Actually, November 30th was no big day as the hurricane season abnormally early this year with no new storms forming in October.

As for 2003...I am still up on the development of a La Nina by next summer. TWW (Jason Moreland) really awoke me to this possibility, and now that I am aware of the major cooling that is taking place in the W. Pac (this cold pool is beginning to rise to surface and move eastward), I am now on the "2003 La Nina bandwagon". LOL

Graycast 2003 comes out this Friday (the 6th), lets hope for more accuracy and less changes to each subsequent forecast. Also, don't be surprised if he starts out low this time around. I sorta' have feeling 2003 is going to be the opposite of 2002, the global climate factors are going to rearrange again by Spring and really pave the way for an active 2003 season. I think the intensity of the Cape Verde season will heavily henge on the Azores High. It could be rather active next year in contrast with 2001/2 even with a strong Azores High. If that same is weak next year, look out.

Happy Holidays!


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anonymous (HF)
Unregistered




Re: That's it for 2002
      #6239 - Mon Dec 02 2002 11:25 PM

here is my 2003 guesscast: 13-7-3. down the list to mindy. spread season, august through october most active, not the truncated, september-dominated sort of year 2002 was. even in a supposed 'down' year such as this we still had a fairly high number of named storms, don't suspect the supression of stronger activity will hold for '03. doubt ENSO will be a factor either, imagine more of a normal season with PDO keeping it slightly more active. atlantic SST profile is still trending towards warm overall as well, that shouldnt change with the thermohaline cycle still charged.
my mind has shifted to snow, as i'd like to see more of it this year. nothing on the horizon, but as a faithful bastardi watcher i'm catching the wintertime suggestions. here's to a revival of the caspian connection.
by the way, kevin, your bucs are good, even if they did get bested by the saints. i'd keep an eye on the falcons too, nfc south is full of dangerous teams. michael vick might just run a few circles around those bucs, better get warren sapp to accidentally break his legs.
HF 0423z03december


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
What's up guys?
      #6240 - Thu Dec 05 2002 01:30 AM

I had to log in for this post. The New Orleans Saints pulled off the big sweep as predicted by yours truly. We may be a game back in the division, but we're 2-0 vs. Tampa Bay.

Hey C Bros, Kevin, Ed, HF and everyone who hasn't posted on this thread. 2002 was a great season for me and one I will remember forever. While I didn't see any hurricane conditions, I had all the tropical storm action I could want (well maybe not, but...). As noted throughout the season, I was in rain from at least 7 different storms. Sure, some of it was busch league, but there were some intense events too. I was most proud of the 3 disputes I had with the big dogs. I called Dr. Gary Gray in May or June on his east of the Outer Banks escape alley prediction. I called Colorado State on their numberforecast (mine was closer but nothing to write home about). I wasn't alone in that argument. I also enjoyed calling Bastardi on not changing his landfall/intesity forecast after it was very clear he had the Northern Gulf Coast underpredicted.

Mostly, it was cool spending the season with you guys. Special thanks to the Cornelii. I can't make any predictions on 2003 right now. There are variables that could go lots of different ways. Hopefully you guys will post stories and guru commentary as you run across them, so that we can keep up with some of the trends associated with the major contributing factors.

Oh yeah. Saints still play the Ravens, Vikes, Bengals and Panthers. We've beaten most of the big boys. We had the hardest opening schedule in the history of the NFL, but we prevailed. 49ers, Bucs 2x, Packers, and Steelers, all felt the wrath of the Saints. While every game is tough, we'll be 11-5 or 12-4 come playoff time. See ya there!

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Gray's 2003 season forecast it out!
      #6241 - Fri Dec 06 2002 05:52 PM

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2002/dec2002/

Here are some observations on this forecast:
1. I'm going to come out and say this right away--from the reading of the factors, 2003 seems to have the earmarks of a dangerous hurricane season. The easterly QBO and few other factors with only very slight negative influenes will occur.
2. This forecast has also shown some signs of being conservative, especially with the development of a La Nina. There are some many factors, especially the increasing trade winds in the Pacifc, a developing high in the Pacific, and the upwelling under the eq. Pacific. The forecast stated these factors all favor the development of a La Nina by next summer--true--but the forecast only includes neutral conditions. HDP is already 100, which is high compared to the average of 71.

So, it appears we may finally be in for a season that is more in line 1996, 1998, 1999. Many people have consistently forecasted the US East Coast to get pounded. Well, 2003 may finally have to stuff to "get it done", so to speak. If the pattern is right, this could be a very bad season.


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(HF)
Unregistered




Re: Gray's 2003 season forecast it out!
      #6242 - Sat Dec 07 2002 01:46 PM

hey, the graycast and mine are somewhat similar. 12-8-3 and 13-7-3. honestly don't have much confidence from this far out, i'm hinging mostly on ENSO being neutral and the PDO phase locked in for the next couple of decades to edge the numbers up.. along with the SST profile in the atlantic being more or less above the long term average in recent years.
the numbers in recently have been well above the long term average, but considering the better ability to detect and classify storms than in years past i'm not as ready to call recent years unprecedented. i mean, willie mays was the first truly legendary black baseball player, unless you consider that many in the negro leagues before went unnoticed.
there was something in the graycast that annoyed me.. a reference to lili having been a major landfalling hurricane up there with Opal, fran and bret, of recent years. lili came in as a weak 2, if you want to count it for the fact that it HAD BEEN major, better count t.s. isidore, floyd, t.s. mitch, georges, bonnie, and bertha, etc..
of course the same little blurb about us being in a new era of increased storm activity is there, but as 2002 continued the trend of normal to above normal activity but no bit hit. the increased chances of major hurricane landfall are noted as usual, when the season forecast is above average.. and as usual you could probably say that no major hurricanes will hit the u.s. next year and turn out right. when you think about it.. add the damage up from all the landfalling major hurricanes to hit the u.s. in the last 10 years and it's about the same as what the tropical storms in the last 2 years did. if you want to call something a new, unprecedented era of hurricane activity, i'd start with that ridiculous fact.
HF 1844z07december


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Gray's 2003 season forecast it out!
      #6243 - Mon Dec 09 2002 07:51 PM

That last fact about comparing the recent TS's to all of the major hurricanes in the past ten years, and this whole new "era" of increased TC activity has been pitiful as far as US *hurricane* landfalls go.

At the same time (this is focusing on 2003), I do believe that we will see a differene in storm formation locations in 2003. 2001/2002, a strong Azores High squashed most waves that came off of Africa. Eventually the high weakened, but troughiness was beginning to increase off of the East Coast. That shut the Cape Verde areas down from having an effect on the US. In fact 2002 was dead as far as Cape Verde activity goes. So, we've really only had 1 down year, 2002.

With the NAO and AO being negative this winter, I'd expect that the Azores High would weaken some. Right now it is very strong, but the high has a habit of reversing it's state during the early summer of the following year, or so it seems. This being, you'd expect that the Cape Verde area will finally produce some storms starting around August 20th instead of September 10th. That is ususally too late to have a major East Coast landfalling year.

Also, take a look at the tracks in Gray's forecast. (1952, 1958, 1964, 1970, 1984) and notice something about the East Coast landfalls.
1952: 1 (FLA brush, landfall along Georgia/SC border)
1958: (2 NC coastal brushes)
1964: (2 FLA hits)
1970: (no EC hits, I should mention this is when the downturn began)
1984: (1 EC hit, 1 EC brush, 1 got fairly close to EC)
It seems to me that all of these years have a very specific bias toward Florida/SC/NC hits and brushes. I'm not sure I've ever seen such a strong trend towards to the EC in any of yearly analogs. Also, I'd expect 1970 and 1984 to be pulled in April or June, these years didn't have an Active ATC whereas 2003's ATC should be in "hyperdrive", typical of the busy seasons we've had since 1995. I should also note a couple of these years had strong Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico storms, but the East Coast bias of the storms really stood out to me.

Next year's seaosn should be different, more like 1996, 1998, and 1999 I feel (also capitalizing on 2000's failures). Although it is just to early to know what will happen with any certain, I can see changes comming.

Also, Super Typhoon Pongsona hit the Mariana Islands yesterday, winds of 135 knots at landfall. Guam sustained extensive amounts of damage, and Bush declared Guam a "major disaster area". Not good news.

Also, 5 day forecast (118 hours?) look like a distinct possiblity for 2003...should be interesting how the news media and general public respond if there are any threats shown next years beyond 36 hours.



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cooltiger
Unregistered




Re: Merry Christmas guys
      #6244 - Tue Dec 24 2002 11:59 PM

Thanks for all the info this past year. Stay safe and healthy.

And yes my Saints did it again despite beating Tampa twice.


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HF at home
Unregistered




zoe
      #6245 - Sun Jan 05 2003 12:01 PM

wasn't paying attention to anything, but apparently there was a very powerful cyclone in the south pacific near the end of december. found some reports saying it had 225mph winds, which is probably media sources sensationalizing by reporting gusts.. but they did say it topped cyclone tracy of 1974. hit the solomon islands.. if anybody knows more, let the rest of us know too.
HF 1544z05january


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: zoe
      #6246 - Sun Jan 05 2003 12:24 PM

Here is what I know:
1. Many deaths were feared, but there were NONE reported. I believe a ship came there or something.
2. The damage is awful, looks a lot like a Andrew, Hugo, Mitch, or Gilbert type storm came through. The satellite images also confirmed this.
3. Sustained winds were 200-210 Mph. 218 and 225 Mph gusts were recorded.

On another note...I read an article on another message board about the link between ENSO and the amount of TC's reaching the east Austrailan Coast. Some scientists there believe that Zoe (which reached eastern Austrailia in a greatly weakened form) and other TC's that reach the E. Austrailian Coast can signal new eras of strong and long-lived La Ninas. It's strange...if anybody has been watching the eq. Pacific lately, a cooling trend has been steadily occuring--especially when compared to past months. Could Zoe coincide with an upcoming La Nina? We'll see.


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: zoe
      #6247 - Sun Jan 05 2003 06:36 PM

Hey, I read about Zoe hitting the east coast of Australia. How could it, it was east of AUS heading east????

IHS,

Bill


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